Former GM suggests interesting shortstop alternative for the Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox need a backup plan if Xander Bogaerts leaves

Locking up Xander Bogaerts to a new contract is a top priority for the Boston Red Sox this offseason. While it’s hard to believe that they would let their star shortstop and clubhouse leader get away, the Red Sox need to have alternative options on their radar just in case.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden has experience with navigating the free-agent market from his days as General Manager of the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals. With four All-Star shortstops expected to test free agency this winter, Bowden played a game of musical chairs by finding new homes for each of them.

It’s important to note that this wasn’t meant to be an article making predictions. Bowden was exploring which teams would be the best fit for these shortstops if they leave their current team. This doesn’t mean he expect Bogaerts to be wearing another uniform next season.

However, if Bogaerts were to leave, the Seattle Mariners would be a great fit. The Mariners ended a 21-year playoff drought and shocked the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, only to be swept by the Houston Astros in the ALDS. To take the next step toward their championship aspirations, Seattle needs to improve a below-average offense that needs bats to build around rookie sensation Julio Rodríguez.

Bowden predicts a 7-year, $196 million deal for Bogaerts. That’s a reasonable offer that the Red Sox should not shy away from matching. We know Xander’s preference is to stay in Boston so it would take a massive offer from another suitor to outbid the Red Sox by enough to matter. Extension talks never showed promising progress but the Red Sox might be willing to let the market set his value knowing they can match anything reasonable.

Boston’s brass needs to prepare for anything though. We can’t rule out a desperate club overwhelming Bogaerts with an absurd amount of money. Bogaerts is a vital part of this team and the Red Sox certainly don’t want to lose him, but there are obviously limits to how far they will go to retain him.

Assuming Bogaerts was already off the board, Bowden suggests an appealing alternative in Dansby Swanson. Bowden had already made the case for the Atlanta Braves signing Trea Turner to be their new shortstop, which means Swanson would be on the move.

Swanson is coming off a career-best season that led to his first All-Star appearance. His 5.7 WAR was identical to Bogaerts this season. He isn’t quite the hitter that Bogaerts is, but Swanson stacked up fairly well against him with his production at the plate this year.

Bogaerts: .307/.377/.456/.833, 38 doubles, 15 home runs, 73 RBI, 131 OPS+
Swanson: .277/.329/.447/.776, 32 doubles, 25 home runs, 96 RBI, 115 OPS+

Bogaerts hits for a better average, walks more and strikes out less. Moving to Fenway Park, where his right-handed swing could take aim at the Green Monster, would give Swanson’s average a boost though. While the power numbers from Bogaerts took a steep decline this season, Swanson has found his power stroke by hitting 25+ homers in each of the last two seasons.

Swanson is also a better defensive shortstop, ranking fourth in the National League at the position with 9 defensive runs saved. He has produced 9 DRS in three of the last five seasons. Bogaerts had 4 DRS this season, the first time in his career he produced a positive number in that category.

Bowden predicted a six-year, $154 million deal for Swanson. It’s interesting that he’s projecting Swanson for one fewer year despite that he’s over a year younger than Bogaerts. Swanson turns 29 in February, the age he will be for the entire 2023 season, while Bogaerts just turned 30 this month. The age difference isn’t significant but the shorter commitment has some appeal with top prospect Marcelo Mayer expected to arrive in a few years.

While he provides a cheaper alternative to the salary Bogaerts is projected for, the Red Sox shouldn’t let a savings of less than $3 million per year be the reason they replace their shortstop with Swanson.

The value that Bogaerts provides extends beyond anything analytics can measure. However, the reasons we adore Bogaerts – his intangibles, clutch hitting, clubhouse presence, championship experience – are traits that Swanson also possesses. The Red Sox will priority Bogaerts, and rightfully so, but Swanson would be a great consultation prize.