5 External closer candidates for the 2023 Red Sox

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Who will be the Red Sox closer in 2023 and beyond?

Do the Boston Red Sox need a full-time closer moving forward?

In 2022, the closer role was left to a committee, with no one reliever leading the team in saves – John Schreiber, Matt Barnes, and Tanner Houck tied with 8 – and the bullpen combining to blow 28, which tied for fifth-most in MLB.

It’s unclear if the Sox will designate any of them or Garrett Whitlock as the official closer moving forward, or pursue an external option. If they’re unsatisfied with internal options, they can peruse the free-agent market for high-end or low-end options, or make a trade.

Here’s a look at who the Red Sox could add, either via free agency or trade, to take over the role in 2023.

No. 5 – Kenley Jansen, FA

Kenley Jansen feels a little underwhelming at this point in his career, but he’s still one of the top relievers on the market. He led the National League with 41 saves in 2022, if that matters to you. On the season, he posted a 3.38 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.047 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9.

13 years into his big-league career, Jansen is still an above-average reliever who belongs in the closer spot. He has above-average swing-and-miss stuff (62nd percentile Whiff%) and is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball (93rd percentile). He’s even improving as a strikeout pitcher, seeing his highest K% (32.7%) since 2017.

Home runs are a bit of an issue for Jansen, and this comes down to him getting hit harder than ever before. Jansen has excelled in the past at inducing weak contact, but his 32.5 hard-hit% was his highest in the Statcast era (since 2015). He’s been trending up for the past two years, and that trend continuing in 2023 would be dangerous.

At 35 years old, Jansen is probably too risky to give anything more than a one-year deal with an option for 2024, but coming off a $16M year, it’s probably going to be another deal north of $10MM. He feels a little risky at his age, but his track record is one of the better ones on this list. He also has a career 2.20 ERA over 59 postseason games, experience that will be crucial for any team trying to contend next year.

Oct 13, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Rafael Montero (47) reacts after a strike out against the Seattle Mariners during the eighth inning of game two of the ALDS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 4 – Rafael Montero, FA

Coming off a breakout season, Rafael Montero is a relatively unknown closing candidate, but he’s one of the few relievers to whom I would feel safe giving a multi-year deal. Coming off a season in which he posted a 2.37 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 1.024 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.4 HR/9, Montero is ready to take advantage of an older free-agent reliever class and cash in.

The underlying metrics look pretty good for Montero. He’s got some good swing-and-miss (70th percentile whiff%) and chase (62nd percentile chase rate), but he excels at inducing weak contact (99th percentile barrel%, 88th percentile hard-hit%). This led to opposing batters hitting just .193/.268/.267 off of him. However, his 5.7 HR/FB% is well below league average, and some positive home-run regression could spell trouble.

Another concern with Montero is that his track record isn’t very impressive. He’s been a below-average reliever throughout his career, though never quite as bad as his ERA suggests. Without going into detail, Montero’s fastball has ticked up both in spin and velocity, leading to much better results. He’s made changes in his game that should lead to better results, so I don’t think he just had a lucky season.

If you don’t know about Rafael Montero, it’s time to get to know him. It’s a breakout season that looks sustainable.

Aug 25, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) reacts after recording a strike out to during the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 3 – Edwin Díaz, FA

Edwin Díaz earned 32 saves in 35 opportunities for the 2022 Mets, but this is only a small fraction of the story.

In 62.0 IP, he struck out 118 hitters – good for 17.1 K/9 and a 50.2 K%. Edwin Díaz struck out half of the hitters he faced. That K/9 is just short of the all-time record, currently held by Aroldis Chapman who struck out 17.7 per 9 innings in 2014, and a little short of Díaz’s personal record of 17.5 in the shortened 2020 season.

Díaz excels at keeping runners off the bases. He held batters to just 4.9 H/9 and 2.6 BB/9 – a 0.839 WHIP. He led all relievers with a minimum of 50 IP in FIP (0.90), K/9 (17.1), WAR (3.0), and K-BB% (42.6).

The 28-year-old righty is in a tier of his own, and he’s earning consideration as one of the greatest relievers of the 2000s. So, why am I concerned? Because he’s going to set a record for the highest reliever contract. Aroldis Chapman signed for 5yr/$85M back in 2017. Díaz is about the same age as Chapman was when he got his contract, but he might exceed 5yr/$100M.

If the Red Sox want someone resembling Craig Kimbrel in 2017, Díaz is the answer. But with such uncertainty surrounding Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers right now, it feels impractical to spend so much money on a reliever.

Sep 25, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Scott Barlow (58) celebrates after defeating the Seattle Mariners at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 2 – Scott Barlow, KC

Pivoting to the trade market, the Red Sox can find perhaps the two best options to close next season. These two options will, of course, come with the added cost of prospects, but neither should require top prospects to acquire.

The cheaper of the two trade targets is Royals’ closer, Scott Barlow. Over the past two seasons, Barlow has tossed 148.2 IP with 40 saves, a 2.30 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.096 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.8 HR/9. Barlow is a legitimate threat out of the pen, and one of the few relievers to see sustained success across multiple seasons.

Barlow’s swing-and-miss stuff is some of the best of these options (89th percentile whiff%, 97th percentile chase rate). His 96th-percentile hard-hit% is the best of anyone on this list.

Barlow is not quite an elite reliever, but he is one of the more underrated closers in baseball, so if the Royals make him available, he should be one of Boston’s top targets. He’s under team control through 2024, but I still don’t expect his price to be too high – maybe a few lower-level prospects ranked between #15-30.

Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Alexis Diaz (43) winds up to deliver a pitch in the eighth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. The Cubs led 1-0 in the top of the sixth inning. The Reds won 3-2 on a walk-off double off the bat of third baseman Spencer Steer.Chicago Cubs At Cincinnati Reds /

No. 1 – Alexis Díaz, CIN

My choice for the Red Sox closer in 2023, if they choose to look externally, is Edwin Díaz’s younger brother.

Rookie Alexis Díaz has some flaws – his 4.7 BB/9 is pretty glaring. But there is so much upside that he managed to put together an incredible season despite the walks.

In 63.2 IP, Díaz posted a 1.84 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 0.958 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, and 0.7 HR/9. His 97th percentile whiff rate is elite, leading to a 93rd percentile K%. His opponent slash line of .131/.260/.216 shows a lot of potential, if he can lower the walks. He’s stingy when it comes to hits and extra-base hits, but he gets beat by walks too much.

Would the Reds trade Díaz? Possibly, but it might take some convincing. A top-5 prospect is too steep, but the Red Sox have a few mid-level prospects who can get it done.

It’s tough to find a long-term closer of Díaz’s caliber, so the Reds’ may be inclined to hold onto him. My only issue with acquiring him is what it might take to get him, but the Sox are in dire need of long-term stability in the bullpen, so if they’re serious about winning, they need to be willing to give in order to get.

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