Previewing the 2023 Boston Red Sox rotation

Nick Pivetta would be solid at the bottom of the rotation for the Sox

Righty Nick Pivetta is called a “gamer” regarding his pitching. Pivetta can occasionally be a very good hurler or a nightmare, but he is more than acceptable as a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. The issue is where he belongs, and circumstances have placed Pivetta in the other direction. Top of the rotation, possibly slated right behind Sale.

Pivetta uses a basic three-pitch approach – fastball, curve, and slider. Don’t expect high 90s heat or pinpoint control. At 30 years old, what you see is what you will get from the Canadian native.

In 2022 Pivetta made a league-best 33 starts; some were a horror show, and others a thing of beauty. Pivetta’s April numbers were forgettable (0-3, 8.27), and his second half was rocky, especially in September when he may have run out of gas; for the season, lefties checked in at .252 and righties at .254. Home and away showed little difference. Pivetta’s ERA (4.56) and FIP (4.42) mirrored each other.

Pivetta is into his arbitration years, and that translates into coin. In the new world of baseball, you can collect a small fortune, not pitching. Just ask James Paxton. But in 2023, the quick-working Pivetta may be placed in a situation where too much is expected out of limited ability.

Make or break season for Sox’s Tanner Houck?

This is the show-me season for righty Tanner Houck as the team has positioned the 26-year-old as a starter. In 2022 Houck made just four starts (1-2, 4.32) and was statistically more effective out of the bullpen (4-2, 2.70, 8 saves), but that was then, and this is now.

Just a few short years back, Houck was a highly regarded prospect for Boston but to put that evaluation in perspective, Jeter Downs was their top-ranked prospect.

At this point, Houck is a two-pitch hurler with a mid-90s fastball and a slider. Houck occasionally mixes in a splitter, but that number one has a natural sink to it, as demonstrated by a career 0.5 HR/9 and 49.5 GB%. Both are good omens for a reliever in a bases-jammed situation and a factor that may eventually have Houck return to the ‘pen.

Speaking of the ‘pen Houck was more effective in that role in 2021, so history may not be on his side if a bullpen need develops. Houck is especially tough on righties tossing a career .199 against them versus a respectable .232 for lefties. Houk may end up being this generation’s, Bob Stanley.

With the recent addition of Corey Kluber, Houck could be high on the list for the odd man out in the rotation, especially in April with a game lean schedule. But historically, pitching depth is always a plus. Just glance back at 2009 when Boston was projected to have the proverbial boat load of starters, and by the end of the season, Paul Byrd was getting starts.

Can Whitlock be the Boston Ace?

The starter role for right-hander Garrett Whitlock was settled with the addition of Chris Martin and Kelsey Jansen. Set up and closer were two roles Whitlock accomplished in performing. Just how promising? The Red Sox extended Whitlock for four years and possibly two more with options. Like all RSN, management saw what they liked and moved quickly – a rare happening.

If fans wish to be nervous about Whitlock, it is right there with season-ending hip surgery. That condition could be an issue as the innings add up in 2023. The next potential negative is Whitlock’s numbers as a starter (1-1, 4.15) in a small nine-game sample. Otherwise, what is there not to like?

Whitlock posted a 4.8 BB% and a 26.4 K% in 2022 with command of a hard fastball (95.6 MPH), a chase ’em slider, and a change. The slider and change come in at the low 80s on the gun and are delivered with precision.

Whitlock has the potential to be an ace of this staff, but we have only witnessed glimpses of that. If Whitlock can give this team 30+ starts and 180+ innings, that contract may be the best bargain in baseball, but that will only be known by late September.

Have the Red Sox finally developed a homegrown starter?

The Red Sox organization has yet to churn out a competent starter since the Truman administration, or maybe Obama? That will soon change with Brayan Bello.

Bello’s introduction to MLB could have been more promising, but so was that of Roger Clemens. Bello became fresh meat until September, and the 23-year-old righty posted a 2-4, 2.59 ERA in his last six starts. That, undoubtedly, is what the metric folks at Fenway have caught their attention like shiny keys.

Scouting and performance show Bello brings three solid pitches to the hill, including a fastball consistently in the upper 90s. What impressed me about the Bello of 2022 was his ability to put a hammering into the background and concentrate on his next start.

Can Bello be the future Ace? That projection is questionable, but his ceiling is relatively high, and after the long list of Jay Groome’s et al., this development branch of the operation needs a break or two, and Bello may be just the arm to accomplish that.

The Red Sox extended Whitlock, which signaled a change in management philosophy regarding buying out arbitration and potentially a free agency year or two. With Bello, they may approach that.

Can Kluber be a Bloom success story?

The Red Sox’s late addition to a potential rotation is veteran right-hander Corey Kluber. Kluber joins that long list of vets the last few years with mixed results with his one-year $10MM contract. Kluber may make this a six-man rotation. Kluber is a former 20-game winner and two-time Cy Young Award winner while with the Cleveland Indians, now Guardians. Since a spat of injuries, Kluber has bounced around, but last season with Tampa went 10-10 and had a 4.34 ERA.

The “like” portion of the Kluber of 2022 in his 1.2 BB/9 was the best in the American League. Kluber has historically been a great location pitcher who was tight with issuing free passes. Don’t expect speed from Kluber, who can occasionally crank it up to the low 90s, but his cutter, curve, and change keep hitters off balance. Kluber is a location specialist. But what will he be in 2023?

Kluber made 30 starts in 2022 and wracked up 164 innings pitched. The innings total reflects both cautions with Kluber’s health status and Tampa’s extensive bullpen use.  A bullpen in Boston has now been rebuilt. Kluber is a safety net as the Red Sox may eventually migrate to a six-man rotation once May rolls around.

Red Sox need depth, health, and a world of luck

The optimum word to describe this rotation is if. If Sale is back to good health. If Whitlock is suffering, no recovery issues. If Bello can make all of 2023 his September of 2022. If Pivetta can make 33 productive starts. If Houck can start as well as he demonstrated his ability to relieve?

This rotation lacks depth, and that depth provides a comfort zone. Chaim Bloom may wait out the market and get either Eovaldi or Wacha on a short deal – now a Boston specialty. But, alas, Eovaldi is gone to the Rangers. Will Kluber be that depth?

The depth could be Bryan Mata, whose Tommy John Surgery tossed a wrench into his development. Mata is back and will get his reps in Worcester, awaiting a Boston failure or physical breakdown. After Mata, there is a slide on possible developmental talent that could impact 2023. All the more important is to add depth.

Depth also brings into play Paxton. Paxton had an extensive recovery and should be all set (hopefully) for 2023. So here comes another “if,” and that is having Paxton come in with a 2017-2019 performance. Paxton could be the most critical piece in the rotation, and Paxton could be the security blanket or make it a six-man and an excellent rotation, especially if Houck or Whitlock are needed elsewhere.