Boston Red Sox infield stat projections for the 2022 season
Stat predictions for the Red Sox vaunted infield
It’s almost that time of the year. Boston Red Sox baseball is just about a week away, and with the team’s unexpected playoff run last October and the signing of star shortstop (second baseman?) Trevor Story, anticipation has never been higher.
With that being said, I thought it was about time to do some predictions for the 2022 Red Sox. For simplicity sakes, I projected each player as if they will play a full season, with the exception of the currently injured Chris Sale, who will be addressed along with the pitching staff in a future installment of this series.
This will be a four-part series in which I calculate my own projections for the Red Sox roster, starting with the high-profile infield. So without further ado, let’s kick things off, starting with one of last year’s postseason heroes.
Red Sox catcher: Christian Vazquez
Christian Vazquez has always been one of my personal favorites. What’s not to love about a stocky, 5-foot-7 catcher who pimps 350-foot home runs? Vazquez has been a staple of the Red Sox since the 2014 season, a key part of the 2018 championship team, and a tremendous leader of an ever-changing pitching staff.
That’s what makes what I’m about to say quite difficult: There’s a good chance this will be Vazquez’s last season in Boston. Vazquez has typically been one of the league’s weakest hitters, but he took it to a new low in 2021. His average exit velocity dropped three points from his career-best 2019 season, while his hard-hit percentage dropped nine points. The result was a weighted on-base percentage that ranked in the fourth percentile of major league hitters, per Baseball Savant.
Vazquez’s surface-level numbers are serviceable enough for a catcher, especially in this day and age, but the underlying metrics show he benefited from some luck. Vazquez’s .301 BABIP is around league average, but given how softly he hits the ball and the fact that he runs about as fast as an elderly turtle, that number should have been a lot lower. His expected batting average was 23 points lower than his actual average, while his expected slugging was 15 points lower.
Vazquez’s anemic bat would be a lot easier to swallow if he was still one of the best defenders in the game, but his play behind the plate has taken a step back as well. Vazquez’s defense is still well above average, but it is not nearly what it was in his prime, as his defensive runs saved has dropped from 20.8 in 2019 to 7.2 last season. With his glove slipping from other-worldly to merely good, there’s more pressure than ever on his feeble offense.
As Vazquez turns 31 this summer, there is little hope that his game will return to its prior levels. As difficult as it may be to say, it could be time for the Red Sox to start looking for a new catcher.
Stat Prediction: .242/.293/330, 5 HR, 37 RBI, -0.1 WAR
Red Sox First Baseman: Bobby Dalbec
You would be forgiven if you gave up on Bobby Dalbec last season. Through June 8 of last year, Dalbec was slashing a paltry .185/.237/.358 with just six home runs to his name. His plate discipline was particularly atrocious, as he walked just ten times against 65 strikeouts. A player who appeared to establish himself as a future star in 2020 was now in danger of being sent down.
Then, like a switch, Dalbec not only kept his spot as an everyday first baseman but became one of the best at the position in baseball. From June 10, Dalbec improved his slash line to .275/.336/.580 with 19 home runs and 54 RBIs. His approach at the plate didn’t improve much, but he did increase his walk rate from 5.7% to 6.8% and cut his strikeout rate by 5%.
Even if Dalbec never becomes a patient contact hitter, his bat will still be more than good enough for first base. Despite an up-and-down season, there were very few hitters in the league who hit the ball as hard as he did last year. The big first baseman ranked in the top ten percentile in exit velocity, max exit velocity, and barrel percentage. He was especially excellent against left-handed pitching, slashing .281/.326/.576 against them last season.
Dalbec also is far from a one-dimensional slugger. For one, he moves surprisingly well for such a big guy. His sprint speed was in the top 25% of all runners and first among full-time first basemen. In addition, unlike many whiff-prone hitters, Dalbec had success against all kinds of pitches. He slugged at least .450 on every pitch type last year, proving that there’s no easy way to get him out.
Dalbec may never be a perfect hitter, but the improvements he made last year established him as worthy of an everyday spot. Expect Dalbec to take another step forward this year.
Stat Prediction: .256/.323/.496, 33 HR, 86 RBI, 1.2 WAR
Red Sox second baseman: Trevor Story
As Trevor Story gets ready to begin in his first year in Boston, there are three main questions I have as I attempt to project his 2022 statistics:
How will his speed play in a team that doesn’t like to steal bases?
Will his defense rebound upon the move to second base?
Can he keep up his elite offense outside of Coors Field?
Let’s start with the first question. What sets Story apart from his fellow power-hitting shortstops is his ability to steal bases. Story has averaged 21 swiped bags over the last four years, including leading the league with 15 steals in 2020.
This makes for an interesting fit on a Red Sox team that was one of the worst baserunning teams in the majors last year. The Sox ranked 29th in the majors in both stolen bases and stolen base percentage, and it was the slow-footed Christian Vazquez who lead the team with just eight steals.
With so many slow-footed sluggers batting behind Story in the lineup, he may not get the same amount of green lights that he got in Colorado. He’ll still likely lead the team in steals, but his speed may be best served in beating out ground balls and taking the extra base.
The answer to the second question really depends on what defensive metrics you choose to believe. By Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, Story was one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball, accounting for -7 OAA. Yet by Fangraphs Defensive Runs Saved metrics, he was nearly ten runs above-average, just as he had been his entire career.
What’s not controversial is Story’s arm, a tool that is universally regarded as below-average. A bout of elbow inflammation last year only exacerbated the issue and may have contributed to his terrible OAA. A move to second base and a full offseason of rest should make Story’s arm a non-issue, and with his elite hands and range, Story should be a well-above-average defender at the keystone.
The third question is one that has followed many hitters who have departed Colorado over the years. Coors Field is famously the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the major leagues, and many Rockies hitters have extreme home road splits. Story is no different. He has a career .972 OPS and .752 OPS on the road.
Yet what they don’t tell you about calling a high-altitude environment home is that it makes it much harder to hit on the road. In the thin air of Colorado, breaking balls don’t have the same break and fastballs don’t have the same run, making it difficult to adjust when back road. Many other Rockies stars have had the same home-road splits only for the differences to disappear when they left Colorado:
Nolan Arenado:
Road OPS while with the Rockies: .793
Road OPS while with the Cardinals: .885
D.J LeMahieu
Road OPS while with the Rockies: .673
Road OPS while with the Yankees: .784
Story likely won’t post the same .970 OPS that he did in Colorado, but it would be foolish to assume that he will immediately regress to the mediocre output he posted on the road.
One thing that is more worrisome is his righty/lefty splits. Story is by no means bad against righties, as his .258/.324/.485 will attest to, but that .809 OPS is nearly 200 points lower than his total vs lefties. With Gerrit Cole, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Luis Severino looming in the division, not to mention the Rays never-ending abundance of right-handed relievers, those struggles against righties could be costly.
Nevertheless, Story’s combination of skill gives him an extremely high floor even if his offense takes a slight dip. Expect him to be well worth his contract in 2022 and beyond.
Stat Prediction: .276/.343/.507, 31 HR, 77 RBI, 12-15 SB, 4.5 WAR
Red Sox SS: Xander Bogaerts
It almost felt like we watched two versions of Xander Bogaerts last year. Through June 30, he was as tough of an out as there was in all of baseball. He slashed .330/.391/.551 with 37 XBH, and his name was squarely in the MVP discussion. There seemed to be no way to get him out. Pitch him inside, and he would flick his lightning-quick wrists and send one over the Monster. Pitch him outside, and he would go with the pitch into the right-center gap.
Then, just as it seemed Bogaerts was on his way to a MVP-caliber season, it all fell apart. Over the last three months, he slashed just .254/.346/.426. To be fair to Bogaerts, he did miss ten games on the COVID-IL, and the effects on his performance are unknown, but it is clear he just wasn’t the same hitter.
It looked like he turned the page with a strong start to the postseason, but he seemed completely overmatched against Houston, flailing at breaking ball after breaking ball en route to a .192 series average and ten strikeouts in just 28 plate appearances.
The second-half swoon was more of the same for Bogaerts, who is a career .321/.385/.545 hitter in the first half and a .255/.347/.414 hitter after the break.
Overall, however, Bogaerts had one of the best offensive seasons of his career. He set a career-high in sweet-spot percentage and XBA, and his hard-hit percentage was up six points from 2020. He did all that without sacrificing his above-average contact and plate discipline skills. Bogaerts has established himself as a consistent and dangerous force at the plate, and at just 29, there should be plenty left in the tank.
As dependable as Bogaerts’ offense is, his defense is that unreliable. Baseball Savant had him in the first percentile in Outs Above Average, meaning he wasn’t just the worst defensive shortstop in baseball but was one of the worst defensive players at any position. Bogaerts generally makes the routine play, making only nine errors all year, but his extreme lack of range and his poor arm make him one of the main reasons the Red Sox were one of the worst teams at converting ground balls into outs in Statcast history.
Bogaerts’ defense may be a key reason why the Red Sox signed Story this offseason to be his potential successor. Yet even though he may have some warts in his games, as his work in the field and history of second-half declines will attest to, there is no denying the impact Bogaerts had had on this generation of Boston baseball. His leadership, competitiveness, and overall hitting ability more than make up for his lackluster defense, and he should continue to produce at an All-Star level this season.
Stat Prediction: .286/.364/.488, 26 HR, 103 RBI, 4.8 WAR
Red Sox 3B: Rafael Devers
After years of showing flashes of superstardom but not being able to put it all together, Rafael Devers had his best campaign in 2021. His 38 home runs and 113 RBI helped him not only become a first-time All-Star but the American League starter at third base.
He improved his walk rate by nearly three percent from 2019 and did damage with the pitches he did swing at, ranking in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, 92nd in hard-hit percentage, and 94th in weighted on-base percentage. He stayed healthy, leading the Red Sox with 156 games played, and was at his best in October (5 HR, 1.029 OPS).
Devers is making the progress that you look for in young stars. His chase rate was the lowest of his career while his swing percentage was the highest, proving that he’s reading pitches better than he’s ever had. There is still a lot of work to do, as his whiff and chase percentage are both well above average, but it’s clear that he’s taking steps in the right direction.
There are very few hitters in baseball like Devers, not just in terms of how well he hits, but how he does it. He excels against pitches that baffle most other hitters, slugging a whopping.585 against breaking balls. Though he might be best against breaking balls, Devers can do damage against any pitch, as he had a slugging percentage of at least .500 against off-speed pitches, breaking balls, and fastballs.
For Devers to take the next step, he needs to step up his defense. Every once in a while, he’ll stop a hard grounder with a sprawl and fire a bullet to first or barehand a slow roller with ease, and you can see the makings of an elite defensive player. But just when you think he’s turning the page, he’ll play a grounder to the side that he should get in front of or airmail a throw he has all day to make. The numbers sum it up: Out of 241 qualified fielders, Devers was 239th in Outs Above Average.
As inconsistent as his defense may be, there are absolutely no questions about his offense. In fact, there is evidence that Devers might have even gotten unlucky last season. Though Fenway Park is known as a hitter’s park, the dimensions might have held Devers back, as his home run total would have been higher in 27 out of 30 ballparks. His .307 BABIP represented a 30 point drop from 2019 last season despite the fact that he hit the ball much harder.
All signs point to Devers being one of the best hitters in baseball, and as he enters his age 25 season, the Red Sox third baseman should only continue to move up the ranks.
Stat Prediction: .297/.384/.568, 42 HR, 118 RBI, 5.2 WAR
Next. Takeaways from the first week of Red Sox spring training. dark