Boston Red Sox prospects: Analyzing the Rule 5 Draft protections
The Boston Red Sox made five additions to their 40-man roster to protect prospects from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Those prospects were Ceddanne Rafaela, Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter, Wilyer Abreu, and David Hamilton.
All of those players are ranked inside my top 30 Boston Red Sox prospects after the 2022 season.
On the surface, those are phenomenal protections. All five aren’t too far off from the big leagues and could make some impactful contributions to the team. We’ll get into that later though.
First, let’s talk about some of the players that weren’t protected. There were some big names left off that list, so some fans might be wondering why that is.
Pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez was a name some people threw around. The 20-year-old has just four games pitched in High-A, though. No team is going to add him knowing he’ll have to be on their 26-man roster immediately. It feels like a very safe bet to keep him off.
The same can be said for shortstop Brainer Bonaci and utility man Eddinson Paulino. Both enjoyed breakout years in 2022 and became personal favorites of mine. Watching them hit at the top of the order in Salem was fun (especially because they seemed to try and outdo each other when it came to celebrating home runs).
Both spent all year in Low-A, though. It’s unlikely anyone’s putting them on a Major League roster.
Gilberto Jimenez is in the same boat as those two. He was in High-A all year. But had the worst hitting season of his career, and with no Double-A experience yet, it seems unlikely a team would jump on him.
Catchers Kole Cottam and Stephen Scott could interest teams. Cottam is a plus-defender with good hit tools. And he even made it to Triple-A last season, where he put together a nice run at the end of the year. Scott made it to Double-A last year, and even though he struggled overall, had good numbers with Portland. He also dominated the AFL (Arizona Fall League), making the All-AFL team.
Both seem like moderate risks, and I don’t like that.
The biggest risk is Thad Ward, who worked seven games in Double-A before the end of the year. The right-handed pitcher dominated in that run. And he even had experience in Double-A in 2021. However, Ward suffered an injury and missed nearly the entire 2021 season (two games) and half of the 2022 season after having Tommy John surgery.
Boston must feel safe that teams will steer clear of him with that in mind. But don’t be surprised if someone scoops him up. There’s a lot to like about Ward, who possesses a nasty slider.
Now, let’s move on to those staying with the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox second base prospect – David Hamilton
David Hamilton (number 30 on my prospect list) was brought to Boston in the trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to the Milwaukee Brewers. He stole 70 bases in Double-A (a Portland Sea Dogs record)? So maybe fans can stop acting like the Red Sox got nothing in return for Renfroe now?
Hamilton wasn’t just a base stealer, either. He bounced back from a rough middle-of-the-season to put together a strong campaign. The left-handed hitter slashed .251/.338/.402 with 16 doubles, nine triples, and 12 home runs in 119 games in Double-A. He drove in 42 runs, scored 81 more, and stole those 70 bases on just 78 attempts.
Hamilton showed off some good patience too, managing 56 walks. And with his absurd speed, it never hurts when he’s getting on base.
Meanwhile, Hamilton is a really strong defensive second baseman. His speed allows him to get to a lot of balls that not many others would be able to.
Hamilton makes perfect sense as a protection pick. He spent all of 2022 in Double-A after spending a portion of his 2021 season there too. That would lead you to believe Triple-A will be his starting spot in 2023. There’s potential with his offense, and even if a few issues are never ironed out perfectly, that speed impacts games. He could help the Red Sox at some point next year.
Boston Red Sox outfield prospect – Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu (number 25 on my prospect list) was a part of another recent trade for the Red Sox. The outfielder came over from the Houston Astros in the Christian Vazquez deal.
The left-handed hitter slashed .247/.399/.435 with 29 doubles and 19 home runs between the two teams in Double-A. He drove in 73 runs, scored 106 more, and stole 31 bases in 34 attempts. That OBP wasn’t an error either, as Abreu drew an absurd 114 walks.
There’s a fun combination of power and speed with Abreu. And his ability to work counts and draw walks will play at every level. His solid defense with a really strong arm pulls it all together beautifully.
This makes sense for a few reasons. First of all, Abreu will likely start 2023 in Triple-A. Just one stop from the Majors, there’s a chance he’ll be playing in Boston at some point next year.
However, there’s another reason and, honestly, I think this played just as much of a role in it. The Red Sox wouldn’t want to lose Abreu after trading for him so recently. Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez were the two players sent back to Boston from Houston for Vazquez. That’s a fantastic package right there.
Valdez is already on the 40-man roster and put up monster numbers in Triple-A last season. Now Abreu is joining him there.
The 23-year-old brings something to the table in every facet of the game and could be an interesting option for the Red Sox outfield at some point in 2023. It made too much sense to protect him.
Boston Red Sox pitching prospect – Brandon Walter
Brandon Walter (number 11 on my prospect list) would’ve been in the Majors by the end of 2022 if it wasn’t for an injury in early June. That’s a pretty obvious statement, right?
The left-handed pitcher was filthy in Double-A before getting a promotion to Triple-A to start the month of June. His first start there was pretty ugly, but he made significant steps forward in start number two. Of course, that was the last start of his season, because good things can’t ever just keep rolling, can they?
Walter has a strong pitch mix (even if he isn’t much of a Gas Masterson). His big calling card is his control. In 57.2 innings last season, Walter struck out 75 batters. He walked just seven.
Walter was promoted to Triple-A before Brayan Bello. It’s reasonable to assume he would’ve been the one getting most of those MLB innings (if not all of them) if he wasn’t injured. Certainly, Walter would’ve gotten the first shot in the Majors, at the very least.
He could very easily get a chance in the rotation next season. He shot through the minors to this point, not really running into any trouble yet either. Boston has some obvious pitching question marks too. So, keeping an almost MLB-ready talent is a pretty obvious no-brainer.
Out of everyone on this list, Walter is the one I could see getting a chance in the Majors the fastest. As long as he’s healthy, he could make quick work of Triple-A in 2023 and be the first (or at the very least one of the first) arms called up should injuries occur in Boston.
Boston Red Sox pitching prospect – Chris Murphy
Chris Murphy (number nine on my prospect list) is one of my guys. And in 2022 he took another big step forward. The left-handed pitcher made his way to Triple-A halfway through the year after putting in work in Double-A.
I even got to watch Murph pitch twice when he was with Portland, and the stuff is nasty. Absolutely love his changeup, and he’s got some underrated breaking balls.
His numbers took a hit when he went to Triple-A, but I feel the need to point something out whenever this is brought up: Murphy struggled after getting promoted to Double-A in 2021. In 2022, he was dog-walking opposing teams at that level. He was making everyone that stepped up to the plate look silly.
Even with the struggles at Triple-A, Murph managed to finish the 2022 season with a solid 4.03 ERA, .220 BAA, and 1.28 WHIP. In 152 innings, he racked up 149 strikeouts. And he impressively cut down his home runs allowed to 14. The previous year he allowed 21 homers in just 101.1 innings. That’s what we call growth.
It seems obvious that Murphy needs to get acclimated for a little bit, but once he does, he’s going to give you some fantastic innings.
And even in Triple-A, we saw a lot of “he was out there one inning too long” outings. Five-or-six great innings, then he’d come out of the next and run out of gas. That’s something I think we’ll see improvement with in 2023.
This was another insanely obvious choice. A left-handed pitcher that made marked improvements and worked his way up to Triple-A in 2022. He’ll get a shot in the Majors in 2023 and could be an interesting piece for either the rotation or the bullpen.
Boston Red Sox centerfield prospect – Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela (number one on my prospect list) was protected by the Red Sox. Okay, I’m done with this slide. That’s all that needed to be said.
What? I need to write more? Really? Does anyone really need an explanation for this? No. But I’m going to give you one anyway.
Rafaela entered 2022 as an interesting prospect who I was stupid high on. And he made me feel like a baseball savant. The right-handed hitter slashed .299/.342/.538 with 32 doubles, 10 triples, and 21 home runs between High-A and Double-A. He drove in 86 runs, scored 82 more, and stole 28 bases.
The only knock anyone seems to have on his game is his plate discipline. We saw improvements at times, but he does tend to swing at a lot of bad pitches. In his defense, he makes contact with them pretty often, though.
Rafaela is an elite defender in the outfield. The center fielder is going to win a Gold Glove (or multiple) — that just feels like a given at this point. He’s capable of winning one at shortstop as well. And if he decides to start playing third base and second base again (like he did in 2021), he’d probably win some there too.
Rafaela will likely start 2023 in Triple-A. In the eyes of MLB, he rose from “fringe-top-30 Red Sox prospect” to “top 100 prospect in all of baseball” in a single season.
Your favorite prospect’s favorite prospect has a legitimate chance at cracking the Majors next season. He’ll make an immediate impact thanks to his defense and unique combination of power and speed (especially for someone his size). Fans that somehow aren’t aware of his game will fall in love with him immediately.
It would’ve been bonkers for the Boston Red Sox not to protect Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela.
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