Red Sox must be regretting decision to let Kyle Schwarber go

The Red Sox decision to let Kyle Schwarber walk in free agency is already looking like a mistake.

On Monday night, Kyle Schwarber, the current National League leader in home runs, participated in the Home Run Derby.

He faced off against Albert Pujols in the first round, resulting in a 13-13 tie. In their tiebreaker, Schwarber fell short by one and was eliminated, 20-19. On Tuesday night, he appeared in the All-Star Game for the second time in his career, as an NL reserve. As he stepped up to the plate, Boston Red Sox fans had no choice but to think of what could have been.

After being acquired from the Washington Nationals at last year’s trade deadline, Schwarber became a mainstay in the Red Sox lineup and in the clubhouse. He batted .291 with an astounding .435 on-base percentage, launched seven home runs, and hit for a .957 OPS in the 41 regular-season games.

He continued his outstanding play in the postseason, hitting .333/.500/1.333 in the division series against the Rays and launched a mammoth grand slam in the ALCS Game 3 victory over the Astros. However, most memorable was the bomb he hit off Yankees ace Gerrit Cole that propelled the Sox to a 6-2 victory in the Wild Card game.

Schwarber’s patient approach at the plate seemed to rub off on the rest of the Sox lineup. One of the staples of Boston’s past championship runs, particularly during the Francona era, was their patient approach at the plate. The Red Sox routinely were one of the top teams in the Major Leagues in pitches per at bat. Driving up the starting pitcher’s pitch count, getting them out of the game, and getting into the bullpen early.

However, when Alex Cora took over as manager of the ballclub in 2018, he believed the team had gotten too cautious at the plate letting many good pitches go by for strikes. He began preaching a more aggressive approach at the plate that initially paid immediate dividends with the team leading MLB with 856 runs scored in 2018.

However, by 2021 the pendulum had swung too far in the other direction. The Sox went from a team that was perhaps too cautious at the plate in 2017, to one that swung at just about anything. By August 19th of that year,2021,  the Red Sox had a 31% chase rate at pitches outside of the zone.

When it was time for Cora to set his starting lineup for the Wild Card game vs the Yankees, he decided to shake things up. He moved Kiké Hernández out of the leadoff spot where he’d hit almost all season and replaced him with their on-base machine, Schwarber. The move set the tone for the Sox’ postseason run in which they collectively took a more patient approach at the plate. Cora seemed to agree that it was Schwarber who was responsible for this turnaround:

"“We were very aggressive the whole season. We were expanding. We didn’t walk too much. And when he got here, and when he started playing, it was different. It’s a different at-bat, and other guys have followed his lead.”"

He also did the impossible; he won over Red Sox Nation. Whereas other high-profile players such as Carl Crawford and Pablo Sandoval cracked under the pressure of playing in Boston, Schwarber thrived under it. Not only did he impress them with his outstanding play, but he won them over with his work ethic and personality.

To many Boston fans he reminded them of one of them, earning him the nickname of Kyle from Waltham from Jared Carrabis, then of Barstool Sports, that would quickly catch on and become such a phenomenon that Schwarber was named an honorary citizen of the city of Waltham by their city council. The moment that best illustrates the love the city of Boston had for Kyle Schwarber came during Game 3 of the ALDS when he pumped his fist and tipped his hat to the Fenway crowd following a routine out at first base after he had overthrown pitcher Nathan Eovaldi on a similar play earlier in the ball game.

Given all the above, re-signing Schwarber during the offseason felt like a perfect fit. They had a hole in their outfield following the trade of Hunter Renfroe to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr, and while rookie first basemen Bobby Dalbec had certainly put on a show the final two months of the season, the pathetic display he had put up at the plate during the first four months of the season could not be ignored. Not to mention, JD Martinez was one year closer to free agency.

The logical move seemed to be to re-sign Schwarber to play left field, as well as serve as an insurance policy at first if Dalbec struggled again, and move Alex Verdugo back to right. Then, when Martinez would leave in free agency, move Schwarber to the DH spot.

Unfortunately, this is not what happened. The Philadelphia Phillies inked Schwarber to a four-year deal, instead, and his former team is worse off as a result. While Schwarber leads NL batters with 29 home runs, the Red Sox offense has been spotty at best for most of the season. The areas where they have seen the least amount of production have been, unsurprisingly, at first base and right field. The Red Sox rank last in the American League in OPS out of right-field and last in all of MLB in OPS from first base. At least part of that issue wouldn’t exist if Schwarber remained with the team.

The agreement between the players association and the owners to adopt the universal DH as part of the new CBA certainly didn’t help Boston’s chances of bringing him back. As some had predicted when it was announced, it gave Schwarber twice as many options and suitors, almost certainly driving up his price. Nonetheless, with the struggles the Sox have seen and with the future of the lineup uncertain, one can not help but think that the Sox would have been better off bringing him back.