Will the Red Sox extend any Qualifying Offers for 2023?

Is Nathan Eovaldi getting a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox?

Nathan ‘Nasty Nate’ Eovaldi has been a revelation since coming to Boston at the 2018 trade deadline and will go down in franchise history as one of their greatest midseason acquisitions ever.

Not only did he become an immediate fan favorite, he was also a massive factor in bringing a championship to Boston that fall. But as high as the highs were, the lows were right there to bring the game back to reality. Eovaldi had already missed plenty of time due to injuries before coming to Boston and lost more during his Red Sox tenure. After throwing 54 innings for the Sox in the second half of 2018, injuries limited him to 67 2/3 innings the following year.

Eovaldi returned to stud form in 2020, but even in that shortened season, was only able to make nine starts for 48 1/3 innings. Luckily, he continued pitching like an ace in 2021, making a league-leading 32 starts of 182 1/3 innings, both marks the second highest of his career and most since 2014.

Unfortunately, the fireballing righty’s most recent season was a real mixed bag. Injuries reared their ugly heads again and even though he wanted to take the ball every turn in the rotation, his body wouldn’t let him. Between his back and neck, he missed 75 days this season and it took its toll; his velocity never recovered and his once-untouchable fastball became very hittable. The 21 home runs he allowed were the second most of his career, and if he’d been healthy enough to pitch more, he might have surpassed the 23 round-trippers he gave up when he pitched for the Yankees in 2016.

Eovaldi will turn 33 around the time pitchers and catchers report for spring training, and with a pair of Tommy John surgeries under his belt already, as well as other procedures and ailments, it feels safe to say that he won’t be getting a Qualifying Offer, either. Like Martinez, it’s possible Bloom could make a lower-priced offer, but even that may be a stretch at this point. The Red Sox are trying to get away from injury-prone pitchers, not keep them around, and Eovaldi is on the record saying they haven’t approached him about an extension.

Finally, we have Fozzy Bear himself, Michael Wacha.

It’s safe to say none of us could’ve predicted the type of year that the big righty from Texas was going to have. A superstar early in his career, he came to the Sox after a string of tough seasons. A very modest one-year/$7M deal was enough to bring him to Boston and he had an excellent season.

While he didn’t set career-best numbers in every category, it was, without a doubt, his best showing in years. Wacha became the most reliable arm Alex Cora could call on from his starting rotation and even with some time on the shelf thanks to his back and shoulder, the 31-year-old still gave everything he had in 2022.

Of the three, Wacha seems to have the best chance of getting a QO, but for many of the same reasons as Eovaldi, it’s hard to see Bloom writing him a check for $18.5M. There’s also a serious risk of regression for Wacha; between 2019-21 with the Cardinals, Mets, and Rays, he posted a 5.11 ERA over 66 games (54 starts) and 285 1/3 innings. While he allowed fewer home runs this season, he was still above league average, and his strikeout percentage dropped considerably. His Baseball Savant page offers troubling insight as well; many of his metrics are well below average.

Still, I’d love to see Wacha back on a deal in the realm of two years/$20M, a modest contract that earns him a raise and doesn’t break John Henry’s budget; the Sox aren’t likely to want to exceed the luxury tax for the second year in a row, as the penalties increase with every consecutive year above the limit. It’s also hard to tell where the Red Sox are going to go for the 2023 season and beyond though. Some big names have cleared out their lockers for probably the final time and we’re be seeing plenty of new faces come spring training.

For Boston to succeed not just next year but going forward, the organization has to be smart with the spending while also showing urgency. No more bargain-barrel signings; it’s time to target established players who can help this squad get back to the postseason. And that doesn’t necessarily require spending like crazy – none of us need another Pablo Sandoval debacle anytime soon – they just need to be competitive with the rest of the big market teams.