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4 Potential dark-horse Red Sox trade targets

By Brendan Strawn |
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - JULY 25: Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on July 25, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants 7-0. (Photo by Kelsey Grant/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - JULY 25: Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on July 25, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants 7-0. (Photo by Kelsey Grant/Getty Images)
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3 Potential dark-horse trade candidates for the Red Sox

When it comes to buying or selling by the August 2 trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox remain somewhat of a mystery.

On Monday, they dealt Christian Vázquez and Jake Diekman, but also added Reese McGuire and Tommy Pham, so they’re not entirely sellers, but also certainly shouldn’t be considered all-in buyers.

According to FanGraphs, the 52-52 Sox have a 28.3% chance of making the playoffs via Wild Card, far from a sure thing. As such, it’s important to look beyond this season, so not every trade proposal on this list is with a playoff run in mind. The Sox have many expiring contracts after this year, so they have immediate and long-term needs to be met.

These four players and potential deals could be exactly what the doctor ordered to get the clubhouse going again…

Could the Red Sox get Merrill Kelly at the trade deadline?

Ever since the World Series run back in 2018, pitching has been a constant need.  Due to injuries and underperforming, pitching depth is virtually nonexistent. And with nearly every starting pitcher on their roster hitting free agency after this season, the Sox need to start eyeing replacements.

The case for the Sox to pursue a trade for Merrill Kelly is a simple one to make. Aside from the injured Michael Wacha, the Sox don’t have a single starting pitcher on the roster with a sub-four ERA. Kelly, meanwhile, is in the midst of his best year in thus far, with a 2.87 ERA and 7.5 K/9 over 21 starts. He would most likely slot into the one or two-spot in the starting rotation and provide the offense with a significant increase in reliability.

Kelly is under contract thru the 2024 season with a club option for 2025, but his $8M AAV would be significantly cheaper than what Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale are getting paid.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – JULY 26: Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks reacts to a strike three call during the sixth inning of the MLB game against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field on July 26, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants 7-3. (Photo by Kelsey Grant/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – JULY 26: Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks reacts to a strike three call during the sixth inning of the MLB game against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field on July 26, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants 7-3. (Photo by Kelsey Grant/Getty Images) /

Christian Walker makes sense as a Red Sox trade target

Speaking of Diamondbacks, how about Christian Walker?

Walker is an extremely under-appreciated player who many buying teams seem to be overlooking despite the Diamondbacks reportedly being open to trading.

Strictly a power hitter, Walker already has 23 home runs and 2.8 WAR on the season. His home-run rate has more than doubled, while his strikeout rate is down more than 4% from last season, and he’s drawing walks at a 4% increase over his 2021 rate. Walker’s numbers are reminiscent of a player the Red Sox acquired at last year’s deadline, and Kyle Schwarber most certainly proved to be an impact player down the stretch.

And unlike Schwarber, who learned how to play first base on the fly last summer, Walker is actually a first baseman!

While Walker is 31 years old and in his eighth big-league season, he’s accrued service time very slowly; he’s only played 60+ games three times, so he’s still an arbitration-eligible player and won’t hit free agency until 2025. The Sox might be interested in acquiring him and flipping him next year when Triston Casas is ready for his debut.

Jul 8, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Chicago Cubs left fielder Ian Happ (8) sits in the dugout before the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 8, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Chicago Cubs left fielder Ian Happ (8) sits in the dugout before the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /

Would the Red Sox make a bid for Ian Happ?

Ian Happ feels unlikely now that the Sox have made several trades, but since they’ve bought as well as sold already, fans can dream.

Since the Sox are desperate for outfield and first base upgrades, how about acquiring someone who can play both and hit well? Among all MLB players, Happ is above average in exit velocity, expected batting average (xBA), walk and chase rates, and sprint speed. His .347 wOBA (weighted on-base is nearly twenty points higher than last season.

The best part about Happ is his versatility; he’s a switch-hitter as well as a multi-positional defender. An argument can be made that almost every team could utilize a switch-hitting bat such as Happ, including the Red Sox. He’s currently batting .279 with 9 HR and would be a top-notch get if the Sox are serious about still trying to make the playoffs.

Jul 31, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the New York Mets at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 31, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the New York Mets at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports /

Is Pablo Lopez an impossible trade target for the Red Sox?

Adding a pitcher like Pablo Lopez could be the best long-term move of all.

He’s also a huge reach for the Sox, compared to their first trades of the week, as teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers are also interested and likely prepared to offer more than the Sox.

Lopez has been a bright spot for the Miami Marlins, already matching his career-high 21 starts with two months remaining in the regular season. After posting a 4.76 ERA over the first two seasons of his career, he has an ERA under 3.61 for the third consecutive year.

Unfortunately for the Sox, the amount of club control left on Lopez’s contract increases his already-high trade value; he won’t be a free agent until 2025. While Lopez is brimming with potential and offers both short- and long-term stability in the rotation, the Sox are also in the midst of developing several starting pitchers: Josh Winckowski, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Connor Seabold, to name a few.

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