Barring a complete implosion, the Boston Red Sox's status as a playoff team isn't going anywhere. As of September 3, the Sox have a 97.1 percent chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. On June 23, their chances sat at just 10.5 percent.
The Red Sox have entered a bit of a slump as they ushered in the final month of the season, losing six of their last eight games, including a pivotal, tie-breaker-determining series against the New York Yankees. From September 3-6, Boston will face another tough division rival in the Baltimore Orioles.
Despite losing their most recent series to the lowly Colorado Rockies, the Orioles have played decent baseball lately. They've won eight of their last 12 games, took series against the first-place Tampa Bay Rays, beat the St. Louis Cardinals and swept the Athletics.
Baltimore isn't out of the playoff race yet. The Wild Card could feature three American League East teams as the AL Central and West largely fail to climb the ladder.
Red Sox face Orioles in Baltimore as they hope to push past Blue Jays, Guardians and into third Wild Card spot
The Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are tied for last place in the East with 69-71 records. They also share that record with the Texas Rangers, who have been near the third Wild Card spot for weeks but haven't been able to hold onto it. The Cleveland Guardians hold the spot with a 70-69 record as Boston heads into Baltimore.
The O's have a golden opportunity to sneak into the third Wild Card spot by running into the slumping Sox at just the right time. Boston's rotation is exhausted — the Red Sox delayed Sonny Gray's start, Ranger Suarez hasn't looked sharp in at least a month and Jake Bennett has 93.2 innings on his arm in his rookie season. Willson Contreras is on the injured list, Ceddanne Rafaela is battling a quad issue and Caleb Durbin is in a mini-slump at the plate. Baltimore will also face a struggling Adley Rutschman, who's batting just .170/.254/.245 over 15 games since coming to Boston.
The Red Sox and Orioles have been quite evenly matched this season. Before Thursday's series opener, Boston has a 5-4 edge on the season series, which it should be able to maintain given its superior pitching and record.
Baltimore will be determined, though, with the third Wild Card spot in sigh after missing the postseason last year. Winning the series against the Red Sox would give the Orioles a leg-up going into their next two matchups against some of their biggest competition: the Guardians and Blue Jays. The AL Wild Card picture could look very different, particularly for Boston's division rivals, over the next two weeks.
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