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5 External closer candidates for the 2023 Red Sox

By Daniel Cereghin

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 12: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after a strikeout to end the game against the Philadelphia Phillies in game two of the National League Division Series at Truist Park on October 12, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 12: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after a strikeout to end the game against the Philadelphia Phillies in game two of the National League Division Series at Truist Park on October 12, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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Rafael Montero
Oct 13, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Rafael Montero (47) reacts after a strike out against the Seattle Mariners during the eighth inning of game two of the ALDS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 4 – Rafael Montero, FA

Coming off a breakout season, Rafael Montero is a relatively unknown closing candidate, but he’s one of the few relievers to whom I would feel safe giving a multi-year deal. Coming off a season in which he posted a 2.37 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 1.024 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.4 HR/9, Montero is ready to take advantage of an older free-agent reliever class and cash in.

The underlying metrics look pretty good for Montero. He’s got some good swing-and-miss (70th percentile whiff%) and chase (62nd percentile chase rate), but he excels at inducing weak contact (99th percentile barrel%, 88th percentile hard-hit%). This led to opposing batters hitting just .193/.268/.267 off of him. However, his 5.7 HR/FB% is well below league average, and some positive home-run regression could spell trouble.

Another concern with Montero is that his track record isn’t very impressive. He’s been a below-average reliever throughout his career, though never quite as bad as his ERA suggests. Without going into detail, Montero’s fastball has ticked up both in spin and velocity, leading to much better results. He’s made changes in his game that should lead to better results, so I don’t think he just had a lucky season.

If you don’t know about Rafael Montero, it’s time to get to know him. It’s a breakout season that looks sustainable.

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