Boston Red Sox outfield stat projections for the 2022 season
Stat projections for the Red Sox electric outfield
On Tuesday, we take a look at the high-profile Red Sox infield, a group that will undoubtedly put up some eye-popping numbers. For today’s article, we’ll move into the outfield for part two of my 2022 season projections.
The Red Sox outfield was an extremely successful group last year. Alex Verdugo finally played a full season and batted .289, Kiké Hernández accounted for 4.9 WAR, and Hunter Renfroe launched 31 home runs and drove in nearly 100 runs. Even J.D Martinez, who can only be qualified as an outfielder under the most generous of circumstances, enjoyed a bounce-back campaign in which he led the league with 42 doubles.
All signs pointed to the Sox running it back in 2022, but that plan was thrown for an unexpected loop. Just hours before the lockout, the Red Sox flipped Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects. Bradley had a very successful run with Boston and was one of the 2018 postseason heroes, but he had one of the worst offensive seasons in recent memory in his lone campaign with the Brewers. Now he’ll be asked to man the everyday right field spot for a team with championship aspirations.
Even with the addition of Bradley, there’s a lot to like about the Red Sox outfield. Let’s take a look at what to expect from each one, starting with their energetic sparkplug.
Red Sox left fielder: Alex Verdugo
For the first five years of his career, Alex Verdugo showed flashes of stardom but hadn’t gotten enough playing time to prove what he can truly do. He spent his first two seasons struggling to break into the Dodger’s crowded infield, playing a combined 52 games over the two spots. A spot finally opened up for him in 2019, but an oblique injury cost him two months. Verdugo was healthy and had a starting spot waiting for him upon his arrival in Boston, but the pandemic shortened the season to 60 games.
Verdugo finally got to play a full season in 2021, and the results were…. Fine? As expected? His .289/.348/.444 slash line was pretty much exactly in line with his career numbers, as was his 8.4% walk rate and 15.8% strikeout rate. Verdugo may have proved he could stay healthy for a full season, but he was the same player he’s always been.
Under the surface, however, there are signs that Verdugo is making improvements. His barrel percentage has increased in each of the last four years, topping out at 7.3% in 2021. His exit velocity was also a career-best, nearly a three-mile-per-hour increase from 2020. He’s done all this without sacrificing his elite bat-to-ball skills, ranking in the 88th percentile in whiff percentage, per Baseball Savant.
Although Verdugo put together career-best batted ball numbers, there are two obvious ways he can improve his game even further. The first is to elevate the ball more. Verdugo has increased his fly ball percentage each year of his career, but his average launch angle pales in comparison to other Red Sox hitters:
Alex Verdugo: 7.7
J.D Martinez: 16.9
Bobby Dalbec: 17.3
Rafael Devers: 13.1
Obviously, Verdugo has a different hitting style than these three, but it’s hard to be a great hitter in this day of age by hitting only ground balls and line drives. Verdugo makes enough hard contact to be a legitimate home run threat, but he can only do that if he can get the ball in the air.
The second way Verdugo can up his game is to improve his numbers against lefties. Verdugo mashed righties to the tune of a .321/.392/.501 but batted just .228/.269/.286 versus southpaws. That total is a significant drop-off from his career .271/.311/.363 career line, so his 2021 season might not be truly representative of his abilities against southpaws, but if those struggles carry over into 2022, he might start losing starts against left-handers.
One thing that is clear about Verdugo is that he can’t play center field. His -6 Outs Above Average was one of the worst totals among centerfielders despite only playing 42 games there. Yet while his mediocre range may limit his performance in center, he has been perfectly adequate in both left and right field. With Kike Hernandez now playing centerfield full-time, Verdugo’s defensive numbers should vastly improve in 2022.
Like many other of his young teammates, I project Verdugo to take additional steps forward in 2022. This may not be the year he realizes his full potential, but if he can continue to build on the improvements he made last year, Verdugo can become an All-Star caliber player.
Stat Projections: .302/.372/.483, 17 HR, 80 RBI, 3.1 WAR
Red Sox center fielder: Kiké Hernández
One of Alex Cora’s most controversial moves as manager was to insert Kiké Hernandez into the leadoff spot at the beginning of last year. There was nothing in the numbers that supported that decision, as Hernandez had just a career .313 on-base percentage over his first seven seasons in the league. Sure enough, Hernandez struggled over his first two and half months in Boston, slashing .224/.279/.371 with just 13 walks in 222 plate appearances.
It appeared the time was approaching for a change at the top of the lineup, but like so many other moves, Cora turned out to have pushed the right button. Hernandez hit an incredible .267/.372/.502 through the end of the season, providing not only the best offense of his career but becoming one of the biggest offensive threats on the team. Most surprisingly, Hernandez became a far more patient hitter, upping his walk rate from 5.9% to 13.2%.
The question now becomes whether or not Hernandez’s improvements in the second half of last year overshadow what he has shown in the first five and a half years of his career. When you go under the hood, however, you can see that Hernandez made substantial changes in his approach. His strikeout rate has dropped eight percent from 2016, and he has cut down on his chase rate by six points. A more patient approach allowed Hernandez to be more selective in the pitches that he did swing at, resulting in an exit velocity increase by nearly two percent and a barrel percentage increase of over one point.
Hernandez’s offensive improvement is really just an added bonus because he would be a valuable player based on defense alone. Despite splitting time between second and center field, Hernandez was one of the best defensive outfielders in the game last year. Nobody in the game was better at getting jumps on the ball, and he rode that skill to 8 Outs Above Average in just 88 games in center field. The ability to get defense like that at a premium position is indispensable and gives Hernandez a solid floor even if offense craters.
Overall, though, while I don’t believe that Hernandez is as good offensively as he was during that two-and-a-half-month stretch, he made sustainable improvements at the plate that should make him a viable leadoff hitter moving forward. Combine that with his plus-plus defense, and then are few better center fielders in the American League.
Stat Projections: .262/.343/.425, 17 HR, 51 RBI, 3.8 WAR
Red Sox right fielder: Jackie Bradley Jr.
Red Sox fans could be forgiven if they thought they were done with the Jackie Bradley Jr. experience. After seven years of up-and-down performance in which he would look like a perennial All-Star one day and the worst hitter in baseball the next, Bradley departed for Milwaukee after the 2020 season. The results were not pretty.
The best thing you can say about Bradley’s lone season with the Brewers is that he brought his glove and legs with him. Bradley Jr’s 12 DRS was his highest total since 2017, while his sprint speed is virtually unchanged from his rookie season. No matter how inept his bat gets, Bradley will always have a spot on a major league roster as long as his glove and baserunning remain above average.
Bradley, however, is testing the limits of just low his bat can go. By nearly any metric, he was the worst hitter in baseball in 2021. He ranked in the first percentile in XWOBA, XBA, and expected slugging. His walk rate fell to a career-low level, while his strikeout rate climbed nearly eight percent from 2020. Bradley has had stretches of inept offense throughout his career, but this was the first time such a funk has lasted the full season.
The biggest difference between Bradley’s offensive performance in 2020 and 2021 was his ability to hit fastballs. Bradley was downright dominant against heaters in the shortened campaign, batting .375 and slugging .605 in at-bats ending with fastballs. In 2021, however, those numbers fell to .187 and .296. Bradley’s game has always been dependent on his ability to hit fastballs, as he is pretty much useless against any other pitch, and as he enters his age 32 season, there’s little hope that his bat-speed will return.
Is there a chance that Bradley Jr. is rejuvenated by his return to Boston and returns to his pre-Milwaukee ways? Sure. But all signs point to Bradley Jr. being one of the worst hitters in baseball, and it’s far more likely that he is replaced by someone like Jarren Duran at midseason than that he rediscovers his hitting stroke.
Stat Predictions: .202/.284/.338, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 0.1 WAR
Red Sox designated hitter: J.D Martinez
It is impossible to quantify J.D Martinez’s 2021 as anything other than a rousing success. After a disastrous 2020 season in which he was the second-worst player in MLB by fWAR (looking at you, Jo Adell), Martinez unexpectedly returned to becoming an above-average hitter. Martinez slashed a solid .286/.349/.518, drove in nearly 100 runs and led the league with 42 doubles.
It was an absolutely incredible turnaround for Martinez, and the underlying metrics speak to just how much he improved. He raised his exit velocity by over two and a half MPH, lifted his barrel percentage by a point and a half, and increased his hard-hit rate by nearly eight points. Martinez repeatedly said that his decline in 2020 was due in large part to being unable to use in-game video, and he backed up those words with his bat.
As good as Martinez’s 2021 season was, there were still some warning signs. Though his numbers were undoubtedly better than they were in 2020, they paled in comparison to the levels of his 2017-2019. As he enters his age 34 season, it’s highly unlikely he ever reaches those marks again.
Martinez’s age is also showing up in the underlying metrics. One of his biggest problems in 2020 was his inability to hit fastballs, as he had an xWOBA of just .281 against such pitches. He was able to improve that number to .343 in 2021, but selling out for the heater came with a cost. His plate discipline regressed, leading to his highest chase rate since his rookie season and his lowest walk rate since 2015. Pitchers responded by throwing more breaking balls than ever, and Martinez responded by whiffing at such offerings 40% of the time.
Another worry with Martinez comes with Alex Cora’s announcement that he will likely play right field against left-handed pitchers. Besides being a completely inept defender, the idea of a 34-year-old with a history of lower-body injuries lumbering around the outfield for a significant portion of the season is cause for concern.
Martinez proved last year that he still has some gas left in the tank, but the underlying metrics show that he’s not the hitter he once was. Expect his numbers to keep dropping as he enters his mid-30s.
Stats Predictions: .271/.324/.463, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 1.7 WAR
Next. Four pitchers who can replace Chris Sale. dark