Why didn’t the Red Sox try to trade for Teoscar Hernandez?
On Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays traded outfielder Teoscar Hernández to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. And the Boston Red Sox should be thrilled to see Hernández leaving the AL East.
Hernández is a two-time Silver Slugger award winner who made his first All-Star appearance in 2021 when he hit .296 with an .870 OPS, 32 home runs and 116 RBI.
The 30-year-old took a bit of a step back this year, hitting .267/.316/.491 with 25 home runs and 77 RBI, but the production was still solid considering the league-wide decline in offense this year. He also suffered an oblique injury early in the season that sent him to the IL and limited him to 131 games.
Hernández will be a free agent after the 2023 season and he’s projected to earn $14.1 million in his final year of arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors. The rising price as well as the potential to losing him to free agency a year from now seemed to be Toronto’s motivation for trading him, but it also limited the return.
Macko is an enticing pitching prospect who was ranked No. 8 in the Mariners farm system by MLB Pipeline. The lefty’s progress has been stalled by injury and he hasn’t pitched above A-ball in his career, leaving him at least a couple of years away from contributing to the Blue Jays at the major league level.
Swanson had a career year in the Mariners bullpen in 2022, posting a 1.68 ERA, 34% K rate and 4.9% BB rate. The right-hander ranked in the 96th percentile (or above) in strikeout rate, hard hit percentage and average exit velocity.
The Jays have a loaded lineup that finished second in the American League in runs scored and first in the league with a 117 wRC+ this year. Their bullpen was in the middle of the pack with a 3.77 ERA and 4.03 FIP. Toronto dealt from a position of strength to shore up one of their few weaknesses. Swanson has a short track record as an elite reliever but will be a significant upgrade if he can build on his breakout season.
The move makes sense for Toronto from the perspective of giving up a veteran, who wasn’t in their long-term plans, for a cost-controlled asset, who fills an immediate need, plus a high-upside prospect. However, an All-Star caliber outfielder is generally more valuable than a middle reliever. We can’t rule out the Jays making another move to add an outfielder to offset the loss of Hernández, but for the moment, this trade appears to weaken a division rival, at least for the 2023 season.
Boston also benefits by removing a player from the division who has been a thorn in their side. Hernández owns a .312/.367/.632 slash line with 22 home runs in 71 career games against the Red Sox. Fourteen of those home runs have come in 42 games at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays lineup will remain a daunting challenge for Red Sox pitchers, but it certainly helps that a hitter with so much success against this club has been removed from the equation.
Why didn’t the Red Sox try to trade for Teoscar Hernandez?
That successful track record against them is one reason why it would have made sense for the Red Sox to acquire Hernández. Boston could use a right-handed power bat to fill a corner outfield spot and Hernández is a superior option to what they would find in free agency in the non-Aaron Judge division.
The Red Sox couldn’t afford to part with one of their best relievers, which would make it more difficult to compete with Seattle’s offer if Toronto coveted Swanson. The Red Sox do have several appealing pitching prospects who are far closer to major league-ready than Macko, though. Bryan Mata (No. 6 in the Red Sox farm system), Brandon Walter (No. 7) or Chris Murphy (No. 11) would be comparable compensation. Perhaps Toronto would have taken two from that trio if they felt one of them could contribute to the bullpen in the short term.
Parting with pitching prospects is a tough pill to swallow for a Red Sox organization that has struggled to develop pitching. However, the recent additions to the 40-man roster to protect some of their top prospects from the Rule 5 draft had some notable exclusions. Wikelman Gonzalez (No. 14) and Thad Ward (No. 15) were left unprotected. Even if they survive being poached in the Rule 5 draft, the Red Sox taking that gamble shows that a roster crunch is looming. They won’t be able to fit all of their best prospects on the 40-man roster within the next few years, so it’s time to start trading some of those assets to consolidate roster spots and fill immediate needs at the major league level.
It’s unclear if Toronto was even willing to trade Hernández within the division. Perhaps the Red Sox were never given an opportunity to top Seattle’s offer. The point is that using their surplus of prospects to acquire a proven bat of Hernández’s caliber is exactly the type of deal Chaim Bloom should have on his radar.
