The Boston Red Sox's Opening Day starting rotation has been largely determined since the start of spring training. Garrett Crochet is their obvious ace, and he'll be followed by Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez, Brayan Bello and one player yet to be determined.
Many Red Sox reporters and insiders believe Johan Oviedo has the easiest path to the No. 5 spot as an offseason trade acquisition and after his spring training improvements — he's allowed just two runs on eight hits over 11.1 Grapefruit League innings. He's also cut down on walks, with six so far, compared to 14 strikeouts.
But two young Red Sox pitchers are also putting on a show in spring training and Boston fans would love to see one (or both) on the Opening Day roster in some capacity. Payton Tolle and Connelly Early debuted surprisingly early in September of last season and both managed the big leagues quite well for their ages and experience levels. This spring, they look even better.
Even so, Early and Tolle aren't likely to start the coming season in the majors. Not only are the Red Sox stacked with pitching depth, including a full rotation with Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval still rehabbing, service time conditions could keep the two top prospects in the minor leagues for at least a few weeks. But should they?
Many Red Sox fans will be disappointed if Connelly Early and Payton Tolle start the season in Triple-A
Tolle has posted a 2.53 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 10.2 innings and Early has a 1.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 17 frames. Both of their latest appearances were particularly eye-catching. On March 17, Tolle clocked four scoreless, three-hit innings with five strikeouts and a walk against the Atlanta Braves. The following day, Early one-hit the New York Yankees' A-squad (minus Aaron Judge), fanned seven batters and walked two across five innings.
The two top pitching prospects have performed so well this spring training that some fans will be upset to see them optioned to start the season, especially given the news that Suárez isn't properly built up after the World Baseball Classic. The outrage would be a bad look for Breslow and Red Sox management, particularly if Early and Tolle finish the spring stronger than Oviedo.
But Oviedo has also had a great spring, and his status as a trade addition could give him priority over Early and Tolle in the Red Sox's eyes. Not only do the two young pitchers have years of options left, if they spend a few weeks in the minor leagues, Boston will retain a full year of service time on their contracts.
Early needs to spend 35 days in the minor leagues and Tolle 46 for the Red Sox to maintain the year of service time. The Red Sox have been stingy with top prospects in recent years, like when they refused to call Roman Anthony up until there were so many injuries in the big league outfield that they couldn't avoid it any longer.
If history is any indication, Boston will prioritize Early and Tolle's service time to have them under contract for as long as possible — whether fans think that's right or not is up to them. But the Red Sox are much less desperate for quality starting pitching than they used to be, and even without Early and Tolle in the Opening Day rotation, it'll still be a more solid group than it has in at least a few seasons.
Still, the American League East is one of the tightest divisions in MLB and every win will count towards the Sox's playoff hopes. If either Early or Tolle is the best option for the rotation, the Red Sox can afford to eat the year of service time to field the best possible team. With Opening Day less than a week away, fans won't have to wait much longer to see if they'll prioritize winning or follow the money.