Justin Verlander’s season is up there with Pedro’s peak Red Sox years
Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander delivered a sensational season that’s reminiscent of Pedro Martinez’s best years with the Boston Red Sox.
In his final regular-season game on Tuesday Verlander tossed five no-hit innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, lowering his ERA to a league-leading 1.75.
That’s the lowest ERA by a qualified American League starting pitcher in over two decades, per FanGraphs. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber produced a 1.63 ERA during the shortened 2020 season but he did so in only 77 1/3 innings, which wouldn’t be nearly enough to qualify in a normal season; Trevor Bauer led the National League with a 1.73 ERA that year. Nothing about that aberration of a season should count in the record books. Zack Greinke (1.66 ERA in 2015) and Jacob deGrom (1.70 ERA in 2018) are the only other pitchers to post a lower ERA during that span and they both did it in the National League prior to the implementation of the universal designated hitter.
To find a better ERA from a qualified AL starter, we have to go back to 2000, when Pedro Martinez was securing his second consecutive Cy Young award with the Red Sox, and third in four years. Martinez led the majors with a 1.74 ERA and set a major-league record with a 0.737 WHIP.
He led the league with four shutouts, 284 strikeouts, an 11.8 K/9, and an 8.88 K-BB ratio. In addition to taking home the Cy Young hardware, Martinez finished fifth on the AL MVP ballot.
His 1999 season was arguably even better. Martinez led the league with 23 wins, a 2.07 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP. His ERA and WHIP were a bit higher than what he’d produce in his encore performance the following season but Martinez led the league in ’99 with a Red Sox franchise record 313 strikeouts and a ridiculous 13.2 K/9. FanGraphs values Pedro’s ’99 season at 11.6 WAR, the best single-season mark by a pitcher in major league history.
Martinez won the Cy Young and finished second on the MVP ballot in 1999. He would have won the latter award as well if it weren’t for being ignored by two voters who refused to include a pitcher on their ballot.
Only a few AL-qualified starters have produced a lower ERA than Pedro’s 1.74 since the Deadball era ended about a century ago, and it hasn’t been done since 1968, when beloved Boston pitcher Luis Tiant posted a 1.60 ERA with Cleveland. That was the infamous Year of the Pitcher when St. Louis ace Bob Gibson made a mockery of opposing lineups by producing an insanely low 1.12 ERA to lead the NL, prompting MLB to lower the mound.
Casting aside Bieber’s limited 2020 season, the only other AL starters with a lower ERA than Martinez since 1920 were Spud Chandler (1.64 ERA in 1943) and Dean Chance (1.65 ERA in 1964). The former instance occurred during World War II when many of the game’s top stars were serving in the military, including Ted Williams. The latter came during a pitching-dominant decade that led to rule changes that benefitted offense.
By comparison, Martinez’s brilliance came without the benefit of a higher mound during the height of the steroid era against loaded lineups featuring a DH; there was nobody better than vintage Pedro.
Verlander has been extremely effective in limiting runs this year but he hasn’t been as dominant as he was in the past, let alone the levels that Martinez reached during his peak years in Boston. Verlander’s 27.8 K% is his lowest since 2017 and well short of the 34.8 K% that Martinez produced in 2000.
One of the keys to Verlander’s success has been limiting the long ball. He’s only allowed 12 home runs this season while producing a career-best 0.6 HR/9.
Verlander fell just shy of beating Martinez for the best ERA by an AL starter in the Wild Card era and he very well would have done it if his manager gave him the chance. Having already locked up the league’s top seed, the Astros wisely decided not to push their ace in his final tune-up before the postseason. Verlander went deep enough to secure his league-leading 18th win of the season before getting pulled about halfway through a no-hitter. But had he thrown one more scoreless inning, he would have lowered his ERA to 1.73, beating Pedro by mere percentage points.
Verlander is the clear choice to win his third Cy Young award, a remarkable accomplishment for a 39-year-old who had only made one start over the previous two seasons due to undergoing Tommy John surgery. But as impressive as Verlander’s season was under any circumstances, he still isn’t quite at Pedro’s level when he was at his peak.