Four pitchers the Red Sox can acquire to fill in for Chris Sale

Red Sox Target: RHP Michael Pineda

Let’s be clear about Michael Pineda: He’s not going to be a frontline starting pitcher. Injury plagued-season after injury-plagued season has sapped Pineda of his once elite stuff, and his fastball velocity dropped a mile and a half last year. The result? A career-low 7.2 K/9 and 22.1 whiff rate. He is also still a significant injury risk, as he has topped just 30 starts just once in his eleven seasons.

Yet here’s the thing: Pineda knows how to pitch. He’s never had a walk rate above 3.0 BB/9, including a rate of 1.7 in two of the last three seasons. He’s a master at getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone, ranking in the 96th percentile in chase rate.

And while his fastball has undoubtedly lost some zip, Pineda still possesses a versatile five-pitch mix that he can throw in any count.

So no, Pineda is no longer able to overpower hitters, but there is something to be said for a veteran pitcher who pounds the strike zone and knows how to set up hitters. He may not be a frontline pitcher like some of the pitchers we’ll see later on this list, but he is a solid bet to give a team quality innings at a low price.

Red Sox target: RHP Johnny Cueto

It’s been a rough few years for Johnny Cueto. A rash of injuries, most notably an August 2018 Tommy John surgery, has limited him to just 71 starts over the five seasons following his 2016 All-Star campaign. When he has been on the mound, he hasn’t been the same top-level pitcher, posting a sub-500 record and a 4.38 ERA in that span.

Yet like Pineda, there is something to be said for a veteran pitcher who knows how to sequence hitters. Cueto still possesses a five-pitch mix, including a fastball, changeup, and slider that he throws 23% of the time or higher.

His changeup, once considered one of the best in baseball during his prime, has actually gained vertical movement over the last few years, while his fastball velocity was his highest since 2015. It may not be vintage Cueto, but it’s clear there is still something left in the tank.

Cueto is also coming off a hopeful 2021 campaign in which he threw his most innings since 2017 and his lowest ERA since 2016. The underlying numbers were promising as well, as his 9.7% swinging-strike rate and 31.4% chase rate were his highest since 2017.

Cueto’s ability to throw all five pitches for strikes and disrupt hitters’ timing would fit well in a division filled with power-hitting righties, and he proved last year that he’s worth taking a risk on.

Red Sox Target: RHP Tyler Mahle

One of the four teams to vote against the $220 million luxury tax threshold, the Cincinnati Reds have entered this de facto second offseason with a clear motive to tear their team down. They began by flipping starter Sonny Gray to the Twins for top prospect Chase Petty, then traded All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker and power-hitting third baseman, Eugenio Suarez, to the Mariners for a collection of prospects. The yard sale continued into Wednesday as the team swapped closer Amir Garett for journeyman Mike Minor.

It’s clear that besides legend Joey Votto, nobody is off-limits in trade talks. That would include the team’s top two remaining starters, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo. While Castillo, a former All-Star who has some of the best stuff of any starter in the game, maybe outside Boston’s price range, Mahle has both the swing-and-miss stuff and contract controllability to be a perfect fit in the Red Sox rotation.

For his first couple of years in the majors, Mahle has always had the underlying numbers to be a frontline starter but wasn’t able to put it all together. His strikeout and walk ratios were near or above-average, but his ERA over his full two years was an unsightly 5.06.

Yet he has made real adjustments over the last two years, cutting his ERA to 3.72, increasing his K rate from 8.9 to 10.7, and dropping his home rate from 1.74 in 2019 to 1.20 in 2021.

Mahle also comes with an affordable contract, as he is arbitration-eligible for the next two years and is expected to make just $5.6 million in 2022. Mahle may cost some prospect capital, but because he lacks the pedigree of his teammate Castillo, the price will be far cheaper.

With the durability to make a league-leading 33 starts in 2021 and elite strikeout numbers, Mahle has both the high floor and high ceiling to be a frontline starter, something the Red Sox desperately needed.

Red Sox Target: RHP Frankie Montas

Like the Reds, the Athletics are in the middle of a fire sale. Less than a week after the lockout ended, the Athletics have already traded their two best players, sending power-hitting first baseman Matt Olson to the Braves and defensive wizard Matt Chapman to the third baseman. With talent remaining on the roster, there are still pieces to be moved from an 86-win team in 2021.

Two starters who could provide an immediate boost to the Red Sox rotation are Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea. Each starter posted an ERA under 4.00 last season and struck out around 200 batters, and neither is making enough money to push the Red Sox above the luxury tax threshold.

Yet while both pitchers are frontline starters, one is clearly a better option than the other. Manaea is left-handed, a bad matchup in the AL East where the Blue Jays and the Yankees have basically assembled All-Star teams of the right-handed hitters. And while Montas is under control for two more seasons, Manaea is a free agent at the end of 2022.

Besides being right-handed and controllable, there’s a lot to like about Montas’ profile. He struggled to the tune of 6.20 ERA in April but rebounded with a 2.94 ERA the rest of the way. The key to his success was increasing the use of his nasty splitter, holding batters to a .126 batting average and .168 slugging percentage on the pitch.

He also significantly cut down his walk rate, dropping his BB/9 from 3.9 to 2.7. The result was a 3.37 ERA and 207 strikeouts, both of which ranked 4th in the American League.

Equal parts talented, young and controllable, it will take a steep price for the Red Sox to acquire Montas. Yet Montas showed last year that he can be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and if the Red Sox are serious about competing in 2022, they will bring in the big right-hander.