Will the Red Sox extend any Qualifying Offers for 2023?

Finally, we have Fozzy Bear himself, Michael Wacha.

It’s safe to say none of us could’ve predicted the type of year that the big righty from Texas was going to have. A superstar early in his career, he came to the Sox after a string of tough seasons. A very modest one-year/$7M deal was enough to bring him to Boston and he had an excellent season.

While he didn’t set career-best numbers in every category, it was, without a doubt, his best showing in years. Wacha became the most reliable arm Alex Cora could call on from his starting rotation and even with some time on the shelf thanks to his back and shoulder, the 31-year-old still gave everything he had in 2022.

Of the three, Wacha seems to have the best chance of getting a QO, but for many of the same reasons as Eovaldi, it’s hard to see Bloom writing him a check for $18.5M. There’s also a serious risk of regression for Wacha; between 2019-21 with the Cardinals, Mets, and Rays, he posted a 5.11 ERA over 66 games (54 starts) and 285 1/3 innings. While he allowed fewer home runs this season, he was still above league average, and his strikeout percentage dropped considerably. His Baseball Savant page offers troubling insight as well; many of his metrics are well below average.

Still, I’d love to see Wacha back on a deal in the realm of two years/$20M, a modest contract that earns him a raise and doesn’t break John Henry’s budget; the Sox aren’t likely to want to exceed the luxury tax for the second year in a row, as the penalties increase with every consecutive year above the limit. It’s also hard to tell where the Red Sox are going to go for the 2023 season and beyond though. Some big names have cleared out their lockers for probably the final time and we’re be seeing plenty of new faces come spring training.

For Boston to succeed not just next year but going forward, the organization has to be smart with the spending while also showing urgency. No more bargain-barrel signings; it’s time to target established players who can help this squad get back to the postseason. And that doesn’t necessarily require spending like crazy – none of us need another Pablo Sandoval debacle anytime soon – they just need to be competitive with the rest of the big market teams.