Boston Red Sox Prospects: Who should be “untouchable” in trades?

Which Red Sox prospects should be “untouchable” in trades this year?

The Boston Red Sox are in a really weird spot right now. They got off to an absolutely miserable start to the season. However, they’ve now won four straight series and there is more than enough talent on their roster for them to still make the playoffs.

So what happens when they get to the trade deadline is a pretty big question. Will they decide that they’re too far out of contention and sell off some big pieces at the end of their contracts (I don’t want this to happen but with the way J.D. Martinez is hitting, imagine the return they could get for him)? Or will they feel like they can make a run and sell off some prospects to get veteran help down the stretch?

That second question is where I come in. Because if you’ve been around long enough, you know that I get attached to prospects. The thing I love the most about baseball is that “homegrown talent”. Drafting someone and building them up through the minors, then they reward you with a great career. Nothing’s more romantic in baseball than those lifers. The dude that spent his whole career with one team. It’s just a special connection. Dustin Pedroia is the most recent to do it for Boston.

So when the Red Sox trade off prospects that I’ve been watching grow in the minors for a few years, it always stings a bit. And I’m here to give a list of prospects that it would be devastating to see go this year.

There will be some rules. Because if not, I’d be here forever just listing every single player in the system (I have a problem, leave me alone).

They have to be in MLB Pipeline’s Top-30 for Boston. Yes there are players I think it would be stupid to move that aren’t on that list. So I needed to create a cut-off.

It also needs to be said that this doesn’t mean I think the other prospects aren’t good. This isn’t just a “who I don’t want to see traded” list. It’s a list of players I think should actually be untouchable. So if there’s no clear path for them, sure it would make sense that they’re available in trade talks.

You have to be realistic. If Boston is making trades, a lot of people will be available. Matthew Lugo is having an insane season at age 20 and I’d love to see what he could do. But as a shortstop, he’s blocked by a few people (most notably Marcelo Mayer). That makes him more expendable as he doesn’t have a clear path to the Majors.

These are also in order of where they are ranked in the Red Sox system. Not in any sort of “more or less untouchable” rankings. You guys would’ve figured that out yourselves but better safe than sorry.

Red Sox top-ranked prospect, Marcelo Mayer (shortstop)

This one doesn’t need explaining. If the Red Sox are trading Marcelo Mayer I’m expecting it to be in a package for someone like Juan Soto.

Mayer was their first-round pick in 2021 and considered the best prospect in that class. He’s already dominating in Low-A and has all the tools to be a well-rounded superstar.

In 17 games this season, the left-handed hitter is slashing .333/.386/.507 with 10 doubles and one home run. He’s driven in 13 runs and scored nine more, stealing four bases.

Mayer is seen as the shortstop of the future for the Red Sox. He’s already their top-ranked prospect and number 10 overall in the entire MLB. The 19-year-old has plus-plus hitting with plus-power. Great defensive potential and solid speed as well.

The contract situation with Xander Bogaerts makes it even harder for Boston to move Mayer. If they end up losing him, it would be pretty devastating. But having an elite prospect only a few years away would definitely soften that blow quite a bit.

And even if Bogaerts sticks around, Mayer likely won’t be in the Majors until 2024 at the earliest. At that time, Bogey will be on the other end of 30. He’s already seen as not the best defensive shortstop. That could be the time for them to move him somewhere else, or just have him as a full-time DH.

There will be a place for Mayer. He’s that good. Especially considering we’re still a few years away from his Major League debut and a lot could change on the Major League roster by then. This is the type of prospect you make room for.

Trading him away just seems like a bad move. You got insanely lucky when he fell to you in the draft. Why give it all away?

To be honest, this is one of the few that I think I’ll have no push-back on. It’s hard to see anyone really disagreeing with me on this point.

Red Sox second-ranked prospect, Triston Casas (first base)

Shutout to Franchy Cordero. He’s been awesome at first base. Before he started doing his thing though, Triston Casas would’ve absolutely been an upgrade at the position in every single aspect of the game.

He’s Major League ready. Maybe Cordero’s breakout (we’ll see if he can keep it up) makes it not nearly as much of an absolute need to call-up Casas soon. For a while it felt like the “let’s just get to Casas and go from there” thought process was the only thing keeping Boston fans going.

However, the team is finally starting to play well. And with solid play at first, that thought has been put on the back-burner a bit.

Even with that though, Casas is built for Boston. He’s their second-ranked prospect and the 14th-ranked prospect in all of baseball. He has that beautiful left-handed choked-up swing that is perfect for Fenway. Go oppo and pepper the Green Monster? Sure. Mash one to left and deposit it in the bullpens? Absolutely.

Casas has looked phenomenal defensively at first base. He has a great eye at the plate and he’s going to hit for a good average with great power. 30-plus home run type power. 100-plus RBI type hitter. The perfect middle-of-the-order bat for your team for 15 years.

And there’s already a good idea of the player he is. Casas is knocking on the Major League door in Triple-A, where’s he’s played well. The average isn’t great but he has a fantastic OBP and is putting up good power numbers. He also played extremely well in the Olympics. So we already know the stage isn’t going to be too bright and that he’ll produce at high levels against legitimate competition.

There are very very few players that Boston could get in return that wouldn’t make it impossible for fans to watch Casas raking on another team.

Red Sox third-ranked prospect, Nick Yorke (second base)

Nick Yorke was the Red Sox first-round pick back in 2020 and boy was it a wild one. A lot of fans immediately started questioning the move. 17th overall was far too early for Yorke, who might not have even been a first-round pick.

Boston knew who they wanted though, and weren’t going to risk him not being there by the time they made their next selection.

How did Yorke repay them? By raking immediately. 2021 started off slow for about a month in Low-A. After that though, the right-handed hitter became one of their most consistently elite hitters for the rest of the year. He finished 2021 with a .325/.412/.516 slash line, smashing 20 doubles, five triples, and 14 home runs. Even more impressive, the second baseman had 62 RBI and 76 runs scored. Throw in his 13 steals and that’s crazy run production in just 97 games.

Now 20 for all of 2022, Yorke hasn’t had the same success in High-A. He holds a .245/.319/.361 slash line with five doubles and four home runs. It’s not nearly as bad as it looks though. Yorke has been making good contact, with plenty of loud outs. One of those situations where you feel like at some point, the ball has to stop finding gloves. The other day he took literally the first pitch of the game 400 feet deep to straightaway center. But it was caught right at the wall.

Yorke isn’t really having strikeout issues, and he walks a decent amount. So the start to 2022 is no cause for concern.

What Boston has in the California product is an insanely professional hitter. Solid defense with decent speed. But that bat could be something special. At such a young age with little experience, he tends to look like a veteran at the plate. There’s something special there. And this could be the beginning of Chaim Bloom’s “look at the prospects I can find” promotional tour. The Red Sox shouldn’t give Yorke up unless they are getting some wild return.

Red Sox fourth-ranked prospect, Brayan Bello (starting pitcher)

I’m going to be honest, this one probably needs even less explanation than the Marcelo Mayer part. When’s the last time the Boston Red Sox had an elite pitching prospect that worked out? Or even just an elite pitching prospect in general? Jon Lester?

Lester is now retired. He hasn’t pitched for the Red Sox since 2014. And he was initially called up in 2006. So it’s been a long time.

Brayan Bello is that guy. He has overpowering stuff. An electric fastball with tons of movement, a devastating slider, and a changeup that absolutely disappears. And anyone that’s ever read something I’ve written on a pitcher knows I love a good changeup.

Bello was on a warpath in Double-A to start the year. That warpath included throwing a no-hitter. He’s already been called-up to Triple-A and made two starts there. The righty has given up two runs in six innings in each of his starts. Oh, and he’s struck out 10 batters both outings too.

In 45 2/3 innings this season Bello has a 1.97 ERA, .155 BAA, 0.90 WHIP and a stupid 62 strikeouts. At both Double-A and Triple-A hitters have look absolutely overmatched all year long.

It’s hard to come by pitchers with this nasty of stuff, especially when it comes to starters. Boston is in desperate need of some pitching for their long-term plans. Bello needs to stick around. This is the type of guy you could have at the top of your rotation for years and years. He just turned 23 on May, 17 too. So there’s a long and eye-watering bright future ahead of him.

If Boston decides to trade Bello, I can guarantee fans will be questioning the move within the next year as they see him looking great in the Majors for another team by the start of the 2023 season.

Red Sox sixth-ranked prospect, Blaze Jordan (third base)

Blaze Jordan might be one of the more controversial players on this list. I could see a lot of people being fine with him being traded for the right price. Especially considering Rafael Devers is at third and Casas could be the first baseman.

Hear me out though.

Jordan is just 19. The right-handed hitter looked good last year. After an incredibly slow start to this season, he’s raked in Low-A. Jordan’s slashing .256/.304/.391 with 12 doubles and three homers this year. He’s driven in 21 runs, scored 24 more, and stolen one base. He entered May hitting .162 with four extra-base hits.

Jordan needed a bit to adjust, but that bat is ridiculous. He’s cut back dramatically on the strikeouts, is showing that power, and has a .330 average in May.

There’s no such thing as “too much offense” and Jordan’s offensive potential is off the charts. That power has been on everyone’s radar since well before he was even in the Boston system. Back when he was hitting 5,000-foot missiles in high school.

Jordan is also still a few years away from the Majors. Obviously the plan should be to re-sign Devers. If that doesn’t happen though, there’s and clear door for Jordan. And don’t forget about designated hitter. Jordan gives you the flexibility to run Devers and Casas at DH in a rotation with him. Sure, he’s the worst defender of the three but he’s not a major liability so he can play the corners without killing you.

And look at the rest of their young guys. Devers is a lefty, Mayer is a lefty, Casas is a lefty. Yorke is the only other right-handed bat. Bring Jordan into that fold and you have a devastating core that no team can match up with properly.

If a team wants Jordan in a trade for a monster piece, sure give it some consideration. This is legitimate 40-plus home run potential though. You don’t just give that away without some serious return.

Red Sox seventh-ranked prospect, Bryan Mata (starting pitcher)

This is another one that I might have a slightly tough time convincing people. Bryan Mata hasn’t pitched since 2019. First, COVID cancelled the 2020 MiLB season. Then right before the 2021 season started, the right-handed pitcher suffered an injury that forced him to get Tommy John surgery.

There’s a reason I’ve dubbed him “El Idolo” though. And it’s not just because Andrade was putting on banger matches in NXT every other week when I gave it to Mata.

Mata was usually one of the youngest people in his league every year. That didn’t stop him from dominating the competition though. He’s pitched in 69 career games. Mata has a 3.40 ERA, .242 BAA, 1.35 WHIP, and 307 strikeouts over 315 innings in that time.

He finished 2019 in Double-A and probably would’ve been to the Majors by now had he not gotten injured.

Let’s look at his last start. It featured El Idolo tossing a career-high seven innings. In that game he allowed zero runs on just one hit and five walks, striking out a career-high nine batters.

Mata has all the tools to be an absolute ace. He was the Red Sox top-rated pitching prospect for a while before the injury knocked him down.

This was one of the easier ones for me, despite saying it might be a little controversial. First of all, Mata is still just 23 (and he just turned 23 on May 3). Second, he’s still that ace-in-waiting. He was too good to not be seen as a great prospect arm despite the injury. And finally, his value is lowered. Having not played since 2019, I don’t think teams will be offering up big time talent and saying “yeah we’ll just take Mata in return”. He’ll be an extra-sweetener piece and that’s just wrong.

Boston will not be getting the proper return for the pitcher. So just don’t move him. And in a year-or-two when he’s a steady part of your rotation, you’ll be ecstatic that you kept on to such an absurdly talented pitcher.

Red Sox 27th-ranked prospect, Ceddanne Rafaela (wherever)

Okay if you didn’t see this one coming you haven’t been paying attention to my Twitter for the last 14 months. Ceddanne Rafaela is an elite prospect. There aren’t 100 prospects better than him in baseball. I will stand by these statements until someone can prove me wrong.

What arguments could I possibly make for the 27th-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system? A system that has its fourth-ranked prospect (Bello) being its last in the Top-100 (sitting at 84)?

Well let’s see. Rafaela is 21 and playing in High-A right now. Doing so, he’s building off a breakout campaign in 2021 in Low-A. That year saw him really start to find his swing and pop as the season went on. He finished with a solid .251/.305/.424 slash line with 20 doubles, nine triple, and 10 home runs. The right-handed hitter had 53 runs batted in, 73 more runs scored, and 23 steals.

Oh, and he played elite (seriously we’re talking Gold Glove) defense at shortstop, third base, second base, and in the outfield.

Now this season, he’s doing the same thing on defense. Rafaela looks incredibly smooth in the field, like he’s gliding to the ball. Amazing instincts in the outfield and an elite arm as well. Tracks the ball well, reads it off the bat, and has fantastic speed to get to nearly anything, it’s all there.

On the offensive side of things, I guess you could say it’s going well. He was named the MiLB hitter of the month in April. And he’s hitting even better in May.

Overall this season, Rafaela has a .316/.357/.573 slash line with 13 doubles, two triples, and nine home runs. He’s driven in 30 runs and scored 35 more, to go along with 11 steals.

How good are those numbers? Well in the South Atlantic League he’s fifth in batting average, third in doubles, eighth in triples, sixth in homers, sixth in RBI, first in runs scored, eighth in steals, and fifth in slugging percentage. That’s absurd.

Rafaela is not high up in the pecking order either. So he’s definitely not a main trade piece. It would hurt my soul if they traded him. I promise the Red Sox would be regretting it a few years down the line.

Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela is more than just the best name in baseball. The Boston Red Sox selling low on him just as he’s starting to prove his potential would be a travesty. I said last season that Boston fans would be drooling over Rafaela sometime down the road. Let me change that. The entire baseball world will be drooling over the Curacao native in the not-too-distant future.