Boston Red Sox outfield stat projections for the 2022 season

Red Sox left fielder: Alex Verdugo

For the first five years of his career, Alex Verdugo showed flashes of stardom but hadn’t gotten enough playing time to prove what he can truly do. He spent his first two seasons struggling to break into the Dodger’s crowded infield, playing a combined 52 games over the two spots. A spot finally opened up for him in 2019, but an oblique injury cost him two months. Verdugo was healthy and had a starting spot waiting for him upon his arrival in Boston, but the pandemic shortened the season to 60 games.

Verdugo finally got to play a full season in 2021, and the results were…. Fine? As expected? His .289/.348/.444 slash line was pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers, as was his 8.4% walk rate and 15.8% strikeout rate. Verdugo may have proved he could stay healthy for a full season, but he was the same player he’s always been.

Under the surface, however, there are signs that Verdugo is making improvements. His barrel percentage has increased in each of the last four years, topping out at 7.3% in 2021. His exit velocity was also a career-best, nearly a three-mile-per-hour increase from 2020. He’s done all this without sacrificing his elite bat-to-ball skills, ranking in the 88th percentile in whiff percentage, per Baseball Savant.

Although Verdugo put together career-best batted ball numbers, there are two obvious ways he can improve his game even further. The first is to elevate the ball more. Verdugo has increased his fly ball percentage each year of his career, but his average launch angle pales in comparison to other Red Sox hitters:

Alex Verdugo: 7.7
J.D Martinez: 16.9
Bobby Dalbec: 17.3
Rafael Devers: 13.1

Obviously, Verdugo has a different hitting style than these three, but it’s hard to be a great hitter in this day of age by hitting only ground balls and line drives. Verdugo makes enough hard contact to be a legitimate home run threat, but he can only do that if he can get the ball in the air.

The second way Verdugo can up his game is to improve his numbers against lefties. Verdugo mashed righties to the tune of a .321/.392/.501 but batted just .228/.269/.286 versus southpaws. That total is a significant drop-off from his career .271/.311/.363 career line, so his 2021 season might not be truly representative of his abilities against southpaws, but if those struggles carry over into 2022, he might start losing starts against left-handers.

One thing that is clear about Verdugo is that he can’t play center field. His -6 Outs Above Average was one of the worst totals among centerfielders despite only playing 42 games there. Yet while his mediocre range may limit his performance in center, he has been perfectly adequate in both left and right field. With Kike Hernandez now playing centerfield full-time, Verdugo’s defensive numbers should vastly improve in 2022.

Like many other of his young teammates, I project Verdugo to take additional steps forward in 2022. This may not be the year he realizes his full potential, but if he can continue to build on the improvements he made last year, Verdugo can become an All-Star caliber player.

Stat Projections: .302/.372/.483, 17 HR, 80 RBI, 3.1 WAR