Another offseason, another round of trade buzz around Jarren Duran. What else is new for the Boston Red Sox? But here's the thing about Duran: Until the Red Sox front office stops pricing Duran as if we were still in 2024 and starts pricing Duran appropriately, meaningful trade offers will be few and far between.
There's an argument that Boston should strongly consider keeping Duran at this point, given his value has dropped too far, and he's good insurance against Roman Anthony's lack of durability.
But if the Red Sox are going to forge ahead with a trade, they might struggle if they are still holding onto the '24 version of Duran. According to an anonymous National League executive (per The Boston Globe's Tim Healey), "It's almost like [the Red Sox are] chasing the ghosts of 2024" when it comes to Duran.
The Red Sox need to stop overestimating Jarren Duran's market value
Healey laid out the three options for the Red Sox when it comes to Duran: (1) non-tender him (and walk away with nothing), (2) tender and trade him, or (3) tender and keep him. The second option is what most people following the Red Sox assume will happen. But that would have to involve the Red Sox coming to terms with Duran's actual value (not his value inside their clubhouse), and knowing that a trade return won't be as satisfying as it would've been a year or two ago.
When Duran's trade value was at its peak (immediately following his 2024 All-Star season), he was 28 years old, coming off an eighth-place finish in American League MVP voting. Now, he's 30, coming off two consecutive disappointing seasons. He's not seen by any contender as a foundational piece, nor is he young enough any longer to be called a high-upside addition for a rebuilding organization.
The Red Sox have reportedly had numerous opportunities over the past couple of years to capitalize on the San Diego Padres' interest in Duran. And while that ship still may not have left port, San Diego's offer at this point must look entirely depressing compared to what it was only a year ago.
If Boston wants Duran gone, they're just going to have to lean into that discomfort and accept the underwhelming return. Tendering and keeping Duran will come with a higher expense than last year. MLB Trade Rumors projects Duran for an $11.1 million arbitration salary compared to last year's $7.7 million.
Boston was reportedly looking for a frontline starter in their attempts to package Duran at the deadline. To no one's shock, teams weren't interested. It's time the Red Sox wake up fully to the reality of Duran's actual trade value. Everyone else did a long time ago.
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