In the last four days, the Boston Red Sox have failed to land two significant free-agent targets.
Losing ‘top target’ José Abreu to the Houston Astros wasn’t surprising. The Astros are reigning World Series champions, poised to make a playoff run again next year, and they’re probably overpaying him. Why wouldn’t an aging slugger choose them as he vies for a ring before he retires?
But losing a pitcher to the Tampa Bay Rays? In this economy?
On Thursday evening, Bob Nightengale reported that the Rays were in agreement with longtime Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, Zach Eflin, on a three-year, $40M deal.
The Sox reportedly made him the exact same offer.
Could they have outbid the Rays? In theory, of course, they could’ve, though new reports suggest Eflin didn’t give them the opportunity. But after a year rife with pitching injuries, throwing money at Eflin could’ve backfired in a big way – more on that in a minute. But it’s not really about the dollar amount, though this is the biggest free-agent contract the Rays have ever given out, and that in itself is wild. Compare their biggest outside expenditure to Boston’s: $217M to David Price, the richest pitching contract in MLB history at the time.
Red Sox, Rays made identical offers to Zach Eflin
The reported difference-maker between two identical bids was that Eflin is from Florida, but it feels like the real difference-maker is that the novelty of being a member of the Boston Red Sox seems to have worn off; cachet replaced with chaos. This isn’t a ‘Bay Area native Aaron Judge and the San Francisco Giants’ homecoming situation; Eflin is from Florida, but he grew up in Orlando, which is over 100 miles away from St. Pete’s. He’ll pocket more of his salary in an income-tax-free state, too, but that was never a real obstacle with free agents in the past, because Boston was the place to be.
The Rays have never won a World Series, but they’ve proven to be a consistently competitive club (say that five times fast), finishing well above .500 in each of the last five seasons. Ironically, cultivating that kind of consistency is why Red Sox ownership says they hired Bloom. But now in his fourth Boston winter, stability continues to elude them; in his first three seasons, the Sox bounced from last place to the ALCS and back to last again.
Really, the overarching theme of Bloom’s tenure is that Boston’s division rivals are getting aggressive, while the Sox have played it so safe since the Mookie Betts trade that they’re becoming irrelevant. The Chief Baseball Officer’s plan to target struggling pitchers with upside has been largely underwhelming and unsuccessful, and he’s only given out one contract in excess of two years (Trevor Story). While the Rays locked Wander Franco into long-term of enormous proportions by their standards and made a legitimate offer to Freddie Freeman last offseason, the Sox pushed Xander Bogaerts out the door and have lowballed Rafael Devers at least three times so far in extension negotiations. There is little confidence in Bogaerts returning, and growing fear that they’ll spoil things with Devers as well.
The Rays also outbid the Sox on reliever Brooks Raley last winter, though in that instance, the offers were significantly different. Bloom offered one year at $8M; the Rays signed him for two years at $10M with a club option for 2024.
But back to Eflin. Many fans, former players, and media members were quick to blast the Sox for not exceeding the Rays’ bid, but Boston has several righty starter options; James Paxton and Chris Sale being the only southpaws in the rotation feels like a big risk. And this could very well turn out to be an overspend, as Eflin has dealt with knee injuries throughout his career. He had surgery on both knees in 2016 and again on his right knee in 2021. He was on the 60-Day Injured List with a knee ailment during the 2022 regular season, but he was able to return in September and impress in a relief role in the postseason. Only once in seven years has he thrown more than 128 innings; four times, he’s failed to exceed 76 frames.
You want him? Pay him more. You’re the Red Sox. They’re the Rays https://t.co/EfRvxKiMUO
— Lou Merloni (@LouMerloni) December 2, 2022
The Red Sox need to be The Red Sox again, and they have the ability to flex their muscles in a more calculated and clever way than they used to. They can combine their blooming farm system (no pun intended) with their financial flexibility and analytics expertise and build a truly compelling team. But so far this offseason, they are reportedly interested in pretty much everyone and outbidding no one. If they have a secret strategy to shock the world, they’re hiding it well.
But let’s consider that all of those things might not matter and that even if they were to offer top dollar, their brand just doesn’t carry the weight it used to. The Sox need to convince the league that they’re trying to compete, and the way to do that is to make a splash.
Until that happens, it’s hard to see them convincing anyone to suit up.
Update:
According to Chad Jennings of The Athletic and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (both paywalled), Eflin received the Sox offer first and reached out to the Rays to see if they’d match it, which they did. He did not give the Sox an opportunity to raise their bid.
Boston Red Sox offseason news, rumors, 2023 payroll, luxury tax, and more
Everything you need to know about the Red Sox 2022-2023 offseason! Payrolls, arbitration, free agents, transactions, luxury tax, payroll, rumors, and more.