New MLB rules will complicate Red Sox pitching decisions for 2023 roster

The already-complicated offseason that lies ahead for the Boston Red Sox just got trickier.

When Major League Baseball’s free agency period opens up later this fall, teams will have to factor a new metric into how they approach adding pitching to their rosters.

On Friday, MLB announced that the pitch timer will be implemented in 2023, in an effort to speed up the pace of play. As a result, teams will need to focus on pitch tempo as well as the actual efficacy of a pitcher when constructing their rosters this offseason.

According to Baseball Savant’s Pitch Tempo leaderboards, the  Sox pitching staff currently boasts some efficient arms. Rich Hill continues to defy the concept of slowing down with age, as he leads his team with a tempo of 15.4 seconds in between pitches with the bases empty, and 19.8 seconds with runners on base.

Brayan Bello, who made his big-league debut earlier this summer, is more accustomed to the pitch timer than most of his fellow pitchers, as MLB experimented in the minor leagues before implementing the rule. He is the second-fastest worker on the mound when the bases are empty (15.5) but works slower than any other Sox pitcher when he’s put runners on (26).

When MLB begins using the timer next spring, pitchers will have 15 seconds in between pitches when the bases are empty, and 20 seconds with runners on. The pitcher must be in motion when the timer runs out or he’ll be penalized with an automatic ball. Baseball Savant has a metric for this, too. While the Tempo stat measures the median time between pitch releases, the Timer Equivalency removes the approximately six seconds that elapse between the pitcher delivering the pitch and receiving the ball back from the catcher. Aside from Matt Barnes, all current Sox pitchers with at least 50 pitches thrown this year fall within the new limits for bases-empty situations. With runners on, he, Jeurys Familia, and Connor Seabold would be penalized.

How will MLB’s new pitch timer rule impact the Red Sox in free agency?

These numbers are all fine and dandy for now, but the Sox will be replacing a significant portion of their pitching staff this winter, as several players reach free agency and others’ performances don’t merit a return. The front office is already under fire for shoddy roster construction this year, in particular, Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom’s pitching decisions. They’re expected to target more marquee starting pitching this season, but pitchers who are both efficient and effective will be in even higher demand now that the pitch timer is a factor. Nick Pivetta and Chris Sale are the only regular starting pitchers currently under team control for next year. They’re efficient enough under the Timer Equivalent, though Sale’s health is never guaranteed at this point. Who else will the Sox add to their rotation? Michael Wacha, who currently ranks fourth on the roster with bases empty and 12th with runners on, is a solid bet to receive a Qualifying Offer.

The idea that teams must now factor pitch tempo into their roster construction is yet another example of how the overhead rules often fail to take the human aspect into consideration. Matt Strahm recently went into detail about his frustration with the league’s continued decision not to take player input into account when making these decisions, a sentiment echoed by several players around the league.

It’s also worth noting that the trio of new rules send conflicting, even contradictory messages. The larger bases are intended to make the game safer, but the pitch timer rushing pitchers could lead to more injuries on the mound. The timer also forces pitchers to adapt, while the shift restrictions do the opposite for hitters, adjusting to them instead of demanding that hitters make adjustments.

Altogether, it looks like baseball isn’t getting better, just faster and messier, and far more complicated for the Red Sox.