Boston Red Sox Prospects: Candidates for early season promotions
Which Red Sox prospects are candidates for early season promotions?
The Boston Red Sox 2022 season might not be off to the hottest start. However, they have had a lot of success when it comes to the play of a lot of their most intriguing prospects. Now that we’re more than a month into the season, we can stop worrying about something simply being a “hot start”.
Now we can start wondering who might be a candidate for an early-season promotion. This is a tricky one though, because you don’t want to promote someone before they are ready. It’s usually better to play it safe when it comes to prospects. Struggling because they weren’t ready at a level is only going to do more harm than having them stay in a level too low for an extra few weeks.
And yes, I will sit here and complain every week when I feel like someone deserves to get promoted. I’m also an idiot though who definitely doesn’t know more than the people working in the Boston organization.
In fact, we’ve already seen a few big promotions. Elite pitching prospect Brayan Bello and underrated reliever Andrew Politi both got sent up to Triple-A from Double-A earlier this week. Who could follow them?
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the prospects in the Red Sox system that could be moving up in the world of baseball over the next few weeks.
To simplify things, we’re going to have some ground rules. Okay, one ground rule. It’s a pretty simple one – no promotions to the big leagues. We’re going to only be talking about promotions throughout the minors to other levels of the minor leagues.
The Red Sox have been really bad this season. That’s not exactly a secret. Because of that, there’s already been a ton of discussion about promoting players to the Majors.
You don’t really need to read another article talking about how Triston Casas or Ryan Fitzgerald should get a shot in Boston. Or how Zack Kelly, Josh Winckowski, and Connor Seabold could help the pitching staff.
So let’s not even worry about all that. Instead, we can focus on the prospects a little lower in the minor league levels. And see who could be getting a promotion to the next level sooner, rather than later.
Red Sox pitching prospect Brandon Walter (Double-A to Triple-A)
Brandon Walter had a rough time of it last week. In two games he combined to give up 11 earned runs over seven innings. It’s a testament to how dominant he’s been this season that his stats are still very good.
As of May 16, Walter has a 3.50 ERA, .218 BAA, and 0.94 WHIP in 36 innings. Most impressive though has been the strikeout to walk ratio. To this point, the left-handed pitcher has racked up 49 strikeouts compared to just three walks.
And his career numbers are fantastic too. In fact, the ERA and BAA would both be career-worsts if the season ended today. That’s wild, as both are very strong.
The big thing going against Walter here is experience. Last season he spent 13 games in Low-A, then 12 games in High-A. Now this year he’s made just seven starts in Double-A. So that might not be enough time for the Red Sox to feel like he’s ready for the jump to Triple-A.
That being said, Walter is already 25. He was drafted out of the University of Delaware in 2019. Then he lost a year due to the pandemic in 2020 canceling the MiLB season.
With College experience and with his age, maybe the organization doesn’t feel he needs a long time in Double-A though. A call-up to Triple-A in the near-future could set him up for a promotion to the Majors before the end of the year. Or at the very least give him a chance to make the Major League roster to start next season.
Walter struggled in his last two starts. He was so utterly dominant before that though that it feels safe to say that the trend won’t last. The University of Delaware product could be back to his nasty ways on the mound sooner, rather than later. And if he does indeed right the ship, Worcester could be picking up that phone.
Red Sox pitching prospect Chris Murphy (Double-A to Triple-A)
Chris Murphy is one of the most under-appreciated prospects in the Red Sox system. He’s definitely right near the top of that list. Okay, I talk about Murph a lot. But that doesn’t mean I feel like he’s getting the respect he deserves. One look at the numbers will prove my point.
The left-handed pitcher has appeared in seven games this season. Murphy has a 1.97 ERA, .152 BAA, and 0.97 WHIP in that time. Over 32 innings he has piled up 41 strikeouts. Most importantly, he’s really limited the home runs this season, allowing just two. That was an issue for him last year (21 in 101 1/3 innings) that he seems to have corrected.
Murphy is listed as Boston’s 10th overall prospect according to MLB. And he’s putting up those numbers in Double-A. Somehow you almost never see him get talked about though. That could be changing very soon.
Now, as for the potential promotion to Triple-A. Murphy was drafted in 2019 and made 10 appearances in Rookie ball (33 1/3 innings). 2020 was a wash, obviously. Then he started last season in High-A, tossing 68 1/3 innings there (14 appearances) before getting moved up to Double-A (and tossing 33 innings there).
He’s now thrown 32 innings in Double-A this year, meaning he has 65 innings combined there. The University of San Diego product has been breezing through the minors. No time spent in Low-A. And now he’s just 3 1/3 innings away from the amount of time he spent in High-A.
With how well he’s been pitching, Murphy is clearly showing that he’s up to the challenge. So why not move him up to Triple-A soon? Give him a chance to get acclimated now. Then next season he can be knocking on the door of the Majors, ready to get the call.
Red Sox outfield prospect Devlin Granberg (Double-A to Triple-A)
Devlin Granberg started the 2021 season in High-A. He spent 27 games there looking like he was just head-and-shoulders better than everyone else. That led to a promotion to Double-A.
This season, the right-handed hitter started in Double-A. He’s now spent 23 games there this year (and 69 last season). And once again, Granberg looks too good for the rest of the competition. To the point he has to be getting bored.
Drafted in 2018 out of College, Granberg always looked like a very solid professional hitter. 2021 saw him take a big leap though. Not only was he hitting for contact (finished the year with a .297 average) but his 17 home runs and .515 slugging percentage were both massive upgrades to his previous career-bests. Those were accompanied by new highs in RBI and runs scored as well.
2022 has seen a dip in the power. So far, he has just one home run (the six doubles and two triples are nice though). However, other than that he’s absolutely killing it. The Dallas Baptist University product is slashing .333/.465/.494. Yes, you saw that OBP correctly. He’s walked (17) a lot more than he’s struck out (10). And although he only has six RBI, he’s scored 14 runs and stolen four bases.
Granberg is simply too good for Double-A pitching. The most damning stat is those walks compared to strikeouts. He’s not having any issues at the level. And Granberg has now played more games in Double-A (92) than he did in High-A (52) and nearly as many as he did in Low-A (99). He’s clearly proven he is ready for a jump. At 26 there’s no reason for Boston to not give him a promotion to get him closer to the Majors. No need to be patient when he’s dominating like this.
Red Sox pitching prospect Frank German (Double-A to Triple-A)
Frank German came over to the Red Sox from the New York Yankees last year, just like Garrett Whitlock. While Whitlock was an immediate success, German struggled mightily. He spent the entire year in Double-A and finished with a 5.12 ERA, .285 BAA, and 1.53 WHIP over 84 1/3 innings.
However, at the end of the year he was converted to a reliever. In his last five appearances, German gave up zero runs on just one hit and one walk (compared to seven strikeouts) over five innings.
This season, the right-handed pitcher once again started the year in Double-A. Now he’s a full-blown reliever though. And the magic is still there.
In eight appearances this season, German has a 3.00 ERA, .133 BAA, and 0.67 WHIP. He’s struck out 17 batters compared to just two walks in nine innings. That’s three earned runs allowed in nine innings, and all three came in one appearances. That outing came on May 13 and it was the first time he had pitched in a game since April 26. So some rust was bound to be there.
The numbers are incredible though. He’s not walking anyone but striking them out in packs. Meanwhile, people aren’t getting hits off him. And even when they are he’s giving up weak contact. He’s only given up one extra-base hit all year.
Now, German does have a lot of Double-A experience already. However, the North Florida College product did just miss a couple weeks of action. Due to that, I wouldn’t be surprised if they decide to keep him at the level for a little longer just to ramp things back up. There’s no reason for him to stick around in Double-A for much more time if he keeps mowing down hitters the way he is though.
Politi just moved up to Triple-A, and German might not be far behind him.
Red Sox third base prospect Nicholas Northcut (High-A to Double-A)
Nicholas Northcut was drafted by the Red Sox back in 2018 out of high school with a major power tool. However, he didn’t really get going there. In 47 games in 2018 he hit just two home runs. Then in 54 games in 2019 he had just one. This cooled off some of the hype around him.
But when 2021 came around, so did the home runs. Northcut set new career-highs in every category while playing in Low-A. Seriously, the right-handed hitter’s entire .261/.352/.513 slash line were all career-bests. He had new highs in doubles (32), home runs (17), RBI (77), and runs scored (68) as well.
This led to Northcut starting 2022 in High-A. So far it’s been nothing but fireworks. Kid Cutty has a .250/.300/.661 slash line through 28 games. That insane slugging percentage is propped up by four doubles and an absurd 14 home runs. It feels like I’m sending out the obligatory “Nick Northcut hits nukes” every few minutes at this point.
Northcut already has 19 runs scored and 30 runs driven in on the year. Can we sit here for a minute and realize how ridiculous that is?
Now, he has only spent 28 games in High-A. And the five walks compared to 45 strikeouts is a bit of an issue. So they might want to keep the third baseman at the level for a little while longer. See if he can work on those numbers a bit more.
However, the biggest fear with that might be that those strikeouts with few walks will lead to a major dip in his OBP. Because if you’re striking out so much you have to rely on the ball not getting caught when you actually do put it in play.
You don’t need to worry about the ball being caught if it never lands though. And Northcut is demolishing baseballs at a terrifying rate right now. At what point do they call him up to Double-A if only to spare poor High-A pitchers from having to watch their pitches hit to the next city over?
Red Sox first base prospect Niko Kavadas (Low-A to High-A)
Low-A is tough when it comes to midseason promotions. Simply because it feels weird to guess someone is going to get promoted so early into the year.
The reason for that is a lot of these guys were just drafted, or insanely young international prospects. In the case of Kavadas, he was just drafted in 2021 (11th-round pick for the Red Sox). He played seven games in Low-A last year (eight more in Rookie ball), and has appeared in 28 games in Low-A so far this year.
On the season, the left-handed hitter has a .256/.438/.433 slash line. He’s seen as a major power hitter but the home run numbers aren’t there just yet (two in 2022). However, he does have an impressive 10 doubles to go along with 13 RBI and 13 runs scored (he’s even stolen a base but don’t expect that to be a part of his game at all).
The big thing with Kavadas has been the patience. Drafted out of college, the University of Notre Dame product looks extremely seasoned at the dish. He’s already drawn 27 walks (although the 35 strikeouts is an issue at the moment).
Kavadas is 23 though. And he’s already doing great things in Low-A. If he can boost the average a bit and cut back on the strikeouts, there’s no reason for him to stay at the level for much longer. And if the home runs start to come? Get him out of there fast.
With College experience already under his belt, a long stay in Low-A just doesn’t feel necessary. Especially when he’s proving he can handle the pitching at the level. Kavadas is someone that Boston might want to try and push through the minors decently fast. He’s a left-handed bat that should hit a ton of home runs and has a good eye. No reason to keep spinning his wheels in Low-A. Move him up to the next level and see how things go.
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