BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 26: Boston Red Sox prospect Ceddanne Rafaela speaks with the media ahead of a game against the Baltimore Orioles on September 26, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
Dave Dombrowski deserves more credit for recent Red Sox farm system success
In his absence, things have come full circle for Dave Dombrowski in Boston.
When the Red Sox abruptly parted ways with Dombrowski during a late-September Sunday Night Baseball game at Fenway in 2019, he departed an organization on the brink of a disaster partially of his own creation. The payroll was enormous, the farm system had plummeted to the bottom of the rankings, and they were about to finish a disappointing, injury-marred season one year after winning more regular-season games than any squad in franchise history and the World Series.
Though he was only a partial orchestrator of the collapse, Dombrowski became the scapegoat for all of it. In a state of frustration, it was easy to overlook the fact that he did what he was brought to Boston to do: win a championship. But when the Sox failed to come close to repeating the following year, everyone wanted someone to blame for the come-down. Or, as The Dark Knight famously put it:
“You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.”
But taking the long view, Dombrowski did not do as much damage as it seemed at the time; in fact, his impact on the organization goes much deeper than a gleaming trophy. Look at MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 for the organization now, and it’s littered with players signed or drafted during the Dombrowski era. The moves he made to acquire players like Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel emptied out the upper levels of the farm system, but many of his Sox draft picks and international signings are only getting close to the big leagues now. Brayan Bello and Triston Casas, two of the club’s best prospects, made their debuts this season. Both were products of his tenure, and several of the prospects who will debut in 2023 or 2024 will be, too.
This should come as no surprise to anyone who’s followed Dombrowski’s career. As he transformed the Detroit Tigers from perennial losers to pennant-winners in the 2000s and 2010s, he drafted some of the best talent of the last two decades, including Justin Verlander, Andrew Miller, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Castellanos.
Here are five promising prospects that should remind fans to be grateful to their former GM…
Bryan Mata – signed 2016
Injuries have derailed Bryan Mata’s progress through the Sox system, but it appears he’s finally coming out the other side.
Mata signed with the Sox in January 2016 and began his professional career at 17 years old. He’d risen as high as Double-A before the pandemic, and then he had Tommy John in April of 2021, derailing his progress for over a year. He’d previously dealt with injuries to his groin, back, shoulder, and hamstring.
Working back from Tommy John, Mata made a few rehab starts with Low- and High-A before joining the Double-A Portland SeaDogs for two months. Over 48 2/3 innings, he held opposing hitters to .202/.300/.295, striking out 58 and only allowing 10 earned runs. At the very end of August, Mata jumped up to Triple-A Worcester for the remainder of the season and made five starts for the penultimate level. He got hit a bit harder there, giving up nine earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.
Aside from the 2019 Arizona Fall League, Mata has spent his entire professional career as a starting pitcher. He made his first and only relief appearance this season, but several scouting reports from MLB Pipeline and SoxProspects.com see him in a possible relief role at the big-league level.
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 26: Boston Red Sox prospect Ceddanne Rafaela speaks with the media ahead of a game against the Baltimore Orioles on September 26, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /
Now the No. 3 prospect in the system, Rafaela put himself on the map when he moved from the infield to the outfield this year. His defensive prowess stunned the baseball world, with his manager in Portland even saying that he “runs circles” around Mookie Betts at that point in his minor-league career. The 22-year-old also brings plus defense at shortstop and third base and has played all over the diamond.
Rafaela doesn’t just seem like a perennial Gold Glover in the making; he also led the Sox system with 63 extra-base hits. He needs to work on drawing walks and lowering his strikeout rate, but it’s clear he’s going to be someone special for this organization. If he continues to play well in the early months next season, expect him to move up quickly; MLB has 2023 as his big-league ETA.
Eddinson Paulino – signed 2018
When the Sox signed Eddinson Paulino on July 2, 2018, it wasn’t just the first day of the international signing period opened, it was also his 16th birthday.
Still only 20 years old, Paulino is probably at least two years away from a potential debut, but he had an impressive season with Low-A Salem. Over 114 games, he hit .266/.359/.469 with 66 walks and105 strikeouts. He collected 123 hits, including 35 doubles, 10 triples, and 13 home runs, the second-most extra-base hits behind Rafaela, a feat made all the more impressive by the fact that Salem’s ballpark is notoriously unfriendly for hitters.
The Sox’ No. 13 prospect is considered more of an offensive talent than a defender, but he’s also displayed impressive speed on the basepaths, stealing 27 bases in 32 attempts this season. Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero calls him a “dynamic” player who “can impact the game in several ways.”
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 09: A general view of Fenway Park with the 9 World Series pennant logos before the home opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 09, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /
Wikelman Gonzalez – signed 2018
The Sox signed Wikelman Gonzalez on the same day they signed Eddinson Paulino.
Now 20 years old, the righty is coming off the longest season of his professional career. His 98 1/3 innings between Low- and High-A were nearly double his previous season-high, and it was definitely an adjustment, as Gonzalez’s 4.21 ERA is by far the worst of his time in the organization.
However, Gonzalez actually pitched pretty effectively at High-A, only allowing five earned runs in 17 innings (four starts). He’s able to limit walks and strikes out a lot of batters.
There’s a chance Gonzalez could make his debut in 2024, but given his age and experience, more likely, his day will come the year after.
Brandon Walter – 26th round, 2019
The scouting report on Brandon Walter describes him as having “a better arsenal than any southpaw in Boston’s system.”
He’s also the only lefty in the organization’s top ten and one of only two in the top 30.
Walter is the oldest player on this list, because the Sox drafted him out of the University of Delaware in 2019, after he’d had Tommy John. Unlike Mata and Gonzalez, two starting pitchers who’ve also been considered for bullpen roles, Walter began the 2021 season in the bullpen and pitched his way into the rotation. He has a low-90s fastball, but the scouting reports are more dazzled by his slider, which is capable of shutting down lefty and righty hitters.
The No. 7 prospect made nine starts for Double-A this season, posting a 2.88 ERA over 50 innings. He struggled more in his two starts for Triple-A, allowing seven earned runs over 7 2/3 innings.
The Sox will spend a significant portion of the offseason upgrading their starting rotation and bullpen, but keep an eye on Walter in spring training. He’s expected to debut next season.
