It's safe to say the Boston Red Sox haven't lived up to the lofty expectations set for them before this season. Their shocking trade of Rafael Devers has put them in an even stranger position, especially since they're worse off than before, and they were only a .500-ish team.
The Red Sox are on a five-game losing streak since dropping their series against Devers and his new club in San Francisco. Their offense has disappeared, and they average nearly two fewer runs per game without Devers in the lineup. Still, Boston sees itself as a buyer ahead of the trade deadline.
MLB insider Jeff Passan of ESPN doesn't see eye-to-eye with Craig Breslow on that front. In Passan's June 24 ranking of the 50 best trade deadline candidates, Alex Bregman and Jarren Duran lead the list, which suggests the Red Sox may blow up their roster before the second half.
Passan's perspective of the Red Sox as sellers is probably more realistic than Breslow's assertions that they're a better team without Devers, but Boston isn't dead yet. The season only just reached its halfway point, and if the Sox play their cards right at the deadline by adding another starting pitcher and an impact bat (admittedly a tall order), they could play their way back into the playoff conversation.
Bregman's agent, Scott Boras, recently shared that he'd be willing to sign a midseason extension with Boston if it approached him about a deal, which it absolutely must do in the wake of the Devers trade. The infielder's willingness to sign an extension should dash the likelihood of a potential trade, unless the Red Sox botch the final month leading up to the trade deadline. Passan placed a 10% chance on a potential Bregman trade, but after the extension update, those odds seem even smaller.
Jeff Passan's trade deadline predictions paint the Red Sox as sellers
Duran is a much more probable trade candidate, whether Boston becomes a seller or not. Roman Anthony's arrival in the big leagues and Masataka Yoshida's impending return have reinforced the scale of the Red Sox's outfield logjam. Duran's recent MVP candidacy and three-plus years of control on his contract would make him easy to move, and Passan's estimation of a 25% chance he gets traded seems a bit on the low end.
Passan also named Walker Buehler and Aroldis Chapman as possible trade candidates. They're both on one-year deals and are much more likely to be traded as rentals. He listed both at a 35% chance to be dealt, which seems optimistic for Buehler, who's posted the worst season of his career so far. He has quite a history of success in the postseason, however.
If the Red Sox still see themselves as contenders, as Breslow claims, Chapman would be key to their future. Boston's offense can't manage to get more than a few runs of separation from any of its opponents, and Chapman's lights-out stuff has kept the Red Sox in many close games. They often go on to lose those games due to the incompetence of their bats in clutch moments, so Chapman could still be dealt for a return if Boston continues to slip down the American League East standings.
Passan said in early June that he still saw the Red Sox as a playoff team. That was before the Devers trade, however, and his trade deadline predictions indicate that he may have changed his mind. Boston still has time to prove early June Passan right by trading for an impact bat to bring life back to its offense. Until the Red Sox do that, they'll be the poster club for the definition of insanity — doing the same thing every day but expecting a different result.