Four possible Boston Red Sox trade deadline targets
MLB Trade Rumors is an excellent site for information, gossip, and rumors which is what its title implies. The latest that caught my attention is Top 50 Trade Candidates, on which the Boston Red Sox had none. There is no doubt the sudden surge into playoff relevancy made that possible and there are names on the list that could contribute to the Sox making a playoff run.
Luis Castillo of the Cincinnati Reds jumps out immediately as a quality piece for a disintegrating rotation. The Red Sox starting pitching has a curse that usually points to a stay on the injured list. Brayan Bello and Connor Seabold filled in recently with ‘meh” results. An experienced arm is needed.
Castillo is pitching to a 3.09 ERA/3.23 FIP, a 24.7 K%, and an 8.2 BB%. His heater is now in the upper 90s and is back to health after a shoulder injury killed his first month. The 29-year-old righty is being paid $7.35 MM and is arbitration-eligible through the 2023 season.
The Reds are constantly trimming payroll, and Castillo looms as a substantial hit in arbitration, so what do you offer? Nick Krall, the Reds GM, will not be looking for a trade that will negate any payroll reduction, so prospects will be the calling card if Chaim Bloom wishes to deal. Just what prospects?
Looking at it from the Reds side, I’d want two top ten prospects and possibly a lower 10-20 prospect as a negotiation start. One may have to be a pitcher to balance the trade, and that could be Josh Winckowski to toss out an example. The Reds could be tempted to take a flyer on Bobby Dalbec, but I’d expect a prospect pitcher and position player to be in the trade blender.
The Cubs may be willing to trade righty David Robertson, and Boston could use the 37-year-old in multiple bullpen roles. Robertson has a 31.9 K% that is a bit mitigated by a 12.1 BB% but has a 2.10 ERA/3.37 FIP. Robertson now appears to have recovered from arm miseries, including Tommy John Surgery.
The cost factor is low since the Cubs took a chance on Robertson at $3.5 MM plus possible $750 K incentives. Robertson is a pure rental since he will be a free agent after the season. Based on pitching being at a premium, I would look at the mid-range prospect pool from a GM perspective and hope this is not Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell.
Trades within the division happen, and one name on the list would solve the Red Sox ills at first base. Would the Orioles deal right-hand hitter Trey Mancini?
Mancini had a monster year in 2019 that included 35 home runs with a slash of .291/.364/.535, and then cancer made the 2020 season a washout for the 30-year-old. This season, Mancini is hitting .288 with eight home runs and 34 RBI. At Fenway Park, Mancini is a career .338 hitter.
After the season, Mancini is a free agent and is currently being paid $7.5 MM. There is a mutual option for $10 MM, but that is unlikely. This is similar to the deal last season that brought Kyle Schwarber to Boston for Aldo Ramirez, so that could be a similar prospect?
Can righty Daniel Bard finally return home to Boston? Bard was the closer of the future until it all fell apart, but resiliency brought Bard back to MLB, and the “yips” that plagued him were gone.
This season the 37-year-old is throwing the best heat of his career with a 98.3 MPH fastball. Bard has 16 saves for the Rockies, but that 12.1 BB% shows walks can still be an issue. For Boston, Bard could provide closer or bridge duty for the remaining $4.4 MM on his contract. Bard will be a free agent at season’s end.
What do you give? Again this is pitching, and you end up overpaying. In this case, it would be similar to Robertson and a mid-range prospect since the Rockies are rebuilding in a tough division.