Red Sox: Trevor Story isn’t the only free agent struggling with a new team
Trevor Story hasn’t made a great first impression with the Red Sox
The Trevor Story experience hasn’t been the thrill that the Boston Red Sox anticipated when they signed him to a 6-year, $140 million deal. With the team stumbling out of the gate to land in the basement of the AL East, their prized free-agent acquisition has shouldered plenty of blame for the lineup’s underwhelming production.
Through 26 games, Story is batting .206/.281/.304, easily representing career-lows in each category. The perennial 20/20 threat only has one home run and one stolen base.
This is clearly not the production we expected from a player with Story’s track record. While many are quick to label him a bust, there is a reasonable explanation for his struggles.
Switching leagues and adjusting to a new city for the first time is a challenge for most players. The task is significantly more difficult with an abbreviated training camp. The lockout delayed the start of spring training, leaving everyone with fewer days to prepare. Since he didn’t sign with the Red Sox until after the lockout, plus he had to leave camp for the birth of his child, Story had less time to ramp up than most.
That might seem like a convenient excuse but the trend has followed other position players who joined a new team in free agency. The top six position players on MLB Trade Rumors’ list of free agents all switched teams over the offseason. Story was sixth among position players in these rankings. He’s certainly struggled to adjust with his new team, but he’s not the only one.
The Red Sox aren’t regretting passing on Marcus Semien
After settling for a one-year deal the previous offseason, Marcus Semien proved his worth during his short stint with the Toronto Blue Jays with a career year. Semien won Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, finished third on the AL MVP ballot and set a single-season record for second basemen with 45 home runs. The performance earned him a 7-year, $175 million deal from the Texas Rangers.
Semien hasn’t adapted nearly as well to switching teams this time. The veteran infielder is batting a woeful .165/.228/.217. Nobody was expecting a repeat of 45 homers but he’s still looking for his first of the season through 127 plate appearances.
His strikeout rate is in line with his career rate but the quality of the contact he’s making has severely declined. Semien’s 84.9 average exit velocity and 28.3 Hard Hit% are both career lows that put him in the bottom seven percent of the league or worse, per Baseball Savant. His 3.3 Barrel% is also the worst of his career and falls in the bottom 12 percent of the league.
Semien has never been a batting title contender but he typically offsets his modest batting average with his power and a solid walk rate. His power has abandoned him and his ability to draw free passes has dwindled to a 7.1 BB% that would be his lowest since his rookie season.
It’s far too soon to label him a bust but handing a 7-year deal to a 31-year-old was always a questionable choice. The Rangers were eager to spend to revamp their infield with high-profile stars but this is one deal they might regret if Semien doesn’t turn it around. They must have expected this contract wouldn’t age well but for it to become an albatross in Year One would be a disaster.
Kris Bryant wouldn’t give the Red Sox the power boost they expect
Kris Bryant received arguably the most surprising free-agent deal from this class. He proved to be one of last summer’s best trade deadline acquisitions, smashing seven homers and driving in 22 RBI down the stretch to help the San Francisco Giants secure the NL West. We expected that to earn him a hefty contract, we just never predicted it would come from the Colorado Rockies.
After trading away Nolan Arenado and making half-hearted efforts to re-sign Story, it appeared the Rockies were transitioning into a rebuild phase in recent years. Then they shocked the world by spending $182 million on a seven year deal for a 30-year-old Bryant despite that they still appear to be years away from contending.
Bryant enters the day hitting .281 but there hasn’t been much punch to that batting average. He still hasn’t collected his first home run despite benefiting from the thin air in Colorado and his four doubles are his only extra-base hits.
The batting average is respectable but his .338 on-base percentage would be the worst of his career if we ignore the dismal shortened 2020 season. His .351 slugging percentage would tie 2020 for the worst of his career and represents a drastic drop from his career .501 SLG. Bryant’s 4.3 Barrel%, 83.3 average exit velocity and 25.5 Hard Hit% are all steep declines.
The Red Sox have been criticized for signing Story under the assumption that his power would evaporate outside of hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, Bryant is the one with the more concerning power outage when switching from a pitcher’s park in San Francisco to the hitter’s haven in Colorado.
Freddie Freeman wasn’t a long-term need for the Red Sox
Freddie Freeman was the NL MVP in 2020 and led the Atlanta Braves to a World Series championship last year. While many assumed he would spend his entire career in Atlanta, the Braves pivoted in another direction by trading for the younger Matt Olson, sealing Freeman’s exit.
The Los Angeles Dodgers paid a hefty price to lure Freeman to the west coast but he’s given them no reason to regret the 6-year, $162 million deal.
Freeman’s production has been nearly identical to last year, hitting .310/.394/.496. He only has three home runs but Freeman is tied for fourth in the NL with 10 doubles. He’s going to drive in plenty of runs in this loaded Dodgers lineup.
Freeman’s 13.4 Barrel% and 91.5 average exit velocity are slight improvements from last year while his 43.3 Hard Hit% is close to his career rate, signaling there is no sign of his production slowing down.
If there are any star free agents from this class that the Red Sox wish they could have signed based on the early returns this season, it’s Freeman. Red Sox first basemen are dead-last in the majors with a collective .132 AVG and .190 SLG, per FanGraphs.
Would Freeman be a game-changing upgrade for the Red Sox? Absolutely. Their sputtering offense would be in a much better spot with his bat replacing Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero. Here’s the thing though – Boston isn’t planning to rely on those fringe major leaguers all season. Triston Casas is coming.
While we can’t expect the prized prospect to deliver anything close to Freeman’s production immediately, the buzz over Casas’ long-term outlook is warranted. Would it have made sense to splurge on a six-year deal for a 32-year-old knowing a top prospect at the same position is knocking on the door to his big league debut? I say no. As painful as it has been to see an enormous black hole in the lineup at the first base position, patience will pay off.
The Red Sox passed on locking up Corey Seager for a decade
The biggest contract handed to a free agent in this class went to Corey Seager, who signed a 10-year, $325 million deal with the Rangers. The two-time All-Star and former World Series MVP ditched the Dodgers to team up with Semien, creating a formidable middle infield combination in Texas.
While he isn’t struggling nearly as much as Semien, the results have been underwhelming for Seager. He’s on pace for career-lows, hitting .237/.302/.430. Seager is tied for 12th in the majors with seven home runs but he’s only driven in 15 RBI, which falls outside of the top-60.
Opening their checkbooks to sign two of the top hitters on the market hasn’t done much to improve the Rangers offense, which ranks 21st in the majors in runs scored and 26th with a .283 wOBA.
Unlike his floundering middle infield partner, Seager’s Statcast data provides a more encouraging outlook. His 10.5 Barrel% is down from last year but still above his career rate. Seager’s average exit velocity and Hard Hit% are similar to his career rates. His slugging percentage might be heading for a career low but his .604 expected slugging percentage is in the top-7% of the league.
He isn’t striking out at an alarming rate and he’s making strong contact. The real culprit behind Seager’s struggles is a .227 BABIP that is well below league average and over 100 points lower than his career rate.
This suggests that Seager has simply been unlucky and is due for positive regression.
The Red Sox added a shortstop but it wasn’t Carlos Correa
Carlos Correa could have demanded a deal that challenged Seager for the most lucrative from this class but his agent brainwashed him into taking a 3-year, $105.3 million deal with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons, allowing Scott Boras to claim his full commission rather than split a mega-deal with his previous representatives (Correa switched agents in January).
That plan might backfire based on the early results from his tenure with the Minnesota Twins. Correa is hitting .255 with a .693 OPS that would be the lowest of his career.
Adding to his woes is a bruised finger that recently landed Correa on the 10-day injured list. It’s not a major setback but any trip to the IL is a concern for a player with his lengthy injury history. Last season was the first time since 2016 that Correa has appeared in more than 110 games.
Correa is still hitting the ball hard, ranking in the top-6% of the league with a 52.9 Hard Hit% and top-8% with a 92.4 average exit velocity. His problem is with a lack of contact. Correa’s 25.2 K% would be a career-high and his 7.8 BB% is well below his career rate.
The lack of plate discipline points a player who wasn’t quite prepared for the season, which is no surprise considering the shortened training camp.
It’s the same, umm… story for Story in Boston. His Statcast data is relatively similar to his career levels but a skyrocketing strikeout rate is tanking his production. It’s going to take these players who signed late in the offseason time to find their rhythm at the plate.
All of these players have proven track records and there’s no reason to believe they will continue to struggle. That’s true for Story. If the other top free agents from this class who are struggling are expected to turn things around, there’s little reason to believe that Story won’t.
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