A deep dive into newest Red Sox star Trevor Story

Who is new Red Sox second baseman Trevor Story?

Well, Boston Red Sox fans, you can’t complain about Chaim Bloom not spending money anymore. After years of short-term, low-risk deals, the Red Sox whipped out the checkbook for former Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, inking him to a 6-year, $140 million deal.

In his seven-year career in Colorado, Story built a reputation as one of the best all-around players in the game, and he has the accolades to prove it. He won two Silver Sluggers, made a pair of All-Star teams, and finished in the top 15 in MVP voting three times. Since the start of the 2018 season, only superstars Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, and Matt Chapman have accumulated more WAR.

Even with the incredible talent that Story possesses, he has largely been out of the national spotlight and overlooked by many MLB fans. He played for a small market team that was rarely in contention and was forced to share an infield with future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado.

So with many fans unsure about just who Trevor Story is, let’s take a deep look at exactly what kind of player the Red Sox are getting.

What Story brings to the Red Sox lineup

Ok, so let’s address the elephant in the room: Trevor Story has called Coors Field home for his entire big league career. The Colorado ballpark is easily the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the major leagues, and many of the Rockies hitters have drastic home/road splits. Story has been no different, compiling a career .972 OPS at home compared to a mediocre .752 OPS on the road.

Yet the thing about calling Coors Field home for 81 games is that it becomes much harder to hit on the road. In the high altitude of Colorado, breaking balls don’t have the same depth and fastballs have the same run. While that makes it easier to hit in Coors, it makes it difficult to adjust when going on the road where pitch breaks return to normal.

As a result, many hitters who have drastic home/road splits become far less platoon-ish when they move to another ballclub. Two recent Rockies stars, DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado, had the same splits as Story during their time in Colorado only to see the issue disappear when they changed clubs.

Nolan Arenado:
Road OPS while with the Rockies: .793
Road OPS while with the Cardinals: .885

D.J LeMahieu while with the Rockies: .673
D.J LeMahieu while with the Yankees: .784

This doesn’t necessarily mean that the same will happen to Story, but it does show that it would be foolish to assume that Story’s offensive success was just a result of playing in the high altitude.

Another reason for hope about Story’s offensive performance is that he has shown the ability to make adjustments. Story entered the league in 2016 with an all-or-nothing approach, slugging an incredible .567 but also striking out a whopping 31.3% of the time. That total grew to 34.4% in 2017, but this time, he wasn’t able to power his way through it. His slugging percentage dipped to .457, and he hit three fewer homers despite nearly 100 more plate appearances.

It was clear that a league-leading strikeout total wasn’t going to work for Story and that making better and more consistent contact was pertinent to take his game to the next level. He took that step in 2018, cutting his strikeout rate to a much more manageable 25.6%. The results on the rest of his game were immediate. His batting average jumped from .239 to .291, he hit a career-high 37 home runs, and he won his first Silver Slugger award.

Story’s strikeout rate has continued to fall as he’s gained more experience, reaching a career-low rate of 23.4% last year. Yet that’s about the only good thing you can say about Story’s 2021 season, as he posted his worst average (.251), on-base percentage (.329), and slugging percentage (.801) since his disastrous 2017 campaign.

The good news for Story is that the underlying metrics don’t point to a drastic fall-off in performance. His strikeout and walk rates were right in line with his career numbers, as were his average exit velocity, hard-hit percentages, and average launch angle . His barrel percentage was actually his highest since 2018, a span that includes his top-15 MVP finish seasons of 2019 and 2020. The main culprit appears to be a .293 BABIP, which easily set a career-low and points to the bad luck Story experienced last year.

Another thing working in Story’s favor is his batted ball tendencies. Story has some of the best pull power in the game, and he has a swing perfectly made for Fenway Park. Statcast projects that if Story had played all 162 games in Fenway, Story would have hit 38 home runs. That total is double what he would have hit if he played all 162 in Coors Field.

The biggest question surrounding Story’s first season in Boston is how he fits in the Red Sox lineup. It’s tricky to identify precisely where Story would be most productive, as he has both the speed to hit at the top of an order and the power to hit in the middle. Alex Cora seems to love the Devers-Bogaerts-Martinez combination, meaning that Story would likely bat second before those three or fifth behind them. My bet would be that he bats second before Devers as to not to have three right-handed hitters in a row.

There are things you can nitpick about Story’s offensive profile, but in all, there’s a lot to feel good about if you’re a Red So fan. His ability to cut his strikeout rate by nearly 10% has allowed his elite power to play up even more, and his capability to both lift the ball and pull it with authority will do wonders in Fenway Park. He may never put up the numbers he did in the high altitude of Colorado, but an .850 OPS and 30 home runs for the foreseeable future seems like a safe bet.

How Story fits with the Red Sox defense

When looking through Story’s numbers to put together this article, one number stood out to me: Four. That’s the percentile that Story was in according to Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric last year, meaning that he was a worse defender than 96% of shortstops. The -7 OAA that he totaled in 2021 was the worst of his career, indicating that his defense may be on a sharp decline.

Before freaking out that the Red Sox just gave a long-term deal to a plummeting defender, it’s essential to put context into their numbers. The Rockies had some of the worst pitching in the major leagues and allowed some of the highest exit velocities. That could explain why Story got fewer chances, as balls whizzed by him without him even having a chance to make a play. Story also dealt with a nagging leg injury that may have affected his range but won’t hamper him in the long term.

It’s also important to remember that defensive metrics are notoriously wonky. Story may have had a disastrous defensive season by Statcast measures, but according to Fangraphs, it was the second-best of his career. By every defensive measure, Story has been well above-average over the course of his major league career, totaling 47.5 defensive runs saved over by Fangraphs metrics and 18 Outs Above Average by Statcast’s.

Story should also benefit from the move to second base. While he has excellent hands and plus range, his arm has always been considered the weakest part of his game. That was especially true last season, when an elbow inflammation problem bothered him all season long and resulted in a short IL stint. An offseason of rest and a move to a position where arm strength is less of a priority should transform Story from an above-average defensive shortstop to an elite second baseman.

Story gives the Red Sox speed on the bases

What really sets Story apart from the rest of the new wave of power-hitting infielders is his ability to steal bases. He has stolen at least 20 bases in three of the last four seasons, and in the one season he didn’t, he led the league with 15 steals in the truncated 2020 season. He’s an efficient base stealer as well, swiping bags at an above-average 78.7% success rate.

The underlying metrics back about Story’s elite baserunning. He debuted in 2016 with a 29.6 ft/second average sprint speed, which ranked in the top 2% of all players. Story has slipped a bit throughout his seven-year career, but his 28.7 ft/second average sprint speed in 2021 still put him in the 89th percentile of all major leaguers.

Even if he might have lost a step, Story will still bring a much-needed speed element to the Red Sox lineup. They ranked 29th in baseball in both stolen bases and stolen base percentage, and it was slow-footed catcher Christian Vazquez who led the team with just eight steals. The stolen base may be a dying art in professional baseball, but the Red Sox’s station-to-station approach is even worse than the average team.

Story has the potential to change that, but the question is whether he will be able to use his wheels. He will be likely batting in front of big boppers such as J.D Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers, who may not want a base stealer distracting them during their at-bats. Story doesn’t have the benefit he had last year in Colorado, where he had very little support in the lineup and the green light to steal pretty much anytime he wanted.

Even if he’s not stealing bases at the same frequency in Colorado, Story’s speed will still have value in Boston. Elite speed affects the game in a variety of ways besides the raw stolen bases numbers. Story’s wheels will put pressure on the defense in a way that no other Red Sox player can, as even the slightest bobble could result in him reaching first. Story’s power will fit right in with a lineup filled with sluggers, but it’s his speed that could be a real difference-maker.

The contract the Red Sox gave Story

In their yearly free agency preview, MLBtraderumors.com predicted that Trevor Story would receive a 6-year, $126 million contract. Even after every other premier shortstop signed monster contracts and a new CBA raised the luxury tax $20 million, Story got a contract only $2.5 million more per year than MLBtraderumors predicted. Story’s $22.33 million AAV also compares favorably to other big infield bats who signed this winter:

Javier Baez: $22.33 million
Carlos Correa: $35 million
Corey Seager: $32.5 million
Freddie Freeman: $27 million
Kris Bryant: $26 million
Marcus Semien: $25 million

It should be noted that many of these players signed before the lockout, when the CBA was still $210 million and there was no universal DH, and arguably none who possess the package of skills that Story does. Even though the Red Sox are now over the first luxury tax threshold, this is a completely reasonable deal that they had to make.

Story’s contract also comes with a unique quirk. He has the ability to opt-out after the 2025 season, but if he does, the Red Sox can add a seventh year to the deal that will override the opt out. Ultimately, it’s unlikely that Story will use the opt-out, as he will be 33 years old and unlikely to get more than $23.33 million a year, but it’s a clause that I’ve never seen before.

The more interesting aspect of the deal isn’t the $140 million or the opt-out but rather the six-year commitment. Obviously, the Red Sox have Bogaerts at shortstop, but he famously has an opt-out clause at the end of the 2022 season that he had indicated he’s going to use. The signing of Story gives the Red Sox issuance if Bogaerts decides to leave or a long-term solution at second base if he re-signs.

What complicates the matter is the collection of middle-infield prospects in the Red Sox system. Jeter Downs had a disastrous season in his first taste of Triple-A, but he still has high-end potential. Second baseman Nick Yorke broke out with a .325 batting average, and first-round pick Marcelo Mayer is one of the best prospects in baseball. The signing of the Story might block all three of those guys, especially if Bogaerts re-signs.

It’s foolish, however, to base major league actions on the strength of a minor league prospect. As Downs has shown, progress is not linear, and a lot can happen to even the safest of minor leaguers. The Red Sox needed to get a player like Story, and no amount of minor league talent could have prevented them from getting their guy.