It's been a surprisingly long offseason for former Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito. The 31-year-old is widely considered the best starting pitcher remaining in free agency and is coming off the third-best season of his career by bWAR.
Headed into the offseason, Giolito was projected to receive a modest, two-to-three-year contract in the $30-40 million range. Public opinion was split on the righty, though. Despite a 3.41 ERA and over 140 innings in his first year back from an internal brace procedure, his advanced metrics had him as one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
Giolito finished in the 12th percentile in xERA, 16th in xBA, and 30th percentile or worse in chase%, whiff%, K%, and BB%. The massive gap between expected data and actual data suggested the veteran was very lucky last season.
Despite the ugly metrics, nobody thought Giolito would be unsigned by the start of spring training. Giolito is still an experienced veteran who will find a home for 2026. Pitchers tend to get injured at the beginning of spring training, and someone will sign Giolito to fill that void. In an article predicting where the best remaining free agents will land, Bleacher Report named the Braves as the best fit for Giolito.
Former Red Sox, current free agent Lucas Giolito will provide value beyond what advanced numbers show
The Atlanta Braves have already dealt with a swath of injuries to their pitching staff to start the season. Atlanta has already placed Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep on the 60-day injured list and both will undergo arthroscopic surgery on their throwing arms.
The Braves dealt with a myriad of injuries in their rotation last season. They had 19 different pitchers start games for them in 2025, and have a lot of pitchers who have consistently dealt with health problems throughout their careers. Giolito, who is considered a workhorse, would be a perfect addition for them.
Lucas Giolito to the Braves makes the most sense but Trevor is hopeful his Twins might make the move
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) February 19, 2026
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In the span of an offseason, the narrative seems to have flipped on Giolito. While his 3.41 ERA may not be completely representative of his true talent, teams seem to be scared of his advanced numbers too much now. Even if Giolito regresses, his track record suggests he will take the ball every five days and at least post an ERA near four. There is still a lot of value in making close to 30 starts and having an ERA in the low-fours.
Any team that needs someone who will stay healthy should be calling the veteran righty. He is still squarely in his prime, and between June and August of last year, he had a 2.89 ERA. Giolito can be a key piece to any rotation this season, and whoever picks him up will be glad they did so.