Analyzing the level of concern for five struggling Red Sox
Concern levels for five struggling Red Sox
It’s been an ugly start for the 2022 Boston Red Sox. They are currently sputtering along in fourth place in the AL East at 14-22, barely ahead of the lowly Orioles. An anemic offense has struggled to score runs, and the bullpen has blown the few leads they do have.
While there have certainly been some standout performers on the Red Sox, there are more than a handful of players who have not exceeded expectations. Here are five players who have gotten off to a terrible start and whether they can turn it around.
Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec
.165/.238/.253, 1 HR, 4 RBI, -0.5 WAR
It’s still early in the season, but my confidence in Bobby Dalbec is looking like my worst preseason take. Dalbec was a popular preseason pick after a tremendous finish to the 2021 season, slashing .275/.336/.580 from June 10 on. He still had a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but he was hitting with enough power to make up for it.
This season, however, that has not been the case. What’s interesting is that his plate discipline has actually improved from last season, cutting his strikeout rate from 34.4% last season to 30.9% this season and increasing his walk rate from 6.2% to 6.9%. He’s also hitting the ball in the air more frequently, increasing his average launch angle from 17.4 degrees to 24.6 degrees.
All too often, those fly balls are lazy pop-ups rather than tape-measure home runs. His exit velocity has dropped from 92.4 mph to 89.2, and his barrel percentage has been cut nearly in half from 20.2% to 10.4%. Pitchers have also thrown him more breaking balls than ever, which Dalbec’s hits just .080 against.
The biggest reason for concern is that Dalbec has let his struggles compound. Before a slight bounceback on this road trip, Dalbec was mired in a 1-for-23 slump with 12 strikeouts and had a number of lapses in the field. Baseball is all about making adjustments, and if Dalbec can’t start putting together better at-bats, he may find his diminished role cut down even further.
Red Sox second baseman Trevor Story
.196/.276/.286, 1 HR, 15 RBI, -0.4 WAR
One word comes to mind while watching Trevor Story this year: In-between. The Red Sox big-ticket acquisition had seemed like he was trying to do too much at the plate, struggling to catch up to fastballs and expanding the zone on breaking balls. The result has been an 8.0% increase in strikeout rate and a 1.3% drop in walk rate.
It stands to reason why Story has gotten off to a slow start. He was one of the last free agents to sign after the lockout, and then had his spring training debut delayed after the birth of his child. He finally got to step on the field in time for Opening Day, but couldn’t even make it through the first series before getting derailed by a stomach bug. Couple all of that with the adjustment that comes with moving to a new ballpark in a new league, and it makes sense why Story has had his struggles.
The good news is that when Story does make contact, he’s still driving the ball with authority. His exit velocity is unchanged from last season, his barrel percentage is the highest since 2018, and his sweet spot rate is the highest since 2016. The results haven’t been there yet, but it’s clear there is still a lot of thump left in his bat.
The big thing for Story is to finally get enough consistent playing time to get into a rhythm, and this past week featured some better contact and his first home run of the season. All in all, it’s far too early to seriously worry about Trevor Story.
Red Sox center fielder Kiké Hernández
.169/.248/.266, 1 HR, 18 RBI, -0.3 WAR
Despite their overall offensive struggles, the Red Sox feature one of the best middle of the orders in baseball. Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D Martinez are the only threesome in the game to each be batting over .310, but all to often they are batting with nobody on base, and the main culprit is leadoff hitter Kike Hernandez.
Like Dalbec, the problem with Hernandez is not his approach. The improved patience he exhibited last year has carried over into 2022, as his strikeout and walk rate have remained fairly constant. The issue has been when he does make contact. His average exit velocity has dropped from 90.8 miles per hour to 86.9, and his barrel percentage and hard hit percentage have also dropped significantly.
Hernandez’s struggles have been especially prominent against fastballs. Last year, Hernandez obliterated fastballs to a .282 batting average and a .492 slugging percentage, but those numbers have dropped to .158 and .211 respectively despite no change in whiff rate. Hernandez is simply not squaring pitches he used to obliterate, and there’s no real reason why.
The good news for Hernandez is that he has continued to contribute to the team with his terrific defense. He ranks above average in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, and he is again in the 100th percentile in outfielder jumps. Yet the Red Sox were counting on him to at least be a non-zero with the bat, and his struggles at the leadoff spot are a major reason why the Red Sox offense has been so bad this season.
Red Sox left fielder Alex Verdugo
.212/.254/.331, 3 HR, 15 RBI, -0.5 WAR
It’s hard to believe that Alex Verdugo is even on this list. He got off to a torrid start this season, slashing .333/.400/.667 with three homers over his first ten games. Yet over the last 21 games, Verdugo has fallen off completely, slashing just .173/.198/.210 with no home runs. His has been particularly anemic versus left-handed pitching (6-for-27, one extra-base hit).
As Verdugo’s struggles have compounded, his approach has completely fallen apart. He’s walked just three times in that span and has increased his first strike swing percentage from 19% to 29%. He still makes contact at an elite rate, but because he can’t elevate the ball (5.5 degree average launch angle), he hasn’t been able to hit for power.
The biggest reason for Verdugo’s struggles, however, is bad luck. He ranks in the 77nd in the percentile in XBA and 85th in XSLG, and his batting metrics have remained fairly constant from last year. The biggest change has been his fortune on batted balls, as his BABIP has dropped from .327 to .220. At a certain point, Verdugo’s fortune is going to change, and if he can elevate the ball like he did in the beginning of the season, he should be just fine.
Red Sox RP: Matt Barnes
0-3, 7.18 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9
For the rest of the players on this look, I took a deep dive into the numbers to see if there was some underlying reason for their struggles. This will not be the case for Matt Barnes, because it doesn’t take a math degree to figure out why he is struggling. All it takes is a working set of eyes.
The pitcher who steps on the mound in increasingly low-leverage situations for the Boston Red Sox is almost unrecognizable from the All-Star closer of 2021. His fastball has lost over a tick and a half of velocity from last year, and is getting battered to the tune of a .385 batting average and .692 slugging. His curveball has lost over two miles per hour and 200 rpms from last year and is inducing swings-and-misses at a fraction of the rate.
Any of the four previous names mentioned have hope of turning it around. Verdugo has gotten unlucky, Story is starting to pick things up, Hernandez’s approach remains solid, and Dalbec is still young.
There is no such hope for Barnes. At 31, there’s little chance he regains the sharpness on his pitches, and without a functional changeup or any movement on his fastball, it’s extremely hard to see Barnes being more than a mop-up reliever ever again.
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