For the second straight offseason, the Boston Red Sox have a starting pitcher reaching free agency who is eligible to receive the qualifying offer (QO). Last year, it was Nick Pivetta. Craig Breslow opted to extend Pivetta the QO, which at the time looked like a mistake, but ended up being a stroke of brilliance.
The QO is a one-year offer worth the average of the top 125 highest-paid players in baseball. This season, it has risen to $22.025 million from $21.05 million last season. Players can only be offered it once in their careers, and they must have spent the entire previous season with the same organization, making traded players ineligible. If a player declines the offer and signs with another team, the team the player was on receives draft pick compensation.
This season, Lucas Giolito is eligible to receive the qualifying offer from the Red Sox. He has a mutual option in his contract for $19 million, but it is unlikely that it will be picked up, making him a free agent for the second time in his career. The first time he hit free agency, in the offseason before 2024, he changed teams midseason, making him ineligible.
Giolito is coming off a resurgent 2025. He had a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings, making 26 starts. He struck out 121 batters and had a 2.1 bWAR. The righty will likely be one of the more coveted arms on the market this offseason. He won't receive ace money, but at just 31 years old, he will likely sign a multi-year contract and slot nicely into the middle of a team's starting rotation. Spotrac.com places his market value at around $20.5 million.
Usually, when a player is going to sign a contract around or higher than what the QO, it's smart for the team to extend it to them, knowing they likely won't accept it, opting to take a longer-term deal. Though Giolito may get long-term offers, there is a significant risk that he won't get the type of deal that would make turning down the QO worth it.
The risk of Lucas Giolito accepting the qualifying offer isn't worth the reward if he doesn't
If the Red Sox were to sign Alex Bregman to a deal with a $30 MM AAV and offered Lucas Giolito the QO and it was accepted ($22.025 MM), their Luxury Tax number for 2026 would already be at $257.47 MM.
— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) October 29, 2025
That’s with Nathaniel Lowe being non-tendered and Trevor Story opting in.… pic.twitter.com/qDcM0WnEZY
Though Giolito's baseball card numbers looked good this season, the "under the hood" stats weren't as pretty. The righty didn't rank in the 50th percentile or better in any of the predictive numbers. That may make other teams wary that this season was more of a one-off and could lower his value. That fact alone isn't the reason the Red Sox shouldn't offer it to him.
$22 million isn't a small amount of money to commit to a player. Boston has high-priced needs this offseason. With current extensions taking effect this offseason, the Sox are already closer to the luxury tax threshold than they might like to be. They will splash some significant cash to hopefully resign Alex Bregman and add another bat, plus the addition of a No. 2 starter. They know they will be going over that threshold, but probably do not want to go over by too much.
The QO is just a little too rich for the Sox's blood this offseason, and there's a high chance that Giolito will accept. The draft pick compensation would be nice, but is it worth risking to potentially lose the money the team may spend on the middle-of-the-order bat? Probably not.
Saying all of this doesn't mean bringing the veteran back is a bad idea. Giolito was successful with Boston and brings a very solid floor that some of the younger pitchers in the organization don't. If the Sox can agree to a team-friendly deal rather than the QO, that would be great, but risking the QO on him isn't worth it.