Red Sox ace Nathan Eovaldi makes history in all the wrong ways

Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi was buried by an avalanche of homers

Nathan Eovaldi only needed five pitches to cruise through the first inning. An unrelenting Houston Astros lineup responded by obliterating the Boston Red Sox starter with five home runs in the second inning.

Yordan Alvarez led off the second with a solo shot to left field. An error by first baseman Franchy Cordero allowed the next batter to reach and the Astros made the miscue hurt by blasting back-to-back homers from Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena. Jose Siri almost made it three in a row with a deep fly to right that was mercifully caught for the first out of the inning.

The Astros weren’t done though, stringing together three consecutive hits, culminating in a three-run homer by Michael Brantley. A few batters later, Yuli Gurriel sent one into the Monster seats for a two-run blast that chased Eovaldi from the game.

Nine runs, six of which were earned, without being able to escape the second inning. The first two homers were against Eovaldi’s upper-90s four-seam fastball. The Astros blasted two more on 92 mph cutters. The knockout punch came on a curveball that didn’t dive deep enough to avoid Gurriel’s uppercut swing. Up in the zone, down low, different pitch types and speeds. Nothing was working for Eovaldi in this game.

The Astros became the eighth team in major-league history to homer five times in one inning, and the third to do so against one pitcher.

Toronto’s Chase Anderson (September 17, 2020 vs Yankees) and Milwaukee’s Michael Blazek (July 27, 2017 vs Nationals) are the only other major league pitchers to allow five homers in the same inning. Blazek actually gave up six home runs in his start, five of which came in the third inning, including four consecutive.

According to MLB.com’s Ian Browne, going back to 1974, when inning-by-inning data started, no Red Sox pitcher had given up more than three homers in an inning.

The home run barrage turned into an epic disaster for Eovaldi. Many will point to the heavy winds at Fenway pushing the ball toward the outfield walls. Conspiracy theorists will insist MLB is juicing the baseballs. However, the long ball was increasingly becoming a concern long before Eovladi served up batting practice to the Astros.

In a season where power numbers are dwindling, the home run rate is spiking for Eovaldi. He only allowed 15 home runs last season but he’s already coughed up a league-leading 14 this year. He’s never allowed more than 23 in any season, a total he’s almost certain to eclipse this year.

The results are baffling for a pitcher who has typically been stingy with allowing home runs. It’s difficult to put a finger on what has changed. His fastball velocity is the same as last season and down only about 1 mph from his career peak. Eovaldi is still striking out over a batter per inning and his 1.5 BB/9 is even better than the league-leading walk rate he produced last year.

A strong strikeout-to-walk ratio led to a 2.79 FIP, which was the best in the league and the basis for his Cy Young candidacy. Despite a slight improvement in that ratio, a staggering 3.0 HR/9 rate has inflated his FIP to 6.01 this season.

Statcast paints a concerning picture for Eovaldi. His career-high 14.2 Barrel% is double his career rate. His 90.9 mph average exit velocity is slightly higher than his previous career-high from 2019, the only season of his career in which he ranked in the bottom five percent of the league. Eovaldi is in the 21st percentile with a 44.9 Hard Hit % that would be the worst of his career.

The approach appears to be the same. Eovaldi is throwing strikes with similar velocity and movement with his five-pitch arsenal. The difference is that those pitches in the zone are getting hammered far too frequently. That signals that he’s struggling with locating within the strike zone. He’s always been aggressive in attacking the strike zone but he’s leaving too many pitches over the middle of the plate. Maybe he’s tipping his pitches. Either way, the Astros were ready to pounce on Eovaldi and the pitcher wasn’t fooling anyone.