How Red Sox could be impacted if MLB bans the shift
What potential restrictions on defensive shifts means for the Red Sox
The ongoing lockout preventing the Boston Red Sox from opening the major league portion of training camp remains in a stalemate. The sides are deadlocked after the latest round of negotiations failed to make much progress. While they appear to be far apart on several key issues, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reveals a noteworthy update: The MLBPA agreed to grant the league the ability to implement three on-field rule changes with a 45-day notice, beginning during the 2023 season. Those changes the owners have focused on include a pitch clock, larger bases and the banning of shifts.
MLB wants to speed up the game with a pitch clock but they also want to eliminate defensive shifts, which would increase offense and therefore prolong innings. At this point, the owners are simply looking for more topics to argue about with these counterintuitive demands.
As senseless as it may seem from the league’s side, the players showing a willingness to discuss these on-field changes could be a significant step. If the league is eager to implement these changes, the players hold a bargaining chip that could help close the gap on the core economic issues.
It’s far from a done deal but it’s becoming increasingly likely that we’ll see these changes by next year. While players should be able to seamlessly adapt to the pitch clock and larger bases, placing restrictions on defensive shifts will have a noticeable impact that will hinder certain teams more than others.
How banning the shift alters the Red Sox defense
The Red Sox ranked 13th in the majors last year with a 32.7 shift percentage, per Baseball Savant. While that placed them in the middle of the pack, Boston shifted more than any other AL East team.
Teams shift more frequently against left-handed hitters and the Red Sox were no exception. Boston utilized the shift only 14.1% of the time against right-handed hitters but their 66.7% rate against lefties was the fifth-highest in the majors. The Red Sox were effective in using the shift against lefties, limiting them to a .295 wOBA, which ranked sixth in the majors in those situations.
Fenway’s unique dimensions create an ideal setting for shifting against pull-heavy lefties. The extreme pull hitters will try to wrap a fly ball around the Pesky Pole but the fences move much further back fairly quickly in right field. Elite sluggers can beat the shift by hitting over it but for the average hitter, deep fly balls to right-center field often turn into routine outs. With the shift taking away many grounders and line drives to the right side of the infield, Fenway can be a tough place for lefties who don’t use the opposite field. That advantage would be mitigated if the Red Sox were no longer allowed to shift their defense.
The towering green wall in left field may explain why the Red Sox are less inclined to shift against right-handed hitters and why they have been far less successful when doing so (.400 wOBA). Perhaps it’s a strategy they should have used more on the road where the Green Monster isn’t inviting hitters to alter their approach at the plate.
Boston’s left side of the infield is arguably the weakest in the majors with Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts both ranking near the bottom at their respective positions in most defensive metrics. Having an extra defender on their side to cover their lack of range would seem to be beneficial in certain situations. Boston won’t be able to test that theory for much longer if the owners get their way.
How banning the shift alters the Red Sox offense
Not many regulars in the Red Sox lineup had to face the shift on a regular basis last season. If Kyle Schwarber re-signs with the team, he would benefit most from the elimination of the shift. Opposing defenses shifted 81.2% of the time against Schwarber last season, the 19th-highest rate in the majors (minimum 250 plate appearances). In the rare event that the defense didn’t shift against him, Schwarber made them pay by producing an elite .435 wOBA.
Schwarber was the only Red Sox hitter who ranked in the top-50 in shift percentage. Next on that list was Hunter Renfroe (68.2%), who is no longer with the team. Granted, he was traded for a player who saw a shift in 58.2% of his plate appearances last season but hopefully Jackie Bradley Jr. won’t be an everyday fixture in the Red Sox lineup.
Among players currently on the Red Sox roster and projected to be a regular in the lineup, Alex Verudgo (48%) saw the highest percentage of shifts last season. However, he actually performed better against the shift (.345 wOBA) than he did against traditional defensive alignments (.318 wOBA).
The Red Sox hitter who benefits most from eliminating the shift is Devers. Opposing defenses shifted against him 46.1% of the time and he produced a .352 wOBA against that alignment compared to a .392 wOBA without the shift.
Enrique Hernandez pulled the ball more than any qualified hitter in the Red Sox lineup last year but since he’s a right-handed hitter, the rate at which he saw the shift was limited to a below-average 31.4% last season. That being said, his .346 wOBA without the shift was notably improved from the .318 wOBA he produced against it, which suggests he would benefit from the rule change.
Bobby Dalbec and Christian Vazquez had extreme splits when seeing the shift compared to a traditional alignment but defenses didn’t shift against them very often. J.D. Martinez and Bogaerts seldom saw a shift and their production shows they didn’t seem to mind facing them.
Since nearly half the schedule is against teams from within their own division and the other AL East teams shift at a below-average level, Boston’s lineup doesn’t benefit as much as many other teams do by banning the shift. Where it might matter most is in the postseason if they face Houston again. The Astros led the AL with a 46.2% shift rate and led the majors by a wide margin with a staggering 81.5% against lefties.
Most hitters are going to benefit from banning the shift but barring a reunion with Schwarber, it won’t be a significant boost for the Red Sox lineup. Boston will feel the change more on the defensive end but considering they ranked below average in shift percentage when they won a World Series in 2018, we know manager Alex Cora can adapt.
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