Predicting the outcome for every Red Sox option for 2023
Chris Sale is definitely opting in
Without crunching any numbers, it’s a safe bet that there’s a 99.999999% chance Chris Sale opts into the 2023 season.
After all, he only threw 5 2/3 innings this year in between a rib fracture and a fractured pinky and then a broken wrist while recovering from the pinky.
Since Sale signed his five-year, $145M extension with the Sox ahead of the 2019 season, he’s made 36 starts for a total of 195 2/3 innings and a 4.09 ERA. After making his scheduled start on August 13, 2019, he didn’t pitch in a big-league game again until August 14, 2021. Trying to avoid Tommy John for several months only delayed the inevitable, and he finally went under the knife in April 2020.
In his heyday, Sale was the ultimate competitor. He even had the mark of a true ace: never getting run support. But since returning from Tommy John, he’s made only 11 starts over the last two seasons. He’s going to opt in because no other team is crazy enough to pay him anything close to his current contract. The added security is that it comes with a full no-trade clause through 2024. The Sox are stuck with him.
Eric Hosmer’s player option for 2023 might make Red Sox regret trade
When Eric Hosmer signed his 8-year, $144M contract with the San Diego Padres ahead of the 2018 season, it was the richest contract they’d ever given out.
Five years later, they were so desperate to unload him that they agreed to send him to the Red Sox at the 2022 trade deadline but still pay down the remainder of his deal and send a pair of prospects. At the time, it looked like a savvy move; the Sox gave up one prospect and got an excellent defender and two minor leaguers basically for free.
But the front office may end up regretting this because it’s hard to see Hosmer opting out now; he’s no longer the 4-time Gold Glove first baseman he was back in his Kansas City days, and he stands to earn about $40M from the Padres over the next three years, plus the major-league minimum from the Sox. He’s sitting pretty in Boston.
There’s also a new added wrinkle. The Boston Globe (subscription required) reported this week that Hosmer’s contract includes a provision that if the Padres were to trade the veteran infielder, it would trigger full no-trade protection for the remainder of the contract. So, if the Sox want to trade him, he’ll have to agree. He already vetoed a trade to the rebuilding Washington Nationals at this summer’s deadline, which is how he ended up here. He’s not likely to approve trades to most destinations.
Declining James Paxton’s 2023 option won’t mean his departure
James Paxton never ended up pitching for the Red Sox in 2022.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2021, the Sox signed Paxton to a one-year deal for 2022, knowing that he would miss a significant portion of the season while he continued to recover. The significant portion turned out to be the entire year, as Paxton then suffered a lat tear during his first rehab game.
Now, the Sox are in a mess. Paxton’s contract includes a club option, but it’s not just for 2023. It’s an option for the next two seasons, totaling $26M. Scott Boras, you sly fox.
But wait, it gets worse. If the Sox decline this bloated option for 2023-24, Paxton also has a $4M player option just for 2023. Since Paxton has thrown 21 2/3 innings dating back to the beginning of 2020, he won’t exactly have teams lining up to sign him.
It seems like the Sox are stuck with him for one more year.
Red Sox likely to decline Tommy Pham’s 2023 mutual option
While Tommy Pham’s mutual option for 2023 was originally listed as $6M, it’s now been reported by MassLive and the Boston Globe to be $12M.
It wasn’t hard to see the Sox opting into their side of this option for $6M, but $12M is far too much for a soon-to-be 35-year-old outfielder who just had a rough season. Over 53 games with the Sox, after they acquired him from the Cincinnati Reds at the deadline, Pham only hit .234/.298/.374. His on-base percentage dropped significantly after the trade, though he had more doubles in fewer games.
Pham seems to be a great fit for the team, and has expressed interest in returning next year. It’s not hard to see the Sox negotiating a different deal with him, perhaps something in the ballpark of $6M with an option for 2024.
