Edward Cabrera #27 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on August 05, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
A few different names that the Red Sox have asked for include shortstop Miguel Rojas and infielder Joey Wendle. Both would make sense for the Red Sox, who have a lack of MLB-ready depth behind middle infielders Trevor Story and Christian Arroyo. Both are defensive specialists who could either be plugged into a starting role or be utilized as utility men across the infield.
Also mentioned in the reports is that the Red Sox are a potential partner as the Marlins seek to improve by trading from their pitching surplus of Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera, and Jesús Luzardo. Though the Marlins have a hole in the outfield, they have asked for first baseman Triston Casas in discussions.
The only realistic trade involving Triston Casas would have to include Pablo Lopez, though the Red Sox could hesitate even then. Casas is the Red Sox No. 2 prospect and MLB’s No. 25 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, but he’s also ready to take over as the team’s starting first baseman in 2023 after posting a .766 OPS in 27 games in 2022.
The Marlins have also asked about the Red Sox’ No. 3 prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, who could meet the Marlins’ need in the outfield or meet the Red Sox’ short term need in the middle infield. Trading either Casas or Rafaela would be a tough loss for the Red Sox, and there may be other ways to add to the rotation without giving up either of the top prospects.
Which Marlins pitcher best fits the Red Sox?
Edward Cabrera is entering his age-25 season. After seven miserable starts in 2021, he showed much improvement in 2022, gaining better control over the strike zone. He still walks more hitters than 90% of pitchers, but a 11.3 BB% in 2022 was better than a 15.8% in 2021. His strikeouts also improved from an already solid 23.3 K% to an impressive 25.8 K%. His HR/9 fell from 2.1 to 1.3. Overall, these improvements led to a 3.01 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 4.1 BB/9, and 9.4 K/9 in 14 starts and 71.2 innings.
Batted ball data supports the change in Cabrera’s home run rate, as his 47.8 Hard Hit% fell to 33.3% in 2022, which was in the 83rd percentile (per Baseball Savant). His SwStr% (percentage of swings and misses) improved from 11.8% to 13.3%, and his Whiff% increased from 27.3% to 31.2% (86th percentile).
Still, with such a high number of walks, the question has to be asked – how valuable is Edward Cabrera if he can’t limit his walks? He improved his ERA and FIP in 2022, and his 4.12 xFIP shows that his HR/FB% could still drop in 2023. At 24, Cabrera would be a good fit for the Red Sox as a backend starter with room to develop.
Trevor Rogers is a former NL Rookie of the Year runner-up who finished with a 2.64 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 3.1 BB/9, and 10.6 K/9 in 2021. 2022 was very different, as he posted a 5.47 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 3.8 BB/9, and 8.9 K/9 in 107.0 IP. The tale of two Rogers makes him a more unreliable acquisition – unless the Red Sox can fix him.
Rogers FIP shows that he wasn’t really as bad as his ERA suggests. A 9.8 H/9 can account for a higher run total, but it’s a bit hard to pinpoint the exact reason for such a high number of hits – his BABIP increased from .307 to .330 and his 13.2 HR/FB% is a little higher than expected, but neither of these were glaring issues. Unless he’s the cheapest option, Rogers is an underwhelming acquisition who has a positive track record.
Jesús Luzardo finally broke out in 2022, as the former top prospect posted a 3.32 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 3.1 BB/9, and 10.8 K/9 in 2022. Luzardo hit the 60-day IL due to a left forearm strain, but it didn’t seem to slow him down, as he was even better after returning from his injury in August (3.03 ERA, 2.87 FIP). He finished his season on October 3rd with a 6 inning, 12 strikeout, 0 ER masterpiece against the Atlanta Braves.
It’s a bit of a small sample size to rely on Luzardo. The strikeouts have always been there, but he had to figure out how to limit his Home Runs and walks – he figured it out. His fastball velocity ticked up from 95.8 to 94.6 as the wOBA from the pitch fell from .450 to .306.
His changeup became one of his best pitches after lowering its usage. His Hard Hit% of 39.1% (39th percentile) is high, but it didn’t affect his Home Run rate in 2022. This was the first season that Luzardo has topped 100 innings, so Luzardo has to prove he can sustain his success across a full season.
Alex Verdugo of the Boston Red Sox watches a foul ball in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on April 28, 2022 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) /
What would a potential Red Sox-Marlins trade look like?
The Marlins are seeking two types of players – outfielders and controllable, young talent. This list excludes prospects as the Marlins are said to be seeking improvements to the 2023 team (per Jackson and Mish). Perhaps the Marlins see Ceddanne Rafaela as someone who could contribute soon, but they may just be exploring how willing the Red Sox are to include him. Still, unless the return is Pablo Lopez, Rafaela should be off limit in these talks. As should Triston Casas.
The Red Sox don’t have a surplus of outfielders on the roster, but they do have two players the Marlins could be interested in – Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran. Given that Verdugo is just a few months older than the former top prospect Duran, neither is really a “controllable young star,” but Duran is under team control through the 2028 season, while Verdugo is only under control through 2024. That raises Duran’s value, though he really doesn’t have much trade value. The 26-year-old has failed to catch on in the majors, hitting just .221/.283/.363 in 2022 with below average defense. Verdugo could be more likely to go.
Red Sox-Marlins Trade No. 1
Red Sox Acquire: SP Trevor Rogers, INF Joey Wendle Marlins Acquire: OF Alex Verdugo
This is a trade to land both a pitcher and a middle infielder. From the Marlins’ perspective, they keep their four best starters with plenty of options for a #5 starter, and they lose a backup utility infielder, while gaining a starting outfielder with two years of control. From the Red Sox perspective, they add a starter with more upside than Nick Pivetta and a 2B to rotate with Christian Arroyo, but the outfield is left in poor shape with Jarren Duran stepping up in RF barring another addition. This trade doesn’t help or hurt either team too much.
Red Sox-Marlins Trade No. 2
Red Sox Acquire: SP Edward Cabrera, INF Joey Wendle Marlins Acquire: OF Alex Verdugo, 1B Bobby Dalbec
Would the Marlins be willing to give up Edward Cabrera for this? Well, considering they discussed moving him for Brendan Rodgers before signing Jean Segura (per Jon Heyman, NY Post), the Marlins are willing to move Cabrera if it fills a need. Not only does this help their outfield, but the Marlins would also add Bobby Dalbec, a year removed from 25 HR and a .792 OPS, to play first base. The Red Sox again add their new SP and 2B, and with Casas ready to takeover at 1B, Dalbec is expendable. This trade would depend on whether the Marlins get a better offer, but both teams benefit in this scenario.
Red Sox-Marlins Trade No. 3
Red Sox Acquire: SP Pablo Lopez Marlins Acquire: 1B Triston Casas
This is probably the offer the Marlins were seeking Triston Casas in. Are the Marlins seeking a Tyler Mahle level return of several mid-range prospects, or a Luis Castillo level return of a top-25 prospect? Given that they’re even asking about Casas, the Marlins have a high price tag on Lopez. Perhaps too high of a price tag. This is not a trade the Red Sox can afford to make, as Casas has the talent to be one of the cornerstones of the Red Sox’ lineup in the coming years.
The first two trade scenarios are the likeliest, but regardless, the Red Sox aren’t making a trade with the Marlins without giving up MLB-ready talent. This shows why the two sides are yet to make a trade, and why they might not be able to reach a deal. If the Red Sox and Marlins can find middle ground, however, the Marlins are an excellent partner for the Red Sox to booster both their rotation and middle infield depth.
