Projecting the Boston Red Sox 2023/2024 rotation
Will this be the Red Sox rotation’s future?
The Red Sox rotation will significantly change by next season, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill potentially leaving. The Red Sox will be left with a foundation to build upon, and it will be two current members of the rotation, and the rest will be those we have seen brought in from Worcester (AAA) to fill in.
The rookies have faced a trial by fire, and some have suffered third-degree burns compliments of assorted hitters who took full advantage of a not-so-finished product. The pain of watching young arms attempting to refine their skills, find that extra pitch, and discover the middle of the plate is not the best location to toss a pitch.
Just what will the potential rotation look like for 2023 and possibly 2024? As mentioned, the foundation is there, and the development of the young arms will be set in motion to build on the foundation. The youngsters fail, then a whole world of hurt and potential trades and expensive free agents becomes the option.
Can Chris Sale find the magic to lead the Red Sox rotation?
The foundation will start with Chris Sale. That could be the top of the rotation for next season, with Sale on the books for $75 MM through 2025 if a vesting option kicks in. The contract is Sale’s to demonstrate some redemption after a multitude of injuries. This will be pure professional pride on Sale’s part for 2023.
If recovery magic happens and Sale returns to his pre-injury form, the Red Sox rotation has an ace. The question is can Sale adjust if that magic has depreciated a bit? Dipping into Red Sox history, I have a comparison.
Lefty Grove topped the American League in strikeouts seven straight seasons while pitching for the Athletics. Tom Yawkey bought Grove from the cash-strapped A’s, and Grove went 8-8, 6.50 in his first Boston season. Dead arm? Sore shoulder? Age? Take your pick or combine all three.
The following season Grove rebounded and nailed 20 wins and the first of four ERA titles with Boston. The flame-throwing was gone, but the pitching ability was not. Grove won 105 games for Boston and 300 for his Hall of Fame career. Grove adjusted, and so will Sale. If not just more dead money.
The mixed bag of Nick Pivetta
What a steal Nick Pivetta has been for the Red Sox. Pivetta has been occasionally rocked this season, but the overall performance has been one of stability for a desperately needed rotation. Pivetta will give mixed results, and the idea is for the positive to outweigh the negative.
Pivetta has a nice three-pitch assortment, is not petrified to toss a strike, and is a fast worker. Pivetta’s fastball is classified as “heavy,” a somewhat oblique term in baseball to describe a heater that pitches significantly greater than its speed may indicate.
Pivetta is under team control through 2025 and stands to make a bundle of money in arbitration if he continues on a promising path. Much less if he has games like that against the Yankees on 7/16. So dipping again into the past, just what Red Sox righty does Pivetta reminds me of?
John Lackey had a similar three-pitch fastball, curve, and slider assortment. The same described “heavy” fastball and a physical resemblance to Pivetta. Lackey had the same gritty style and pitched almost an entire season with a blown-out arm. Lackey would also pitch dynamic games and games in which Stevie Wonder could get two hits.
Can Josh Winckowski’s sinker lock up a rotation slot?
Right-hander Josh Winckowski came to Boston as part of the three-team trade that sent Andrew Benintendi to Kansas City. Winckowski was pressed into service with the rash of rotation casualties and did a commendable job.
Winckowski relies primarily on a fastball and slider and has dabbled with a curve and change-up. His ability to induce ground balls with his sinking fastball is essential. Get it up; it can go out mighty quick, but Winckowski has shown the ability to be a solid potential contributor this season and beyond.
Drifting back to the 1970s, the Red Sox had another righty with a nasty sinker, Bob Stanley. Stanley was primarily noted for his bullpen work, which may be a possible future for Winckowski.
Stanley spent his entire 13-year MLB career with the Red Sox, with his most successful duty being out of the bullpen. Multiple innings were a specialty for Stanley, and Winckowski could slide into a similar role with the current Red Sox.
Brayan Bello has potential Ace talent
Brayan Bello got lit up like a Fourth of July fireworks display, but the gloss was not removed. This kid has the tools to be a solid MLB starter and slide into a number two slot in the future rotation. Bello did not panic over his rough MLB introduction, which is a good sign.
Bello has the usual prerequisite of a high 90s fastball, a change-up, and a slider. Bello is at work on a curve and, more importantly, at work on location. In the minors pitching mistakes often induce no numerical pain, but in the majors, they become statcast material.
Bello is somewhat of a physical throwback since he is lean, lanky, and checks in around six feet. I found his style of throwing relatively relaxed and a comfortable motion which is the antithesis of Sale’s.
Just who does Bello remind me of? I wish I could say Pedro Martinez, but a Martinez is rare. Physically I can see the resemblance to Clay Buchholz. Buchholz heater sat in the mid-90s, had a nice curve, and a change-up. Unlike Bello, Buchholz tossed a no-hitter in his second MLB start but then had two seasons of tepid results before surfacing as a solid starter.
Kutter Crawford has been a pleasant surprise. Will it continue?
Kutter Crawford has impressed in the small sample Red Sox fans have witnessed. The singular moment was against the New York Yankees with five strong innings, earning some serious pitching creed. Is it deserved?
Crawford is a 26-year-old righty who has slogged his way through the Red Sox system as a 16th-round draft choice (2017). As his name implies, his pitching weapon of choice is the cutter set up with a solid fastball and good curve, but the killer is the cutter. Will Crawford be part of the rotation in 2023 and beyond?
As a gamble, his shot is probably in the comfortable 50/50 range, depending on that cutter. Mariano Rivera made a living off just about the best tossed, and Crawford has a long – very long – way to go before matching Mo.
The Red Sox have had two pitchers in the past who developed and utilized a cutter in the later phases of their careers. Mike Timlin mixed his up with his fastball starting in 2006, and Timlin was 40 years old and had excellent baseball survival skills.
Scott Atchinson took a long route to MLB and the Red Sox but provided three solid seasons out of the bullpen. Atchinson toyed with the pitch before bringing it into his pitching toolbox.
Connor Seabold may be the odd man out in a projected rotation
Can righty Connor Seabold become a lower-end rotation starter? The MLB slate is certainly disappointing in his starts. Seabold’s fastball, slider, and curve offered no mystery in his short stints, but the book is not closed on the 26-year-old acquired in a trade from Philadelphia. At Worcester, Seabold was a steady factor in the WooSox rotation, but MLB is far different.
By today’s standards, Seabold is not a hard thrower since his heater stays in the low 90s and his other offerings need refinement to compensate. Seabold is a work in progress and may be supplanted by Bryan Mata and possibly Brandon Walter, and Seabold’s future could be spot-starting and long relief.
When I saw Seabold take the hill last season, one name surfaced from my memories regarding pitching style and physical resemblance – Sonny Siebert. Seabold has a world of improvement ahead to measure up to Siebert, who won 57 games for the Red Sox over four full seasons.
In his first Boston season, Siebert did bullpen and started duty on his way to a 14-10 record. Two seasons later, Siebert became an All-Star and eventually was shipped to the Texas Rangers. With Seabold, the clock is running on age and performance.