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Boston Red Sox starting pitcher stat predictions for the 2022 season

By Daniel Fox

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 22: Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Boston Red Sox reacts aftter striking out Chas McCormick #20 of the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in Game Six of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 22: Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Boston Red Sox reacts aftter striking out Chas McCormick #20 of the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in Game Six of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /
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FT. MYERS, FL – MARCH 14: Rich Hill #53 of the Boston Red Sox throws during a spring training team workout on March 14, 2022 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
FT. MYERS, FL – MARCH 14: Rich Hill #53 of the Boston Red Sox throws during a spring training team workout on March 14, 2022 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /

Red Sox SP: Rich Hill

In terms of pure entertainment factor, there may be no pitcher in baseball than Rich Hill. He grunts his way through 88 miles per hour fastballs. His curveballs barely register on the radar gun. He’ll drop down sidearm just for fun, and finishes his delivery with a Rockette-level leg kick. No matter what, Hill will give Red Sox fans reasons to tune it this year.

In terms of his actual pitching ability, however, there are many reasons to be concerned. Hill has always been viewed as an ageless wonder, but he has clearly slipped a bit since turning 40:

2016-2019: 2.6 BB/9, 10.6 K/9
2020-2021: 3.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9

The main culprit appears to be a fastball that has slipped two miles per hour since 2019. With even more time to tee off on the below-average heater, opposing hitters have gone from hitting .219 on the pitch two years ago to .269 last season. For a pitcher that pretty much is just fastball-curveball at this point, the decreased efficiency of one of those pitches could be disastrous.

The good news for Hill is that his curveball remains an elite offering. Opposing hitters hit just .224 and slugged just .291 against the breaker despite the fact that the pitch has lost over three miles per hour since 2016. As long as Hill still has his elite hook in his back pocket, he’ll still be able to pitch at a big-league level.

Though Hill has been getting purely on guts and guile, it may be time for him to transition to a bullpen role. He’s no longer able to work deep into games, as he reached the seventh inning just twice in his 31 starts. Like Pivetta, the lack of a reliable pitch makes it much easier for hitters to square him up when they see him for the third and fourth times.

What Hill can still do, however, is get lefties out. Same-side hitters slashed just .187/.297/.366 against him, a mark that is even lower than his career .212/.322/.327 against them. It’s clear that Hill would be best served in a three-to-four inning role, mostly against lefties, and piggy-packed with a guy like Garrett Whitlock. In that role, and only in that role, can he still be a somewhat effective pitcher.

Stat Predictions:  5-7, 4.84 ERA, 128 IP,  7.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 

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