Boston Red Sox: 10 bold predictions for the 2022 season

Red Sox prospect Jarren Duran will replace Jackie Bradley Jr.

Much of the statistical baseball analysis done these days is for the purpose of trying to unearth some hidden information about a player that the surface-level numbers don’t tell you. Maybe it’s a hitter who is squaring the ball up but hitting it right at people, or a pitcher who isn’t throwing their nasty slider enough and instead relying on a straight, low-spin fastball.

In some cases, however, the underlying metrics tell you exactly what you would expect. Such is the case with Jackie Bradley Jr. By conventional measures, Bradley Jr. was the worst hitter in baseball, slashing a laughably bad .136/.236/.261 last season. Well, maybe he was unlucky, and he wasn’t nearly as bad as those numbers suggest. Nope. Bradley ranked in the first percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, proving that he truly was the weakest hitter in the game in 2021.

Jarren Duran, meanwhile, has tools that the 32-year-old Bradley can only dream of. His power and speed are both well-above average, and while he might not be the defender Bradley is right now, he has the skills to stick in center field. He may have been overwhelmed in his brief stint in the majors last year, but his OPS was still 100 points greater than Bradley’s.

Duran has also shown that he is willing and able to make adjustments. He entered spring training with his hands in a lower starting position than 2021, leading to a .333 batting average during the exhibition games. The potential of Duran is so much greater than that of Bradley, and if the veteran continues to struggle at the plate, expect the Red Sox to make an early change.