5 adjustments Red Sox can make to improve their roster

Red Sox should DFA Matt Barnes

Matt Barnes had been a valuable member of a lot of good Red Sox teams. He was their first-round pick in 2011, and in his nine seasons with the club, has accumulated over 400 innings, played a key part in the 2018 World Series run, and was even an All-Star closer just last year.

At a certain point, however, you need to face the facts. And the fact is that Barnes has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since August of last year. In the 23 1/3 innings he’s pitched since August 4, he’s walked 16 batters and allowed 22 runs. He’s been so bad that he was removed from the Red Sox playoff roster last year and has been demoted to mop-up duty this season.

Beyond the raw numbers, Barnes just looks like a pitcher who is past his prime. His fastball has lost a mile and a half since last year and two and a half miles since 2019. His curveball has lost three miles per hour since 2018 and lost well over 100 RPMs just in the last year. At 31, it’s hard to see Barnes getting any semblance of his old stuff back.

The only thing holding the Red Sox back from cutting Barnes is money. Barnes signed a ill-advised contract extension last summer, and DFA’ing him would cost the Red Sox about $18 million over the next two years. Yet even that dead cash is a better alternative than keeping one of the worst pitchers in baseball on your roster for pedigree and money alone. If the Red Sox want to put the best team possible on the field, they would get rid of Matt Barnes.

Red Sox should rely on Matt Strahm and John Schreiber

The Red Sox went into the season expecting the back of their bullpen to consist of Jake Diekman, Hansel Robles, Ryan Braiser and Matt Barnes. To put it lightly, that has not worked out. Diekman has struggled with his command, Robles has a career-low strikeout rate, Braiser was so bad that he was just demoted to Worcester, and Barnes has somehow been even worse. The result has been a bullpen that leads the league in blown saves.

With so many of the big name relievers struggling, Alex Cora has begun to turn to some under-the-radar arms. Nobody paid much attention when the Red Sox brought in Matt Strahm from the Padres this winter, but he has been one of the best relievers in baseball, both in terms of conventional metrics (1.88 ERA) and advanced (98th percentile in XBA, XERA, and XSLG).

John Schreiber, meanwhile,  began the year in Triple-A as a 28 year-old journeyman, and was only called up when Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford were ineligible for the Toronto series. All he’s done since then is pitch 8 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out seven and walking none. Hitters have had a ton of trouble making contact off his funky sidearm release, and when they do, it’s usually on the ground (54.5 ground ball rate).

Managing the bullpen is all about riding the hot hand, and few in baseball are hotter than Schrieber and Strahm. Cora should make these two his highest leverage-relievers until they give him reason to do otherwise.

Red Sox should reshuffle the pitching staff

The Red Sox pitching staff features three starters who are more than just a conventional one-inning reliever, but can’t handle a conventional starter’s workout. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill has been relatively effective in four-to-five inning starts, while promising righties Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have bounced between the rotation and long relief roles. Yet there is a strong argument to be made that all three are not in the role where they can be the most effective.

Let’s start with Hill. The ageless wonder was pitching well before his blowup on Thursday, allowing just two runs over his previous nineteen innings. Yet his 6.9 K/9 is a career low, and many of his batted ball metrics are below average. Good teams and good right-handed hitters just aren’t fooled by his high-80s fastball and lollipop curveball, especially when they face him two or three times. What Hill is still good at is getting lefties out, holding them to a .174/.208/.264 compared to a .277/.333/.436 line against righties. Paired with an ability to throw strikes, Hill should be used in a long reliever role  and in key situations against lefties.

Whitlock is about as different a pitcher as you can get from Hill, but he also is used in the wrong role. What’s interesting about Whitlock is that he began the season where he should be- in the bullpen- but was thrust into the rotation when Houck’s vaccination status reshuffled the pitching staff. Whitlock has still been effective as a starter, but not nearly as good as when he pitches out of the ‘pen  (3.15 ERA to 0.90). There’s no denying that a good starter is more valuable than a good reliever, but given the strengths and weaknesses of the Red Sox pitching staff and Whitlock’s success out of the bullpen, it makes far more sense for him to return to his old role.

While Hill and Whitlock have had more defined roles this season, Houck has been all over the place, starting and relieving in four games each. His 4.70 ERA speaks to his inconsistency: 13 of his runs have come in 8 1/3 innings over three appearances, while he has allowed just three runs over his other 22 1/3 innings. His up-and-down performance could be a result of his constant switching between the rotation and the bullpen, preventing him from ever getting into a rhythm. Letting the 26-year-old figure things out in the rotation could help the Red Sox in the present and the future.

Red Sox should call up Josh Winckowski

So with Houck moving to the rotation and Hill and Whitlock moving to the bullpen, that levaes one open spot in my make-believe rotation. And while the Red Sox could theoretically do bullpen games and openers until Chris Sale and James Paxton return, they have a better option just sitting in Triple-A in Josh Winckowski.

Now it’s easy to say that the grass is always greener and a pitcher dominating the Triple-A level is better than the one struggling in the bigs, but as we’ve seen already this year with the Red Sox, Triple-A success can translate to the show. John Schreiber similarly tore apart the International League, and has been even better with the Red Sox.

Winkowski, who owns a 2.10 ERA over six starts in Worcester, shares many of the same traits as Schreiber. He throws a ton of strikes, as evident by his 2.1 BB/9, and generates ground balls at over a 60% clip. Those types of pitchers have an extremely high floor and can excel in a multitude of roles. There’s not much more that WInckowski needs to prove at the minor league level, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his chance in the bigs.

Red Sox should give Jarren Duran another chance

It didn’t take a genius to see that Jackie Bradley Jr. was going to struggle this year. Bradley was arguably the worst hitter in baseball last year, ranking in the first percentile in many batted ball metrics, and he’s been nearly as bad this year. The 32-year-old is slashing .200/.267/.309 with one home runs and just 14 RBIs, and while he still rates above-average defensively, it’s not nearly enough to make up for such anemic hitting.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, they have a ready-made replacement in Triple-A in the form of Jarren Duran. The 25-year-old Duran has been tearing apart the International League, slashing .330/.402/.540 with three home runs and 10 stolen bases. He’s also cut down significantly on his strikeouts, a major part of his downfall during his 2021 call-up. Duran has played just one game at the Major League level this season but made an immediate impact, reaching base twice and hitting one of the Red Sox’s three triples on the season.

Duran’s energy and speed would provide an immediate boost to what has been a sluggish, station-to-station attack by the Red Sox this season. The Red Sox rank 27th in baseball in stolen bases, and Duran’s Triple-A total (in just 25 games) is more than the entire major league combined.

Bradley Jr. has the edge on defense, but he can’t come close to the Duran’s production on offense or on the bases. The Red Sox could still use a spark, and Duran, who proclaimed he plays with his “hair on fire”, is the perfect match.