Re-Grading every Red Sox offseason move two months in
What grade do the Red Sox offseason acquisitions deserve?
It was quite the interesting offseason for the Boston Red Sox. After coming oh-so-close to the World Series in 2021, the Red Sox lost key pieces in Kyle Schwarber and Eduardo Rodriguez. At first, the team only went after low-risk veterans on short-term deals, subjecting themselves to criticism from the fans, That all changed in late March, as the Sox inked superstar shortstop Trevor Story to a six-year, $140 million deal.
Two months into the season, I thought it would be a worthwhile exercise to hand out grades for the Red Sox offseason signings. Yes, I know it’s early, but considering many of these players are on one or two-year deals, they may have already completed a significant portion of their time with the Red Sox.
A couple more notes before we hop into the article. First, I chose to leave James Paxton off the list, an obvious decision considering he hasn’t pitched an inning in 2022. Second, I only focused on players who came over from other teams, so you won’t find Hansel “The Franchise” Robles on this list.
Red Sox sign Michael Wacha to a 1-year, $7 million deal
Michael Wacha came to the Red Sox on a one-year, $7 million deal, and all he’s done this season has been the team’s most consistent starter. He leads the staff with a 2.43 ERA, a total that would rank 7th in the AL if he had enough innings to qualify. He’s also allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts, a remarkable achievement for a player who was brought in as an afterthought.
The surface level numbers point to an easy A grade, but the underlying numbers point to serious trouble. His 6.0 K/9 is easily a career low, and his 3.1 BB/9 is his highest total since 2018. His success is largely on the back of an abnormally low .198 BABIP. Nothing about his rate stats point to even an average pitcher, most notably his whiff rate (9th percentile) and his chase rate (21st percentile). His fastball and curveball spin rate are also dismal, making his low K rate entirely believable.
Overall, though, a pitcher’s job is to prevent runs, and Wacha has been in one of the best in baseball in that category. Trouble may be on the horizon, but it’s hard to qualify Wacha’s contract thus far as anything other than a rousing success.
Grade: B+
Red Sox sign Rich Hill to a 1-year, $5 million deal
My issue with the Rich Hill signing isn’t really about his performance. Expecting anything more than mediocrity from a 42 year-old with such a measly pitch repertoire. Hill has thrown a lot of strikes, allowed a lot of hard contact, and has an ERA slightly worse than league average, which is exactly what he’s done for most of his career.
Yet that’s the problem with the signing. The Red Sox expected him to be better than mediocre: They expected him to be a major league caliber starter, and have placed the lefty in the rotation all season. No team with championship aspirations should be depending on a pitcher who is in the 8th percentile in whiff percentage and 12th percentile in expected batting average to start 20% of their teams game, but that’s exactly what the Red Sox are doing.
Because the contract is only for one year and five million dollars, I can’t give the Red Sox too low a grade for the signing, especially when his rate stats are pretty close to his last few seasons. Just because his contract is palatable, however, doesn’t mean his performance is.
Grade: C-
Red Sox sign Jake Diekman to a 2-year, $7 million deal
In an up-and-down Red Sox season, Jake Diekman has embodied that inconsistency. On some nights, like his opening weekend domination of the Yankees, he simply overwhelms hitters with his fastball/slider combinations. On other nights, his poor control leads to crowded bases, and his gopher ball tendencies allow those runners to score in bunches.
The overall product, however, is pretty much in line with who Diekman has been throughout his career. His career ERA is 3.72. His ERA this season is 3.50. His career H/9 is 7.3. His H/9 this season in 7.5. His career K/9 in 12.5. His K/9 this year is 13.5. We are not learning anything new about Diekman this year: He is the same talented but flawed pitcher who he has always been.
There are certain parts of Diekman’s game, however, that hint at something more in the tank. The advanced metrics are very impressive, including ranking 93rd in the league in whiff% and 82nd in xBA. His slider is one of the best in the game, holding batters to a .100 batting average, .200 slugging percentage, and a 40.6 whiff rate. He’s effective against opposite side hitters, as righties slug just .280 and have an OPS of just .601 against.
Diekman’s control issues will always hold him back from elite status, but the Red Sox were able to get one of their best relievers for just $7 million over two years. That’s a win in my book.
Grade: B
Red Sox sign Matt Strahm to a 1-year, $3 million deal
Matt Strahm’s arrival in Boston came largely in the shadow of fellow lefty Jake Diekman. He didn’t possess overpowering stuff, didn’t have any closer experience, and had pitched just 27 innings over the past two seasons due to leg injuries. Forget being an impact reliever: Strahm was just looking for a roster spot.
Yet while the aforementioned Diekman has been maddeningly inconsistent, Strahm has become arguably the Red Sox best reliever. His control is unmatched by any other arm in the bullpen, evident by his terrific 1.8 BB/9 rate, and he still has struck out over a batter an inning. His ability to get both righties and lefties out, holding both to a below average OPS, has allowed manager Alex Cora to use him in any situation.
The even better news for Strahm is that his success looks sustainable. He somehow added over a mile per hour on his fastball, which has allowed him to hold batters to a .133 BA and .200 SLG on the pitch. Opponents haven’t fared any better against his slider, batting just .200 and slugging just .267. There also isn’t anything lucky about his performance, as his advanced metrics rate near the top of the leaderboard in just about every category. If it wasn’t for a blowup in his last appearance against the Orioles, Strahm would be in serious consideration for an All-Star appearance.
To get your premier reliever in free agency is a win. To get your premier reliever in free agency for $3 million is a grand slam. Signing Strahm was unquestionably Bloom’s best offseason acquisition thus far.
Red Sox trade for Jackie Bradley Jr.
Of all the Red Sox moves this offseason, this was by far the most shocking. Just hours before the lockout, the Red Sox sent right fielder Hunter Renfroe, who was coming off a 31 home run season, for old friend Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects, Alex Binelas and David Hamilton. The move represented a clear downgrade on offense, and left many fans questioning what general manager Chaim Bloom was thinking.
Two months in, however, this looks like the rare move that could work out for both sides. Hunter Renfroe has given the Brewers some much needed offense, homering 9 times and posting a 124 OPS+, before landing on the IL with a hamstring issue. Bradley Jr., meanwhile, has provided his usually excellent defense and has been red-hot as off late (.290/.325/.461 since May 3).
What can really swing this deal in the Red Sox favor is the success of the acquired prospects. Binelas has already homered 10 times down in Greenville and walked at a 19.8% clip. Hamilton only has four home runs but is a remarkable 20-for-23 in stolen bases thus far. It should be noted, however, that both players are old for their league, and neither project to be more than a role player in the big leagues.
Still, each of the three players acquired in the deal has exceeded expectations, which is a rare occurrence in a trade. The Red Sox could have used Hunter Renfroe’s power, but the players they got back so far are fairing just fine.
Grade A-
Red Sox sign Trevor Story to a 6-year, $140 million deal
O.K, let’s do this. How can you possibly rate Trevor Story’s season thus far? It’s been such a wild ride, from games where he looks like he can’t hit a major league fastball to games where he looks like the second coming of Babe Ruth. Just look at these splits:
April 7-May 8: .194/.276/.269 0 HR 10 RBI 105 PA 33.% K rate 8.5% walk rate
May 10- May 26: .293/.368/.776 9 HR 27 RBI 26% K rate 11.7% walk rate
May 27-June 1: .150/.320/.250 0 HR 0 RBI 32% K rate 20% walk rate
There’s a lot of good and a lot of bad to unpack with Story. On one hand, he’s hitting the ball as well as ever, currently posting a career high 14.5% barrel percentage and 22.2 degree launch angle. He’s well above average in both average exit velocity and expected slugging, and is seventh in baseball in RBIs. He’s also a perfect 6-for-6 in stolen bases, and ranks in the 89th percentile in outs above average.
The bad, however, has been really bad. He’s currently fourth in the majors in strikeouts, a result of his inability (.181 BA) to catch up to fastball. He’s also had a number of costly errors in the field, many of the throwing variety. Story has always had strikeout and error issues, but they are becoming a major problem this year.
At the end of the day, it’s a pretty silly experiment to rate Story’s contract at this point. I mean, we’re less than 1/18 of the way through. But of all the big contracts signed last offseason, Story’s numbers are by the far the best, giving him an easy passing grade in this exercise.
Grade: B
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