Ceddanne Rafaela's 2025 with Red Sox is comparable to this MVP candidate's production

The Boston Red Sox ended the first half as the hottest team in baseball, fueled by the breakout of Ceddanne Rafaela.

After the first month and a half of the season, with Roman Anthony trying to knock down the door to the majors, there were calls to bench or send down the young Curaçaoan. It took until June 1, when the righty was hitting .239 with a .643 OPS, to put everything together, but once he did, it was fireworks.

Since June 1, Rafaela is hitting .316 with a 1.004 OPS, 11 home runs, and 28 RBIs. He has been one of the best hitters in baseball, and a driving factor in the Red Sox's turnaround from 28-32 on May 31, to 53-45 at the All-Star break. In the last 13 games, where the Sox are 12-1, he has a .386/.413/.886 slash line, good for a 1.299 OPS.

His overall numbers aren't as impressive due to the slow first two months but are still greatly improved, a .271 average and .797 OPS. When Alex Cora named him the opening day center fielder at the very early in spring training, some questioned the move. His defense, and now this breakout, have proved Cora right.

Despite the red-hot final month and a half, Rafaela missed out on the Midsummer Classic. However, there's a player who made the game whose numbers aren't far off from Rafaela's. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs started in centerfield for the National League in Atlanta. He is having a nuclear breakout this season and is in the NL MVP conversation.

Ceddanne Rafaela and Pete Crow-Armstrong breakout's are more alike than many appreciate

PCA ended the first half hitting .265 with an .846 OPS, 25 home runs, and 71 RBIs. This came out of nowhere for Cubs fans after he hit just .237 with a .670 OPS in 2024. If you compare PCA's 2024 to Rafaela's first two months, the numbers are very similar. If you compare both since June 1, Rafaela even stands out because Crow-Armstrong is hitting .255 with an .821 OPS.

Based on advanced metrics, both players are shockingly similar. Crow-Armstrong and Rafaela rank in the 54th and 62nd percentiles in expected batting average, respectively. They are 87th and 80th percentiles in Barrel%, first and second percentiles in chase%, eighth and tenth percentiles in walk%.

The kicker to everything on the hitting side is that Rafaela and Crow-Armstrong are the best two fielders in baseball. According to Baseball Savant, PCA's Fielding Run Value of 16 and Rafaela's 15 are ranked one and two in all of MLB. Though this is no surprise for Cubs fans as their centerfielder finished last year with a FRV of 16, Rafaela only had a FRV of 1 after splitting time between center and short.

It isn't a perfect comparison, but both fan bases are seeing what each of their future superstars can do. Both players have made incredible leaps in performance this season. There were certainly questions around what the true potential of both players was heading into this season, and by the end of the first half, many of those questions have been answered. Even if both players don't sustain this level of play for the rest of their careers, and they likely won't for every season, knowing that this could be the outcome of any season will excite both fan bases for years to come.

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