3 reasons why the Red Sox offense is struggling to begin the 2022 season
The Red Sox lineup has stumbled out of the gate this season
The lineup was supposed to be the strength of this team but the Boston Red Sox have been slumping at the plate to begin this season.
Though 16 games, Boston is tied for 19th in the majors with 58 runs scored. Their average of 3.6 runs per game is down significantly from last year’s 5.1 runs per game. The Red Sox also rank 19th with a collective .225 batting average and .350 slugging percentage. Most concerning is a pitiful .276 on-base percentage that sits 27th in the majors.
The offensive ineptitude was on display in the last two series against division rivals. Boston dropped two out of three at home to the Toronto Blue Jays, scoring no more than two runs in any of those games. A four-run effort to win the first game of the series in Tampa Bay was their highlight of the week. The Red Sox lost the next two games in which they managed only two runs in each. One of those losses was a heartbreaker in extra-innings in which the Red Sox failed to collect a single hit until the 10th inning.
This is far from the production we expected from a lineup loaded with star power. Sure, there are some holes near the bottom of the order but the same can be said for almost every team. Any lineup featuring Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and J.D. Martinez shouldn’t be this bad.
So, what’s wrong with Boston’s bats to open this season? As it turns out, the issue isn’t limited to the Red Sox and there are a few reasons to explain the dip in offensive production.
The Red Sox aren’t the only offense struggling
The Red Sox were third in the majors with a .261 batting average last season, which leads us to believe that something must be wrong when they are hitting a meager .225 so far this year. However, the decline is part of a league-wide trend.
Only 11 teams currently own a batting average above .240 this season, down from 18 teams a year ago. The league has seen a steeper drop in the power department with only nine teams producing a slugging percentage above .400, down from 21 teams last year.
The Blue Jays lead the majors with 22 home runs, putting them on pace for 222. That total wouldn’t have cracked the top-five last season and is well behind the pace for the league-leading 262 homers that Toronto tallied in 2021. Only 10 teams have hit 16+ home runs this year, which would be about an average of one per game for most clubs. Only three teams hit fewer than 162 homers last year so if the league maintains its current pace, the majority of teams will hit fewer than last year’s worst lineups.
It’s hardly unusual for run production to be suppressed early in the season when many teams are playing in colder weather. The ball tends to fly further when the weather heats up so offensive production will inevitably improve as we head towards summer.
This doesn’t fully explain Boston’s struggles considering how poorly they compare to their peers across the majors. However, the decline isn’t as drastic as it appears when put into the proper perspective.
The Red Sox are hitting a different ball
The April weather only partially explains the offensive decline in baseball. The biggest issue might be the baseball itself.
As former Red Sox player and current NESN analyst Will Middlebrooks explained, players have noted that the balls used this season have noticeably higher seams. MLB might have done this intentionally to make it easier for pitchers to grip the ball after they started cracking down on the usage of sticky stuff to artificially improve spin rates.
Regardless of their intent to alter the ball, the change has had a notable impact on run production. Higher seams means the cover on the ball isn’t pulled as tightly. A tighter cover makes the ball harder, allowing it to travel further. The raised seams also create more air resistance.
These might seem like relatively minor differences but even a slightly softer ball that is slowed by increased drag on the higher seams could turn a home run into a routine fly out.
Strikeout rates haven’t spiked since last year. Boston’s 22.0 K% is actually slightly down from 22.6% last year. The decline in offense is primarily based on the balls in play. The Red Sox were second in the majors with a .309 BABIP last year, which isn’t unusual since the inviting green wall in Fenway Park’s left field helps turn balls that would be an out in many parks into a hit. This year, Boston is well below-average with a .270 BABIP.
The Red Sox have been a bit overly aggressive at the plate. They are swinging at pitches outside of the zone too much and they are the worst in the majors at drawing walks with a 6.3 BB%. Those are clearly factors in Boston’s lack of production but they are only part of the story. The Red Sox are putting the ball in play at a higher rate than last year and the steep decline in BABIP is influenced by the alterations to the baseball.
The Red Sox had a short training camp to prepare
Training camp was delayed by the lockout, with both sides focused more on their long-term goals than the immediate concern of the upcoming season. Since MLB wanted to avoid cancelling games or pushing the postseason schedule deep into November, the compromise was a shorter spring training that didn’t give players sufficient time to prepare.
The reason behind Trevor Story’s slow start is fairly obvious. The lockout halted free agency negotiations for months and he didn’t end up signing with the Red Sox until spring training was nearly over. He left camp shortly after his arrival for the birth of his child, shortening his time to prepare even further. Boston’s prized offseason acquisition is expected to be a tremendous upgrade to the lineup but you’re crazy if you expected Story to start the season on fire after only 12 plate appearances in spring training.
A shorter training camp also means pitchers had less time to build up their workload. Teams have leaned on their bullpen more frequently in recent years but this strategy has been taken to the extreme so far this season. MLB has allowed expanded rosters in April, allowing teams to carry extra relievers to make it easier for bullpens to handle nearly half of the workload. Only 13 major league starters with at least three appearances have averaged 6+ innings this season.
Most relievers tend to limit runs more effectively than the average starter since they can unleash their velocity in shorter stints, rely on a more limited arsenal and they don’t need to worry about facing the same hitter multiple times. With relievers handling a higher percentage of innings, pitching staffs have the advantage.
Rushing through a limited training camp put players at an increased risk of injury. The Red Sox haven’t been hit hard by significant injuries but they have taken a toll, even if we ignore Chris Sale’s rib injury that occurred before camp opened.
Xander Bogaerts tweaked his hamstring on Opening Day and followed by going 2-for-18 over his next five games. He busted out of his brief slump last week but was clearly compromised for several days while the hamstring soreness lingered.
J.D. Martinez has missed the last four games with left adductor tightness. Replacing his spot in the lineup with Travis Shaw or Rob Refsnyder is obviously a drastic downgrade.
The Red Sox don’t have enough depth to cover for injuries to one of their star players. Removing a productive bat for an automatic out will shorten any lineup. You know your offense is in trouble when Jackie Bradley Jr., arguably the worst hitter in baseball last year, is batting sixth.
These aren’t long-term concerns though. Players should get healthier and find their rhythm at the plate to recover from slow starts. The Red Sox have prized prospects who could emerge later in the season to upgrade the fringe players on the edge of the roster. Additional reinforcements could be found at the trade deadline. The roster the Red Sox have now isn’t the one they will end the season with.
The lack of offense is certainly a concern but the decline isn’t as troubling as it seems when we consider why run production in general is down across the league. Boston still rates poorly against the competition, but we’re early enough in the season that one strong series could shake up those rankings. There is plenty of reason for optimism that they will improve upon this small sample size so don’t push that panic button yet.
Next. Red Sox Prospect Watch. dark