A Red Sox perspective at their rival’s offseason moves

How have the wave of MLB offseason moves affected the Red Sox?

It has been an underwhelming offseason for the Red Sox, to put it mildly. The so-called “interest kings” have been linked to a number of big-time free agents but have instead inked short-term deals with Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, James Paxton, Matt Strahm, and Jake Diekman. That was, until this morning.

A few short hours ago, it was reported that the Red Sox and star infielder Trevor Story had come to terms on a whopping 6-year/$140M contract. The former Colorado man will now call second base and Fenway Park his home. Chaim Bloom is often criticized for his lack of spending, well, he made sure to shut those naysayers up in a hurry today.

Though the Red Sox have done little to impress this offseason beyond signing Story, the same came not to be said about their AL rivals. From Toronto to Seattle, the Red Sox’s greatest competition in the American League have all added pieces to their already high-powered rosters. Here’s a team-by-team breakdown of how those moves affect the Red Sox.

Red Sox Rival #1: Toronto Blue Jays

No team in the American League has lost more talent than the Toronto Blue Jays. Cy Young winner Robbie Ray departed for Seattle, power-hitting second baseman Marcus Semien went to the Rangers, and starter Steven Matz signed with the Cardinals. That’s three key pieces of a 91 win roster than won’t be back in 2022.

The Blue Jays, however, have made a valiant effort to replace them. To fill in for Robbie Ray, Toronto signed Giants ace Kevin Gausman. After years of inconsistent performance for the Orioles, Braves, and Reds, Gausman finally put it together last year with an All-Star campaign. He was durable enough to start a league-leading 33 games while finishing in the top 10 in ERA (2.81) and strikeouts (227).

The knock-on Gausman is that he’s really only had one good season, and even that came with a caveat. His performance noticeably dropped off as the season went along, as he posted 3.81 ERA in his last 21 starts, more in line with his career numbers. The Blue Jays are banking on around 13 great starts in an up-and-down nine-year career, and it remains to be seen if that’s a worthy investment.

To replace Matz, the Blue Jays brought in Mariners left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. After two years as one of the worst pitchers in baseball, Kikuchi put it together in last year’s first half, pitching to a 3.48 ERA and earning a stop on the AL All-Star team.

In the second half, however, Kikuchi fell back to his 2019-2020 ways, posting an ERA near six and getting battered to the tune of a 300/.381/.521 slash line. The Blue Jays, though, chose to bank on the promise he showed early on and gave him a three year/$36 million contract.

When you look under the hood, it’s easy to show why the Blue Jays are excited by Kikuchi. He has struck out over a batter per inning over the last two years, a result of his fastball gaining nearly three miles per hour since 2019.

He has been durable enough to start 70 games over the previous three seasons, and while he has not put it together consistently enough to be considered a frontline starter, he has all the makings of a back-end stalwart.

Kikuchi, though, is an excellent matchup for the Red Sox. Kikuchi has struggled mightily against right-handers, allowing a .282/.349/.501 slash line over his career. With a lineup that includes right-handed sluggers like J.D Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Bobby Dalbec, the Red Sox should have no problem handling Kikuchi.

Finally, to indirectly replace the loss of Semien, the Blue Jays traded four prospects to the Athletics for third baseman Matt Chapman. Chapman has built a reputation as one of, if not the best, defenders in baseball, and it’s warranted. Chapman has totaled an incredible 48 Outs Above Average over the last five seasons, winning three Gold Gloves and a Platinum Glove in the process.

The question with Chapman has never been his glove but his bat. Chapman has considerable power, topping the 20 home run threshold three times, but his swing-and-miss tendencies limit his offensive value.

Chapman has always had big strikeout numbers, but he took it to another level in 2021, finishing second in the American League with 202 strikeouts. His .210/.314/.403 was easily the worst of his career, leaving concern over what kind of offensive value he will provide going forward.

The good news for the Blue Jays is that their lineup is so deep that they don’t need Chapman to be an offensive force. Chapman was brought in to play defense, and in a division stacked with right-handed pull hitters, a plus defender at third is indispensable.

His acquisition also allows Santiago Espinal to shift to second base and platoon with Cavan Biggio, who is a disaster against left-handed pitching.

So did the Blue Jays get better this offseason? That remains to be seen, but there’s no question that the players they brought in can at least adequately fill in for the ones who departed. With the continued progression of young superstars like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the Blue Jays appear to be the team to beat in the AL East.

Red Sox Rival #3: Tampa Bay Rays

The biggest news of the Rays this offseason may be what they didn’t do. It was reported that the team reportedly offered Freddie Freeman a six year/$150 million contract, a deal that would have been easily the largest in the franchise’s history. Freeman eventually signed with the Dodgers, but this pursuit could indicate an organizational shift in philosophy.

The moves that the Rays have made, however, haven’t blown anyone away. Their biggest acquisition thus far has been Corey Kluber, a two-time Cy Young winner. Kluber was a solid mid-rotation option last year for the Yankees before missing two months with a shoulder injury.

This has been a common theme for Kluber, who has made just 24 starts over the last three years. Kluber can still be reasonably effective when healthy, but that has been a rare occurrence.

The Rays have also lost several key pieces this offseason, including DH Nelson Cruz, versatile reliever Colin Mchugh, and starter Michael Wacha. As we know, however, the Rays will always be competitive no matter how many players they lose, and a full season of Wander Franco should more than offset those losses.

That and their sudden willingness to spend money should worry all Red Sox fans moving forward.

Red Sox Rival #4: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox entered the offseason with one of the best rosters in baseball and without a prominent area of need. Many of their issues last year were caused by freak injuries to key players such as Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal, and Luis Robert. Despite this, they easily won the AL Central with 93 wins and look like clear favorites to repeat as AL Central champs.

Even with their rosy outlook, the White Sox continued to add this offseason. They began this offseason by signing reliever Kendall Graveman, who broke out with a 1.77 ERA in a season split between the Astros and Mariners. It was quite the surprising season for Graveman, as he entered 2021 with a career 4.44 ERA.

It’s hard to bank on a guy with one season to his name, but Graveman added over two miles per hour to his fastball and had a career-high strikeout season, so there is a solid chance that Graveman’s breakout was for real.

Since the lockout has ended, the White Sox have made a pair of minor moves, signing former Red Sox reliever Joe Kelly and veteran utility man Josh Harrison. I wrote last month about why Kelly would be a good-free agent for the Red Sox, and he will make a strong White Sox bullpen even stronger.

Harrison, meanwhile, has produced two straight above-average offensive seasons to go along with his defensive versatility and speed. He’s not the All-Star player he was in Pittsburgh, but he is still worthy of everyday at-bats.

These moves don’t jump off the table, but they take a true contender and take them to an even higher level. The White Sox will undoubtedly be one of the Red Sox’s greatest threats in their race to a pennant.

Red Sox Rival #5: Houston Astros

One thing that should encourage Red Sox fans is that the only team better than them in the American League last year has gotten worse this offseason. The Astros began the offseason by subtracting reliever Kendall Graveman and starter Zack Greinke from the roster. These departures may seem minor, but each has played critical roles in the team’s World Series runs.

Then there was the loss of free-agent superstar Carlos Correa. Correa had had an up-and-down career with the Astros that was riddled with injuries, but he showed flashes of true brilliance in his seven years with Houston.

This past season was one of his best, as he posted a 131 OPS+ and won the Platinum Glove. This is a critical loss for the Astros, one that leaves a massive hole in both the field and the lineup and thrusts unproven youngster Jeremy Pena into the shortstop position.

There are some positives for the Astros in 2022. Justin Verlander, who missed essentially all of the last two years with Tommy John surgery, has already made his spring training debut and looked sharp.

The young starting pitchers will have another season under their belt, and Alex Bregman will be back after an injury-plagued 2021 season. Still, it’s impossible to say that the Astros have improved this winter, and that should be music to Red Sox fans’ ears.

Red Sox Rival #6: Seattle Mariners

In the 20 years since their last postseason appearance, the Mariners have never gotten closer to the promised land than they did last year. A 10-1 run at the end of September thrust them right into the heart of the wild-card race, and though they were eliminated on the last day of the season, their run awoke a suffering fanbase and gave hope for the future.

To their credit, the Mariners have continued to add to their already solid core. They began by signing Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five year/$115 contract. Ray’s 2021 season was unquestionably an anomaly, and though he is unlikely to ever repeat the performance, he has always been among the league leaders in strikeout rate and is well worth the $23-million-a- year price tag.

The Mariners also made a move to bolster their offense, acquiring All-Star Adam Frazier from the Padres for a pair of prospects. Frazier was one of the most coveted players at last year’s trade deadline with a .324 batting average but struggled to the tune of a .662 OPS in San Diego.

Still, Frazier is a career .281 hitter with solid on-base skills, and his versatility will allow his new employer to use him in a variety of ways.

Their most significant move, however, came just this past week. They shipped four players, most notably promising starter Justin Dunn, for power-hitting third baseman Eugenio Suarez and sweet-swinging lefty Jesse Winker. There are not many better pure hitters in the game than Winker, who has posted a 140 OPS+ over the last two years.

Winker has always had an exceptional eye and elite bat-to-ball skills, but he has taken his game to the next level by upping his isolated slugging from .181 in his first three years to .260 in the last two. Winker immediately slotted into the middle of the order and became arguably the best hitter on the team.

Though he may have been a salary dump and an afterthought in this trade, Suarez will also provide a boost to the squad. The third baseman has been undone by bad luck, as his .224 BABIP was the lowest of any qualified hitter despite barreling the ball at an elite rate. At the very least, Suarez will hit around 30 home runs and be an adequate replacement for the retired Kyle Seager.

The Mariners still have a number of holes on their roster, most notably at the back of their rotation and in their bullpen. They also have a heavy left-handed lineup that matches up poorly with a Red Sox team that just added two lefties to their relief corps. Still, a 90-win team adding four key pieces is eye-opening, and the Red Sox should expect a hard fight from the Mariners if they are in the wild card race.

Other MLB offseason thoughts

• I’m not going to lie: I really wanted Kyle Schwarber back. I thought his patience and light-tower, all-fields power would be a great fit in the Red Sox lineup, just as he was last season. The contract he got from the Phillies was far from unreasonable. At least he’s out of the AL East.
• There was a world where Kris Bryant signed with the Red Sox and smacked balls all over the monster while providing adequate defense at all four corner positions. That world is not one where he would require a $182 million contract, which is what he got from the Rockies.
• The idea of Freddie Freeman with the Red Sox was always better than the logistics. With Bobby Dalbec having a strong second half and Tristan Casas on his way, it didn’t make sense for the Red Sox to commit long-term to a guy who could only play first base. There may have been a way they could have made it work because, well, it’s Freddie Freeman, but the money is better spent elsewhere.
• I don’t think the Red Sox will get in on the Frankie Montas/Sean Manaea sweepstakes. As I wrote in my last article, both would be good fits to substitute for Chris Sale, but the Red Sox would have to get into a prospect bidding war with several other clubs, and I don’t think they have the capital to do that.
• There is no excuse for the Red Sox not to have made a significant effort for Kenley Jansen. As I’ve written many times, they can not expect to compete with the AL powers without a true closer. A one year/$17 million is a ridiculously small commitment, and it’s mind-blowing that the Red Sox did not match or exceed the Braves’ offer.
• I was never a fan of the Carlos Correa-Red Sox fit. There was just no real need for that kind of long-term financial commitment with Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers in the present and Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, Jeter Downs, and Blaze Jordan in the future. However, when I saw the short-term, low-risk deal he got with the Astros, my initial reaction was “Wow, the Red Sox couldn’t have done that?”
• In his beginning-of-spring press conference, Chaim Bloom mentioned his desire to add a right-handed power bat. No player fits that mold more than Nick Castellanos, who is coming off a career year in 2021. It was truly baffling that the Red Sox appeared to not even make an effort for him, who ended up signing a very reasonable contract with the Phillies.