Boston Red Sox starting pitcher stat predictions for the 2022 season

Stat projections for the new-look Red Sox starting rotation

For the third part of my four-part prediction series, we’ll take a look at some stat projections for the Boston Red Sox starting rotation.

This is a group that has undergone a lot of turnover in the past year, as Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and James Paxton were brought in to replace the departed Eduardo Rodriguez, Martin Perez and Garrett Richards. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding this collection of arms with Chris Sale and Paxton both being out until mid-season and the three spots behind Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta largely up in the air.

Because of these question marks, I have to make assumptions with my predictions. First off, I assumed that Tanner Houck, Hill and Wacha would win the three final rotation spots, and each would pitch a full season as a starter. This is pretty unlikely to happen, but it makes projection their stats a lot easier. I also projected that Sale would make around 18 starts and throw around 100 innings, even though the actual number is anyone’s guess.

Finally, I figured it would be silly to try and predict Paxton’s stats considering there is just so much  unknown about when he will return and what kind of pitcher he will be when he does. So with all that being said, let’s take a look at stat predictions for the 2022 Red Sox rotation.

Red Sox SP: Nathan Eovaldi

The 2021 Red Sox rotation was a mess. Chris Sale didn’t return until August. Eduardo Rodriguez was hit hard and posted the worst season of his career. Garrett Richards was unusable after the sticky stuff crackdown, Martin Perez had a second-half ERA of 6.75, and Nick Pivetta struggled after a hot start.

The one constant was Nathan Eovaldi, who was healthy and effective all season long. That is something that would have been unthinkable two years ago. Eovaldi spent his first seven years as a promising but inconsistent starter who missed too much time with injuries. It looked like he turned the page with his incredible 2018 playoff run, but the injury bug bit him again in 2019, and he was terrible the few times he was available (5.99).

Who would have thought that Eovaldi would prove himself as the Red Sox’s most dependable starter over the last two years? Since 2020, Eovaldi has lowered his ERA from 4.30 to 3.75, raised his K/9 from 7.0 to 9.9, and cut his walk rate from 2.9 to 1.6. He did all of that without missing any time on the IL, toeing the rubber more often than any other Red Sox starting pitcher.

The key to Eovaldi’s success is the command of his deep arsenal of offerings. He throws five pitches more than 12 percent of the time, and his ability to control each of them allows them to be thrown in any count. That arsenal has gotten even sharper in recent years, as his cutter gained four inches of vertical movement in 2021 while his curveball gained over two.

Eovaldi unquestionably has the command and stuff to be a frontline starting pitcher, but the question will always be health. A two-time Tommy John surgery recipient, Eovaldi started 30 games just once in his first ten seasons before leading the league with 32 starts in 2021. As he enters his 12th season in the league, Eovaldi is more susceptible to injuries with such serious mileage on his arm, and the Red Sox can ill-afford to lose their ace.

As good as Eovaldi’s 2021 season was, there is evidence it could have been even better. Eovaldi’s league-leading 2.79 FIP was nearly a run lower than his 3.75 ERA, indicating that he was suffering from poor batted-ball luck and terrible defense. With the Red Sox improving their defense with the additions of Trevor Story and Jackie Bradley Jr., Eovaldi could be even better in 2022.

Stat Predictions: 13-7, 3.63 ERA, 172 IP, 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9

Red Sox SP: Nick Pivetta

Chaim Bloom has made a lot of smart moves over his two years as the Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer, but his best move may have been the one that brought Nick Pivetta to Boston for the low, low price of Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. On the surface, it’s difficult to see exactly what Bloom saw in the right-hander, who posted a 5.50 ERA over his four years with the Phillies. The underlying metrics, however, showed that Pivetta struck out and walked batters at an above-average rate, and the Red Sox were betting that a change of scenery would help him unlock his potential.

A year into Pivetta’s Red Sox career, it appears that they were right. Pivetta proved himself as a quality middle-rotation arm, taking the ball 30 times and posting an acceptable 4.53 ERA. He continued to miss bats, striking out over ten batters per nine innings and turned up his game even further in the postseason (2.63 ERA).

What’s allowed Pivetta to take the next step has been the increased development of his curveball. Pivetta’s high-spin hook has always been an effective offering, but by adding six inches of vertical movement in 2021, it became downright nasty. Hitters batted .165 and .295 against his curve in 2021 and whiffed at the pitch 26.4 percent of the time. The effectiveness of his curveball, along with a fastball that gained two miles per hour, allowed Pivetta to make the leap he was never able to make in Philadelphia.

For Pivetta to become a true frontline starter, he’ll need to be able to rely on more than those two pitches. Batters slugged .471 against his slider (or 13 points higher than Joey Gallo), and his changeup was even worse (.313 batting average/.688 slugging percentage). Having only two useful offerings hurt Pivetta as he worked deeper into the games. He had a 5.48 ERA in the fifth inning and a 6.48 ERA in the sixth, and he faced just twelve batters in the seventh inning or later all year.

With Sale out for the first two months of the season and an inconsistent bullpen, the Red Sox really need Pivetta to be able to eat innings. His curveball and fastball are more than good enough to get through the first part of his game, but it will take further development of his slider and changeup for him to be a worthy second option to Eovaldi.

Stat Predictions: 10-9, 4.37 ERA, 163 IP, 9.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

Red Sox SP: Michael Wacha

Throw your best pitch as much as possible. This seems to be an obvious statement, but with many pitchers whose premier offering is something other than a fastball, it takes a while to put that theory into action. Michael Wacha has always had a plus changeup, but for some reason, he kept throwing his low spin, straight fastball, a pitch that opposing hitters had an xSLG of .627 against.

Last year, however, Wacha threw that fastball at a career-low rate and his changeup at a career-high rate. The increased usage did not make his off-speed offering any less effective, as batters hit just .207 against the pitch last season and whiffed 34 percent of the time. This allowed Wacha to strike out batters at a league-average rate despite a low-spin fastball and curveball.

The biggest reason for optimism for the right-hander is the way he finished the 2021 season. After pitching to a 5.88 ERA over his first 16 starts, a performance so bad that he got bounced from the rotation, Wacha posted a 2.88 ERA over his final seven. His final two starts were particularly spectacular, allowing just one hit over ten scoreless innings.

According to Wacha, the key to his late-season success was the elimination of his most ineffective pitch, per MassLive’s Christopher Smith.

“I felt like the cutter just didn’t have the consistency I wanted to,” said Wacha. “So just kind of scrapped that and started mixing in the curveball.”

Eliminating a pitch batters hit .375 against is a move that seemed to be a long time coming, and Wacha was a completely different pitcher after the change.

Considering he burst onto the scene in the 2013 postseason, it’s hard to believe that Wacha is only 30 years old. Injuries and inconsistency may have sapped Wacha of his shine, but there is still plenty of time for him to turn it around. There’s a lot to like with the way Wacha finished the 2021 season, and if he can continue to build on his improvements, he can establish himself as a dependable, mid-rotation starter.

Stat Predictions: 10-8, 4.58 ERA, 152 IP, 8.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9

Red Sox SP: Rich Hill

In terms of pure entertainment factor, there may be no pitcher in baseball than Rich Hill. He grunts his way through 88 miles per hour fastballs. His curveballs barely register on the radar gun. He’ll drop down sidearm just for fun, and finishes his delivery with a Rockette-level leg kick. No matter what, Hill will give Red Sox fans reasons to tune it this year.

In terms of his actual pitching ability, however, there are many reasons to be concerned. Hill has always been viewed as an ageless wonder, but he has clearly slipped a bit since turning 40:

2016-2019: 2.6 BB/9, 10.6 K/9
2020-2021: 3.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9

The main culprit appears to be a fastball that has slipped two miles per hour since 2019. With even more time to tee off on the below-average heater, opposing hitters have gone from hitting .219 on the pitch two years ago to .269 last season. For a pitcher that pretty much is just fastball-curveball at this point, the decreased efficiency of one of those pitches could be disastrous.

The good news for Hill is that his curveball remains an elite offering. Opposing hitters hit just .224 and slugged just .291 against the breaker despite the fact that the pitch has lost over three miles per hour since 2016. As long as Hill still has his elite hook in his back pocket, he’ll still be able to pitch at a big-league level.

Though Hill has been getting purely on guts and guile, it may be time for him to transition to a bullpen role. He’s no longer able to work deep into games, as he reached the seventh inning just twice in his 31 starts. Like Pivetta, the lack of a reliable pitch makes it much easier for hitters to square him up when they see him for the third and fourth times.

What Hill can still do, however, is get lefties out. Same-side hitters slashed just .187/.297/.366 against him, a mark that is even lower than his career .212/.322/.327 against them. It’s clear that Hill would be best served in a three-to-four inning role, mostly against lefties, and piggy-packed with a guy like Garrett Whitlock. In that role, and only in that role, can he still be a somewhat effective pitcher.

Stat Predictions:  5-7, 4.84 ERA, 128 IP,  7.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 

Red Sox SP: Chris Sale

Chris Sale may have returned from Tommy John surgery in August of last season, but the Chris Sale hasn’t been seen in two years. The man who was once considered the most untouchable man in baseball allowed hits at a higher rate than at any point in his career. His 11.0 K/9 was the lowest as a Red Sox, while his 2.5 BB/9 was his highest since 2012.

Sale has always leaned on his elite three-pitch mix to overwhelm hitters, but one of those offering was clearly not the same in 2021. Sale’s changeup was downright batting practice, as opposing batters hit .444 and slugged .677 against the pitch. Sale was pretty much a two-pitch pitcher, and with a fastball that lost a mile and a half since 2018, he wasn’t able to miss bats at nearly the same rate.

What Sale really needed was a normal spring training to begin to build back his once-elite repertoire. That plan went out the window, however, when a rib injury sidelined the lanky lefty before the exhibition games even began. It will be a while before we see Sale on the mound, as Sale still has no timetable for resuming throwing activities. This will be the fifth straight season that Sale misses significant time, and the former ace is losing trust with Red Sox management and fans alike with every successive injury.

The days of Sale absolutely overpowering hitters may be over, but that doesn’t mean that he still can’t be effective. Even with diminished stuff, Sale was still a well-above-average pitcher in 2021. Sale posted an ERA+ of 150 last season despite numerous blow-ups, meaning he was 50 percent better than the average pitcher.

It was unfair for anyone to expect Sale to be 100% after two years of rust, and his last two starts against the Astros showed improved fastball velocity and a sharper breaking ball. There’s a lot of ways Sale’s 2022 season can go, but if he comes back from this latest injury fully healthy, it’s hard not to see him as a frontline starting pitcher.

Stat Predictions:  6-4, 3.42 ERA, 97 IP ,11.3 K/9, 2.7 BB