The Boston Red Sox recently added pitching prospect Hunter Dobbins and outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia to the 40-man roster to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
The Rule 5 Draft occurs on Dec. 11 this year. Boston could add someone who went unprotected on another team as it did last Winter Meetings with the additions of Justin Slaten and Mickey Gasper. It's safe to say that those were great pickups.
However, the Sox could also lose someone they didn't protect. Last season, they lost pitcher Ryan Fernandez, who had a fantastic year out of the bullpen for the St. Louis Cardinals. They could also lose someone they will inevitably get back when the team that selected them doesn't keep them on their Major League roster (e.g., Shane Drohan and Noah Song).
With the draft so close, who should Red Sox fans be worried about still potentially losing?
Fans probably don't need to wonder about most of the hitting prospects. Allan Castro and Blaze Jordan are the top hitters eligible to be drafted, and both finished the year in Double-A (with neither having great seasons).
Despite the lack of hitters, plenty of pitchers are in danger of being taken by another team.
5 prospects the Boston Red Sox could lose in the Rule 5 draft
Angel Bastardo - RHP
Angel Bastardo enjoyed a solid breakout campaign in 2023 and looked to make waves in Double-A in 2024. We saw some growing pains, but the flashes of brilliance were there. However, he suffered an injury on June 5, which led to season-ending Tommy John surgery.
If not for the injury, Bastardo likely would've been someone the Red Sox needed to protect, or they would have lost him. The injury complicates things, though. Boston isn't going to put Bastardo on the 40-man roster only to 60-day him because that would start his options. That would create a race against time like we saw with Bryan Mata.
However, another team might be willing to do so. They will get to stash Bastardo without having to commit to him pitching at all this year. Another team might want to take the shot.
Brendan Cellucci - LHP
Brendan Cellucci is a left-handed reliever who had easily his best season in the minor leagues in 2024. He posted phenomenal numbers in Double-A before getting a cup of coffee in Triple-A (where he admittedly didn't post great stats).
Cellucci recorded a 3.07 ERA, .199 BAA, 1.38 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings in Double-A. However, he allowed 10 runs in six innings in Triple-A, which severely inflated his numbers.
Despite that, Cellucci showed a lot of promise in 2024 and another team could be interested in stealing him. The fact that he's a lefty doesn't help the Red Sox in this scenario, either. It would not be shocking if a team decided to take a chance on a left-handed reliever who made it to Triple-A in the Rule 5 Draft.
Grant Gambrell - RHP
Grant Gambrell had a massive breakout season in 2023. The 2024 season saw him as the Opening Day starter for the Triple-A Worcester Red Sox.
Gambrell wasn't perfect, but he was doing quite a few things right. The right-handed pitcher posted a 4.09 ERA, .262 BAA, and 1.42 WHIP in 18 appearances (16 starts). He struck out 65 batters in 83 2/3 innings.
There were two issues with his 2024 season. The strikeouts were low, and Gambrell didn't pitch in a game after July 25. If he stayed healthy, maybe we would've seen the Red Sox give him a chance at the end of the year. Instead, he isn't on the 40-man. Another team might want to look at a controllable starter with good numbers across 20 appearances (two starts in 2023) in Triple-A.
Robert Kwiatkowski - RHP
Robert Kwiatkowski could be a fun choice for another team because the right-handed reliever started throwing a knuckleball last season.
Kwiatkowski enjoyed a phenomenal 2024 campaign. He posted a 2.86 ERA, .215 BAA, and 1.11 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A. Kwiatkowski actually had a better ERA and WHIP in his short stint with Worcester. He also struck out 71 batters and walked just 25 in 78 2/3 innings.
Kwiatkowski had phenomenal numbers and even collected four saves. His knuckleball was called "disgusting" by fellow prospects Elih Marrero and David Sandlin. He's even made it to Triple-A and continued dominating there.
Kwiatkowski feels very much like a prospect the Red Sox could lose during the Rule 5 Draft, and his new knuckleball may only add to his appeal.
Christopher Troye - RHP
Christopher Troye was one of the breakout relievers of 2023. The right-handed pitcher put up elite numbers across the board while pitching in High-A and Double-A.
However, he came out of the gate struggling in 2024. His fastball velocity was down, and the walks were up. Troye was placed on the reserve list in May with 12.15 ERA, .292 BAA, and 2.25 WHIP. He didn't return until the middle of June.
After returning, he looked much more like the 2023 version. He clocked better fastball velocity and a drastic change in things like ERA. Troye posted sub-3.00 ERAs in July and August.
He finished the year with a 4.90 ERA, .220 BAA, and 1.49 WHIP in 28 appearances. Troye struck out 60 batters compared to 31 walks in 45 innings.
The overall numbers don't look great, but it was a tale of two halves for Troye. Teams will see his 2023 and the strong end to his 2024 season and could be enamored. This is a reliever who can hit high-90s on his fastball and has electric off-speed stuff. Troye is absolutely not safe from being snatched up.
Wild-Card entry
Yordanny Monegro could be selected by what would likely be a miserable team. The right-handed pitcher hasn't appeared in Double-A yet, so it would have to be a team okay with having him in their bullpen despite that low experience, which is unlikely. The Red Sox clearly protected Monegro from the draft by limiting his exposure at the end of last season. He's one of the best pitching prospects in the system, though. Maybe someone pulls the trigger on it.
Michael Fulmer is also a likely candidate to be selected. However, he isn't a prospect, so the righty is not included in the formal list here.