BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 13: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees warms up on deck during the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox on September 13, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.(Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
It hasn’t been the same since Boston bested New York in historic, never-before-seen fashion in 2004, and it may never return to what it was before those epic October nights.
But if the Red Sox make a serious play for Aaron Judge this winter, it could bring things closer to the boiling point of the early aughts. Judge and the Yankees have been unable to come to terms on an extension; GM Brian Cashman’s seven-year, $213.5 million offer back before Opening Day looks absurd now that Judge is having an MVP-caliber season. The Yankees say they want to keep Judge in pinstripes, but they’ll either need to pay up big-time, or part ways with their homegrown star. Sound familiar?
But whether or not Judge wants to play for Boston should be largely irrelevant. Here are three reasons why the Sox shouldn’t try to sign him…
3. Red Sox must prioritize homegrown players like Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts over Aaron Judge
Over the last two decades, the Red Sox have developed an unpalatable pattern of scrimping on their proven, homegrown stars while eagerly shelling out for big free agents. Rarely, if ever, has it ended well for them, and yet they persist.
With Xander Bogaerts on the precipice of opting out of the team-friendly extension he initiated in 2019 and Rafael Devers still not locked into the contract he’s earned, the Sox are at what feels like one of the most pivotal crossroads in franchise history. Will they cement their horrible habit of throwing out the best players they’ve developed, or will they finally break the chain?
The Sox have plenty of money to play with this offseason, but the priority must be these two infielders, who’ve become the cornerstones of the franchise and should be valued and compensated as such.
If the Sox were to prioritize a Yankees slugger instead, it would be the ultimate insult.
BOSTON, MA – JULY 8: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees pauses before a game against the Boston Red Sox on July 8, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /
2. Aaron Judge’s stats at Fenway Park are concerning
Judge may have notched his 56th and 57th homers of the season at Fenway, but it’s usually not that easy for him at America’s Most Beloved Ballpark.
Even with the boost from those round-trippers, his career numbers in Boston are still far from impressive. Over 37 games, he’s hit .193/.301/.393 with 29 hits, including six doubles and eight home runs. He’s struck out 48 times. And it’s not like the Red Sox pitching has been dominant since 2017.
Then there’s the matter of postseason play. Sox fans will recall Judge going 1-for-4 with a single in last year’s Wild Card game at Fenway. Over 35 career postseason games, in general, Judge has hit .230/.340/.504. His 11 home runs are impressive, his 51 strikeouts less so.
He also has yet to play in a World Series; Bogaerts and Devers have won a World Series (two in Bogaerts’ case).
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 13: A general view of Nick Pivetta #37 of the Boston Red Sox delivering a pitch to Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees during the first inning of a game on September 13, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /
1. Aaron Judge’s age should factor into Red Sox possible free agency decision
Aaron Judge will turn 31 next April, so it’s fair to ask why the Sox would even consider paying him when they wouldn’t pay Mookie Betts in his age-26 season back in 2019.
Had Judge accepted the Yankees’ offer in the spring, he would’ve been under contract until his late 30s. Players don’t typically get healthier as they age and add more wear and tear to their bodies, and Judge already has a lengthy injury history. Following his Rookie of the Year season in 2017, he played 214 of 324 regular-season games between 2018-19, and 28 games in the shortened 2020 season. He’s been healthy and homering this year, but that’s not the norm for him.
Any lengthy contract comes with the knowledge that the team is paying for the player’s peak; enduring the later years of decline is simply part of that cost. But it’s fair to argue that a significant portion of Judge’s peak might already be behind him. He’s certainly not old, and clearly not declining, but giving a 30-year-old player a 10-year contract (it was rumored that was the length Judge preferred) is irresponsible. Especially when the Sox can give the same deal to 25-year-old Devers.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely the Sox make a serious move for Judge. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom may imitate the front office’s interest to mess with the rivals and drive up Judge’s price. But hopefully, he’s keenly aware that Judge cannot be Boston’s priority.
