Previewing the 2023 Boston Red Sox rotation

The Red Sox rotation could swing high or low

The Red Sox rotation is now set at least until spring training begins if you look at their current depth chart. Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha have been cut from the herd, and management has expressed no genuine desire for a reunion. Slowly they drift away. Just another roster-free agency divorce.

Names have been bandied about with a shirking list of available arms. As have a few others, Seth Lugo has had his 15 minutes of Red Sox rumors until signing with the Padres. Chaim Bloom will sign a few more pitchers who may be known only to their agents, families, and those too meshed in metrics that therapy and medications will not help.

So let’s take a peek at the names projected with the assumption that roster shifts will happen. Time for baseball, not the never-ending drama of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. That said, the big divider will be spring training, where a breakdown will happen, a youngster will shine, and a veteran may surprise. Here are the projected five.

Is Chris Sale David Price redux?

What will $60 MM over two years get you? In baseball, it got the Red Sox 48.1 innings from lefty Chris Sale. Sale is now 34 years old and on the cusp of joining that pantheon of bad Red Sox contracts. In 2022 Sale became a diagnostic tool for a legion of resident orthopedic specialists. Pick a body part, and Sale found a way to injure it.

Trying to discover a positive in Sale’s 5.2 innings tossed is the heater is back. Sale checked in at 94.5 MPH, and his devastating slider tipped the radar at 79.2 MPH. Both those numbers align with his Boston salad days of 2017-2018. And remember his change to top off a solid three-pitch nightmare delivered with precision.

Sale has some serious professional pride to deal with as he attempts to reinvigorate his career, which will be – at least from my perspective – a motivator. If the speed factor holds, Sale will not have to reinvent himself.

The significant lifeline for Sale will be a rebuilt bullpen, so going deep into games such as seven+ innings will not be mandatory. The smart move is to keep Sale under 200 innings and away from being among the league leaders in pitches tossed. With his competitive nature harnessing Sale will be a task for manager Alex Cora.

I expect Sale to be what they need, an Ace to lead a rotation awash in question marks and concerns, especially Sale himself. Sale has much to prove and prevent the Red Sox from looking at a David Price contract providing rumors of his possible departure are merely off-season fluff.

Nick Pivetta would be solid at the bottom of the rotation for the Sox

Righty Nick Pivetta is called a “gamer” regarding his pitching. Pivetta can occasionally be a very good hurler or a nightmare, but he is more than acceptable as a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. The issue is where he belongs, and circumstances have placed Pivetta in the other direction. Top of the rotation, possibly slated right behind Sale.

Pivetta uses a basic three-pitch approach – fastball, curve, and slider. Don’t expect high 90s heat or pinpoint control. At 30 years old, what you see is what you will get from the Canadian native.

In 2022 Pivetta made a league-best 33 starts; some were a horror show, and others a thing of beauty. Pivetta’s April numbers were forgettable (0-3, 8.27), and his second half was rocky, especially in September when he may have run out of gas; for the season, lefties checked in at .252 and righties at .254. Home and away showed little difference. Pivetta’s ERA (4.56) and FIP (4.42) mirrored each other.

Pivetta is into his arbitration years, and that translates into coin. In the new world of baseball, you can collect a small fortune, not pitching. Just ask James Paxton. But in 2023, the quick-working Pivetta may be placed in a situation where too much is expected out of limited ability.

Make or break season for Sox’s Tanner Houck?

This is the show-me season for righty Tanner Houck as the team has positioned the 26-year-old as a starter. In 2022 Houck made just four starts (1-2, 4.32) and was statistically more effective out of the bullpen (4-2, 2.70, 8 saves), but that was then, and this is now.

Just a few short years back, Houck was a highly regarded prospect for Boston but to put that evaluation in perspective, Jeter Downs was their top-ranked prospect.

At this point, Houck is a two-pitch hurler with a mid-90s fastball and a slider. Houck occasionally mixes in a splitter, but that number one has a natural sink to it, as demonstrated by a career 0.5 HR/9 and 49.5 GB%. Both are good omens for a reliever in a bases-jammed situation and a factor that may eventually have Houck return to the ‘pen.

Speaking of the ‘pen Houck was more effective in that role in 2021, so history may not be on his side if a bullpen need develops. Houck is especially tough on righties tossing a career .199 against them versus a respectable .232 for lefties. Houk may end up being this generation’s, Bob Stanley.

With the recent addition of Corey Kluber, Houck could be high on the list for the odd man out in the rotation, especially in April with a game lean schedule. But historically, pitching depth is always a plus. Just glance back at 2009 when Boston was projected to have the proverbial boat load of starters, and by the end of the season, Paul Byrd was getting starts.

Can Whitlock be the Boston Ace?

The starter role for right-hander Garrett Whitlock was settled with the addition of Chris Martin and Kelsey Jansen. Set up and closer were two roles Whitlock accomplished in performing. Just how promising? The Red Sox extended Whitlock for four years and possibly two more with options. Like all RSN, management saw what they liked and moved quickly – a rare happening.

If fans wish to be nervous about Whitlock, it is right there with season-ending hip surgery. That condition could be an issue as the innings add up in 2023. The next potential negative is Whitlock’s numbers as a starter (1-1, 4.15) in a small nine-game sample. Otherwise, what is there not to like?

Whitlock posted a 4.8 BB% and a 26.4 K% in 2022 with command of a hard fastball (95.6 MPH), a chase ’em slider, and a change. The slider and change come in at the low 80s on the gun and are delivered with precision.

Whitlock has the potential to be an ace of this staff, but we have only witnessed glimpses of that. If Whitlock can give this team 30+ starts and 180+ innings, that contract may be the best bargain in baseball, but that will only be known by late September.

Have the Red Sox finally developed a homegrown starter?

The Red Sox organization has yet to churn out a competent starter since the Truman administration, or maybe Obama? That will soon change with Brayan Bello.

Bello’s introduction to MLB could have been more promising, but so was that of Roger Clemens. Bello became fresh meat until September, and the 23-year-old righty posted a 2-4, 2.59 ERA in his last six starts. That, undoubtedly, is what the metric folks at Fenway have caught their attention like shiny keys.

Scouting and performance show Bello brings three solid pitches to the hill, including a fastball consistently in the upper 90s. What impressed me about the Bello of 2022 was his ability to put a hammering into the background and concentrate on his next start.

Can Bello be the future Ace? That projection is questionable, but his ceiling is relatively high, and after the long list of Jay Groome’s et al., this development branch of the operation needs a break or two, and Bello may be just the arm to accomplish that.

The Red Sox extended Whitlock, which signaled a change in management philosophy regarding buying out arbitration and potentially a free agency year or two. With Bello, they may approach that.

Red Sox need depth, health, and a world of luck

The optimum word to describe this rotation is if. If Sale is back to good health. If Whitlock is suffering, no recovery issues. If Bello can make all of 2023 his September of 2022. If Pivetta can make 33 productive starts. If Houck can start as well as he demonstrated his ability to relieve?

This rotation lacks depth, and that depth provides a comfort zone. Chaim Bloom may wait out the market and get either Eovaldi or Wacha on a short deal – now a Boston specialty. But, alas, Eovaldi is gone to the Rangers. Will Kluber be that depth?

The depth could be Bryan Mata, whose Tommy John Surgery tossed a wrench into his development. Mata is back and will get his reps in Worcester, awaiting a Boston failure or physical breakdown. After Mata, there is a slide on possible developmental talent that could impact 2023. All the more important is to add depth.

Depth also brings into play Paxton. Paxton had an extensive recovery and should be all set (hopefully) for 2023. So here comes another “if,” and that is having Paxton come in with a 2017-2019 performance. Paxton could be the most critical piece in the rotation, and Paxton could be the security blanket or make it a six-man and an excellent rotation, especially if Houck or Whitlock are needed elsewhere.