Boston Red Sox Prospects: Handing out awards for 2022
Red Sox starting pitching prospect of the year – Bryan Mata
Bryan Mata came back after two years off and went back to dominating like it was nothing. It looked like he never even missed a start, absolutely wild.
The right-handed pitcher went through four levels of the minor leagues in 2022. This was because he was rehabbing after missing 2020 due to the MiLB season being canceled and 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. Missing two years in a row, Mata would have been forgiven if he started off slowly. There’s a reason I call him El Idolo though.
He made one start (two innings) in Low-A. Next, he made three starts (nine innings) in High-A. After that, we saw Mata appear in nine games (48 2/3 innings) in Double-A. Finally, the Venezuela native made his Triple-A debut, making five starts (23 1/3 innings) at the level.
In total, that was 83 innings of work. Mata posted a 2.49 ERA, .201 BAA, and 1.28 WHIP in that time. He did have a bit of a walk issue (46), but also racked up the strikeouts, with 105.
Outside of the walks, there was nothing you could really complain about. For one thing, Mata’s pitches looked great, including a fastball that can hit triple-digits. He wasn’t giving up hits (as shown by his .201 BAA), and only allowed five home runs all year.
That’s something Mata’s always been great at though. He’s allowed just 18 home runs in 398 innings over five years in the minor leagues and has never allowed more than seven in a single season.
The BAA was new though. That was the lowest opposing batting average Mata’s ever posted in a season. It was by a pretty large margin too, with his old career-best being .229. The ERA was also a career-best, so this really was a spectacular season for Mata.
We also got to see the righty post a new career-high in strikeouts. In his last start of the year (working in Triple-A nonetheless), Mata recorded 10 punch outs in 5 1/3 innings. That was one higher than his previous high of nine (which he had done on a couple of occasions).
This will likely be the last time Mata is eligible for any prospect awards. Unsurprisingly, he’s going out with a bang. Returning from injury and looking solid would have been impressive. Doing what Mata did this season is a perfect reminder of the ace prospect that he is though.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Murphy: 24-year-old lefty posted a 4.03 ERA, .220 BAA, 1.28 WHIP, and 149 Ks in 152 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
Thad Ward: 25-year-old righty posted a 2.28 ERA, .212 BAA, 1.15 WHIP, and 66 Ks in 51 1/3 innings between four levels. Returning from TJ surgery like Mata, only made two appearances last year before the injury.
Shane Drohan: 23-year-old lefty posted a 3.89 ERA, .227 BAA, 1.26 WHIP, and 157 Ks in 129 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A.
Wikelman Gonzalez: 20-year-old righty posted a 4.21 ERA, .212 BAA, and 121 Ks in 98 1/3 innings between Low-A and High-A.
Juan Daniel Encarnacion: 21-year-old righty posted a 4.05 ERA, .239 BAA, and 129 K in 113 1/3 innings between Low-A and High-A.
Red Sox relief pitching prospect of the year – Andrew Politi
Andrew Politi had some incredible competition for this award this year. However, two of his biggest competitors ended up receiving the call-up to the Majors late in the year. Zack Kelly and Franklin German are both getting their shot in Boston.
Politi should be there too, if we’re being honest. The right-handed reliever has been absolute nails all year long. Starting the year in Double-A, Politi was facing an uphill battle. He posted some ugly stats in 2021 while being a starter for most of the season. Converting to a reliever for his last few outings, things were looking positive, but he still needed to prove himself.
2022 has left zero doubt, the bullpen fits Politi perfectly.
It didn’t take long for the 26-year-old to earn a promotion to Triple-A. He didn’t skip a beat following the move. Politi posted a 2.34 ERA, .186 BAA, and 0.97 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A. In 69 1/3 innings, the righty struck out 83 batters while walking just 22. He only surrendered six home runs and went a perfect 8-for-8 in save opportunities.
It’s pretty baffling that Politi didn’t get a chance in the Majors this year. He was so consistently dominant. There were very few hiccups in his season. Even following his promotion to Triple-A he didn’t seem phased.
Politi has four pitches. Pitch one is a fastball that works in the low-to-mid-90s. Then there’s a mid-80s slider with a hard break to it, his best pitch. Next, a high-70s curveball drops significantly on hitters. Finally, a changeup in the mid-80s with a short late fade.
There’s a ton of variety in that pitch mix. Andrew Politi uses it perfectly to toy with hitters, leading to a lot of strikeouts and plenty of weak contact. He won’t qualify for prospect awards next year, because he should start 2023 in the Major Leagues.
Honorable Mention:
Michael Gettys: 2.23 ERA, .272 BAA, and 1.32 WHIP in 48 1/3 innings pitched between High-A and Double-A. Made major strides when promoted to Portland.
Luis Guerrero: 22-year-old righty posted a 3.23 ERA, .181 BAA, 1.10 WHIP, and 59 Ks in 39 innings between Rookie Ball, Low-A, and High-A.
Brian Keller: 28-year-old righty posted a 3.27 ERA, .200 BAA, 1.18 WHIP, and 126 Ks in 113 innings in Triple-A (20 starts, 11 relief appearances).
Red Sox offensive prospect of the year – Ceddanne Rafaela
There were a lot of amazing candidates for the Offensive Prospect of the Year award. Ceddanne Rafaela had to take it home though. He was a production monster in every category and dominated at two different levels in the minor leagues.
The right-handed hitter posted a .299/.342/.538 slash line with 32 doubles, 10 triples, and 21 home runs between High-A and Double-A this season. He drove in 86 runs, scored 82 more, and stole 28 bases.
Rafaela showed major signs of an offensive explosion as the year went on in 2021. He didn’t just live up to the expectations, but he blew them out of the water. And he’s now shown that he can be productive in every facet of the game for a full season.
This was a wild year. We’re talking prime Mookie Betts/Jose Altuve-type production. The run-scoring was there, and he drove in a ton of runs. Loads of doubles and double-digit triples show off a combination of power and speed. Do you know what else shows off a combination of power and speed though? A 20/20 season.
Hitting 21 home runs and stealing 28 bases feels like something that should have been talked about more. Don’t get me wrong, Red Sox Nation has fallen in love with Rafaela. But it still feels like the national media is a little hesitant about that. Putting up that slash line and all those numbers deserves more respect though.
That’s something I think we’ll see next year. His combination of power, speed, and defense makes Rafaela a truly unique prospect. Plenty of people have that, sure. But not many have all of them at such a high level.
Something else that needs to be brought to everyone’s attention is that at this time last year, Rafaela was on the Low-A roster. Just 12 months later and he’s terrorizing Double-A pitching at absurd levels. Scary.
As I mentioned before, there were some strong candidates for this award. You’ll see them in the honorable mentions. But what you’ll also notice is that Rafaela managed to outdo them in nearly every category. It was truly an elite season.
Honorable Mention:
(SS) Marcelo Mayer: 19-year-old left-handed hitter slashed .280/.399/.489 with 45 extra-base hits, 53 RBI, 61 runs, and went 17-for-17 in stolen base attempts between Low-A and High-A.
(1B) Niko Kavadas: 23-year-old slashed left-handed hitter .280/.443/.547 with 52 extra-base hits, 86 RBI, 71 runs, one steal, and 102 walks between Low-A, High-A, and Double-A.
(UM) Eddinson Paulino: 20-year-old left-handed hitter slashed .266/.359/.469 with 58 extra-base hits, 66 RBI, 96 runs, and 27 steals in Low-A.
(SS) Matthew Lugo: 21-year-old slashed right-handed hitter .282/.338/.492 with 54 extra-base hits, 79 RBI, 77 runs, and 20 steals between High-A and Double-A.
(3B) Blaze Jordan: 19-year-old right-handed hitter slashed .289/.363/.445 with 45 extra-base hits, 68 RBI, 60 runs, and five steals between Low-A and High-A.
Red Sox baserunning prospect of the year – David Hamilton
The Red Sox had a lot of great candidates for this. David Hamilton wins by a pretty comfortable margin though. Could I have given it to anyone else other than the man that broke the Portland Sea Dogs’ franchise record for most steals in a season?
Hamilton came over to the Red Sox organization in the trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to the Milwaukee Brewers. A large contingent of fans for some reason love calling that the “Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr.” trade. They use that as a way to bash the move.
Boston also got two prospects in return. Alex Binelas struggled when he moved up to Double-A, but still managed 25 home runs and 78 runs batted in this season. Then there’s David Hamilton.
Hamilton got off to a ridiculous start but quickly cooled down. After a rough few months, the left-handed hitter got back on track though and ended the year with some great numbers. Hamilton slashed .251/.338/.402 with 16 doubles, nine triples, and 12 home runs in Double-A. He drove in 42 runs, scored 81 more, and even walked 56 times.
Through the ups-and-downs of his season, one thing that never slumped was his speed. And wow did he show that off, a lot. Hamilton finished the year 70-for-78 on stolen base attempts. That is not a typo, by the way. He actually stole 70 bases.
The sheer volume is impressive, but there’s so much more to it. Hamilton accomplished this efficiently. Only being caught eight times shows that he was smart, but also just too fast to catch. Multiple times, the team pitched out on a steal attempt, and Hamilton simply beat out the throw anyways.
We also got to see him leg out doubles and triples that shouldn’t have been doubles and triples. Scoring from first or second on hits that most players wouldn’t even attempt to score on was a pretty common occurrence too. Hamilton has elite speed, and he knows how to use it. It’s one thing to be fast, it’s another to be fast and smart.
Say what you will about his streaky hitting, but David Hamilton is stupid fast. That’s something that will play at any level. If the Red Sox can help him figure it out at the plate to become a little more consistent, he’ll be a weapon in the Majors.
Honorable Mention:
(CF) Ceddanne Rafaela: 28-for-35 on steal attempts. He’s extremely aggressive but smart. Stole multiple extra-base hits when the defense was lacking for even a second.
(UM) Eddinson Paulino: 27-for-32 on steal attempts, good at taking an extra base when the defense gives it to him. Very aggressive.
(SS) Brainer Bonaci: 28-for-34 on steal attempts. Aggressive, but usually very smart about it.
(SS) Marcelo Mayer: 17-for-17 on steal attempts. Very smart, but could be a little more aggressive, but will take an extra base if the defense isn’t paying attention.
(UM) Christian Koss: 16-for-21 on steal attempts. Underrated burner, has good aggression, insanely fast down the first-base-line, and will catch defenses sleeping.
Red Sox defensive prospect of the year – Ceddanne Rafaela
I honestly don’t think there’s ever been an easier award to hand out. That’s wild considering how good the honorable mentions are here. Ceddanne Rafaela wins the position at centerfield, but he also wins it at shortstop. And honestly, if he was playing second base and third base like he did last year, I feel like it’s safe to assume he’d be in the running at those positions as well.
It’s such a crazy combination with Rafaela. He shows incredible instincts, especially for someone his age. He always seems to make the right read and jump off the bat. Great speed gives him top-tier range. This leads to him making an extraordinary amount of difficult plays look routine.
The number of times I’ve watched a game, and the announcer thinks it’s a hit off the bat just for Rafaela to make a normal running catch is pretty wild. That’s nothing to the number of times the announcer thinks it’s a hit up until the very last second when Rafaela goes Randy Orton on everyone and slithers in from out of nowhere to make a diving play.
Rafaela’s more than just highlight reel plays though. Elite arm with great accuracy that plays perfectly in the outfield and at shortstop. He looks incredibly smooth and comfortable at both positions. That being said, he had more than his fair share of eye-popping plays no matter where he was on the field.
It’s looking more and more like centerfield is the position for Rafaela. Some of his value comes from his ridiculous ability to play Gold Glove defense at multiple spots of the diamond though. So I think the Red Sox will utilize that to an extent. Either way, he’s bringing home hardware in the future.
Honorable Mention:
(SS) Brainer Bonaci: Best defensive shortstop prospect I’ve seen in a while. Great arm and range, and makes lunatic plays. 17 errors between second base, third base, shortstop, and (one inning) right field.
(UM) Christian Koss: Underrated defender. Looks good at shortstop, third base, and second base (even threw in some outfield time). He has a good arm, great range, and is very versatile.
(SS) Marcelo Mayer: Very steady defender. Good range, quick feet and soft hands, and a strong arm. 12 errors in 694 1/3 innings at shortstop this season.
(C) Kole Cottam: Best pitch-framer in the Red Sox system. Has turned himself into a fantastic defensive catcher. Good arm, good plate blocking, and sneaky athleticism.
(OF) Phillip Sikes: Was a highlight factory in the outfield. A combination of arm, instincts, range, and glove made him extremely fun to watch all year long.
(C) Elih Marrero: His athleticism at the catcher position is top-tier. This led to Marrero making a lot of impressive plays from behind the plate.
(2B) Nick Yorke: One error in 593 1/3 innings at second base this year. Makes all the routine plays. Has good range and a very solid arm for the position. Massively underrated part of his game.
Red Sox breakout prospect of the year – Ceddanne Rafaela
Okay, I’m not going to lie, I considered not giving this award to Ceddanne Rafaela. That’s probably the dumbest thing you’ve heard all day, but I have my reasons. I would have given Rafaela the “next-up” award (ironically the next award). However, I also would have given him the “breakout” award.
So even though I didn’t have the awards last year, I wasn’t sure how I felt about giving it to him now, because can you be the “breakout prospect” two years in a row? I’ve decided that yes, yes you can. When you take the extra step that he did this year, it qualifies you as a breakout again.
Rafaela went from an unknown piece to an electric prospect last year. He went from “electric prospect” to “superstar” this time around though.
You’ve already seen what he did this year in previous slides. That’s what happens when you win most awards, and take home honorable mentions in others. Rafaela will win Gold Gloves in the Majors. He could do it at shortstop or in center field. Although he didn’t play there this year, if he went back to second base or third base, I’m willing to bet he could make a run at the award there too.
Offensively, he was on demon time in 2022. Rafaela slashed .299/.342/.538 with 32 doubles, 10 triples, and 21 home runs between High-A and Double-A. The right-handed hitter drove in 86 runs, scored 82 more, and stole 28 bases as well. A 20/20 season is impressive, doing so with a .299 average is a whole different level though.
Rafaela wasn’t even ranked in MLB’s top 30 prospects in the Boston Red Sox system at the end of last year. He cracked 30 to start this season. Now he’s in the top 100 of all prospects in baseball.
Rafaela even took a considerable jump in my rankings. I had him at 10 last season, and he’s somewhere else this year (you’ll have to wait to see where when it comes out, gotta get those clicks baby). Going from someone that some Red Sox fans knew, to someone getting recognition throughout baseball definitely qualifies as a worthy “breakout” candidate.
He took home a ton of awards today, you’re probably tired of seeing his name in this article. I mean, I ran out of images to use for him in these slides. But there’s a reason I love telling everyone that Rafaela is your favorite prospect’s favorite prospect. He’s that good.
And like your favorite rapper’s favorite rapper, MF DOOM, used to say “Just remember ALL CAPS when you spell the man’s name”, just remember ALL NAMES when you speak on Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marie Rafaela.
Honorable Mention:
(OF) Miguel Bleis: 18-year-old right-handed hitter slashed .301/.353/.542 with 23 extra bases, 27 RBI, 28 runs, and 18 steals in 40 games in Rookie Ball
(1B) Niko Kavadas: Posted a .280/.443/.547 slash line with 52 extra-base hits, 86 RBI, 71 runs, one steal, and 102 walks between Low-A, High-A, and Double-A. Two promotions in one year.
(SS) Matthew Lugo: Slashed .282/.338/.492 with 54 extra-base hits, 79 RBI, 77 runs, and 20 steals between High-A and Double-A.
(RP) Andrew Politi: 2.45 ERA, .187 BAA, 0.97 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts (compared to 21 walks) in 66 innings pitched between Double-A and Triple-A.
(UM) Eddinson Paulino: Slashed .266/.359/.469 with 58 extra-base hits, 66 RBI, 96 runs, and 27 stolen bases in Low-A, his first year at the level
(SS) Brainer Bonaci: Slashed .262/.397/.385 with 31 extra-base hits, 50 RBI, 86 runs, and 28 stolen bases in Low-A. Had only played in 13 games at the level before this year.
Red Sox Next-Up Prospect of the Year – Brainer Bonaci and Eddison Paulino
TWO players? It looks like we have ourselves a wild card entry, everyone! Look, this is my article I’ll do what I want.
The “next-up” award goes to the player (or in this case player) that produced this year but isn’t quite there yet with the recognition. That’s not to say the media and the fans don’t talk about them ever. But that, at this time next year, they have a chance to be a star in the system.
That means this disqualifies certain prospects. You aren’t going to see someone like Mikey Romero win, because he was the first-round pick in the 2022 draft. There is already a ton of hype surrounding him. Even Miguel Bleis is disqualified because he’s already sitting at number six in the prospect rankings according to MLB.com. And fans that haven’t even seen him play are already going crazy over Bleis.
Just thought that should be explained so we don’t get the comments asking where certain players are.
Now, that being said, Brainer Bonaci and Eddison Paulino 100% deserve this award. Paulino built his name up very well this season. He plays most positions in the field and has decent pop out of his left-handed bat. Paulino slashed .266/.359/.469 with 35 doubles, 10 triples, and 13 home runs in Low-A this year. The 20-year-old drove in 66 runs, scored 96 more, and stole 27 bases.
Paulino nearly disqualified himself from this list if we’re being honest. There’s a decent buzz around him already. But it’s not nearly as big as it should be. Next year on a bigger stage, Paulino could take another step forward and get the fans salivating.
Bonaci is one of the better defensive players I’ve seen in the minor leagues in a while. He plays second base and third base but is primarily a shortstop. And it’s just smooth. Bones can make circus plays without breaking a sweat.
Meanwhile, as the season went on, he came along nicely on the offensive side of things. The switch-hitter slashed .262/.397/.385 with 19 doubles, six triples, and six home runs in Low-A. He drove in 50 runs, scored 86 more, and stole 28 bases.
You’ve seen me say it 1,000 times, but what impressed me most about the 20-year-old was his plate discipline. Bonaci walked as many times (89) as he struck out (89) this season. That would be impressive for anyone, let alone someone that was still a teenager for half the season.
Honorable Mention:
(SS) Luis Ravelo: 18-year-old switch-hitter who flashed a glove and excitement in his bat in a short Low-A stint at the end of the season.
(SP) Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz: 19-year-old righty with an interesting pitch mix, posted a 1.88 ERA over 38 1/3 innings between Rookie Ball and Low-A this season.
(SP) Luis Perales: 19-year-old righty with a disgusting curveball, posted a 1.77 ERA over 35 2/3 innings between Rookie Ball and Low-A this season.
