Position breakdown of how Red Sox stack up against AL East competition
How do the Red Sox compare to the rest of the AL East?
The 2021 AL East was arguably the most stacked division in baseball history. No division had ever featured four 90-win teams before, but the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees all exceeded that threshold last year.
But 2021 is old news. 2022 is a brand-new year, and each roster comes into the season after undergoing some minor turnover. As we (hopefully) approach Opening Day, I decided to look at how the Red Sox measure up to the other powerhouses in the AL East.
To come up with a quantitative answer, I assigned point totals to each position. Having the best player at a position in the division gets you ten points, having the second-best gets you seven points, third is five points, fourth is three points, and fifth is one point. For the starting rotation, those numbers move to twenty, fifteen, ten, five, and one.
This is not a perfect way to predict team success, of course, but it should give us an idea of how much work the Red Sox still need to do in building a competitive team.
Red Sox catcher vs the AL East
- Mike Zunino, Rays (10)
- Gary Sanchez, Yankees (7)
- Christian Vazquez, Red Sox (5)
- Danny Jansen, Blue Jays (3)
- Pedro Severino, Orioles (1)
Though each of the AL East catchers produced positive value in 2021, one clearly stood out from the pack. After spending the first eight years of his career failing to live up to the expectations that come with being the number three overall pick, Mike Zunino broke out in 2021. The 30-year-old blasted a career-high 33 home runs and posted a solid 138 OPS+ to go along with his usual top-level defense. His 3.8 WAR was nearly three times as much as any other catcher in the division.
The second spot came down to two rivals who had down seasons. Christian Vazquez has the edge on Gary Sanchez defensively and had a nearly 50-point advantage in average, but Sanchez drew a lot more walks and hit for significantly more power. Ultimately, I chose to give the edge to Sanchez, as his career OPS is 30 points higher than Vazquez.
The last two spots go to Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen and Orioles catcher Pedro Severino. Jansen was solid in limited action last year, slugging .473 and homering 11 times in just 70 games. He should get an even bigger role in 2022. Severino, meanwhile, was around league average last year and is pretty much just a placeholder for top prospect Adley Rutchsman.
Red Sox first baseman vs the AL East
- Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (10)
- Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (7)
- Luke Voit, Yankees (5)
- Bobby Dalbec, Red Sox (3)
- Ji-Man Choi, Rays (1)
Much like catcher, there is a clear number one first baseman in the AL East. Vlad Guerrero Jr. put together an MVP-caliber campaign in 2021, leading the league in home runs (48), on-base percentage (.401), slugging (.601), and OPS (1.002). As he enters his age 23 season, there appears to be no limit to what he can do.
Ryan Mountcastle similarly enjoyed a breakout season in 2021. He homered 33 times and drove in 89 runs, both easily setting career highs in just his second season in the big leagues. The next step for Mountcastle will be being more selective at the plate: He walked just 41 times against 161 strikeouts.
While Mountcastle and Guerrero enjoyed successful campaigns last year, Luke Voit struggled through injuries and had a down season. Injuries limited him to just 68 games, and he saw his OPS drop 50 points. Still, Voit is just two years removed from leading the league in home runs, and his walk rate actually improved in 2021, so he gets the benefit of the doubt.
If this list were based solely on last season’s second half, Bobby Dalbec would be second on this list behind Vlad Guerrero Jr. From June 10 on, Dalbec slashed .276/.336/.580 with 19 home runs and 54 RBIs. He still needs to show he can produce over a full season, but Dalbec is a prime breakout candidate entering 2022.
Rounding out the top five is left-handed slugger Ji-Man Choi. The Rays use a lot of different players at the cold corner, but as the strong side of a platoon, Choi is likely to receive the most at-bats. There is not much exciting about his profile: He’ll hit some home runs, he’ll draw some walks, and that’s about it.
Red Sox second baseman vs the AL East
- Brandon Lowe, Rays (10)
- Gleyber Torres, Yankees (7)
- Christian Arroyo, Red Sox (5)
- Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays (3)
- Rougned Odor, Orioles (1)
With Marcus Semien leaving the Blue Jays for Texas, Brandon Lowe becomes the best second baseman in the division. Lowe followed up his breakout 2020 season by finishing second among all second basemen with 39 home runs and third in RBIs (99) and OPS+ (142). He enters 2022 as not just the best hitter on the Rays, but as one of the best left-handed hitters in the American League.
Gleyber Torres was also expected to be considered among the best second basemen in baseball, but two straight down seasons have caused his stock to fall significantly. After leading all second basemen with 38 home runs in 2019, Torres has hit just 12 home runs over the last two years. That power outage, along with his -10 Outs Above Average defense at shortstop, has made him almost unrecognizable from the apparent budding superstar he was three years ago. The Yankees can only hope that a move back to second base can help him return to the player he once was.
Christian Arroyo might have only played 57 games for the Red Sox last year, but he may have had more signature moments than any other second baseman on this list. Overall, Arroyo slashed .262/.324/.445 and produced 1.4 WAR. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but they’re a clear victory for a guy with 85 career games spread across four seasons entering 2022.
The last two spots go to a pair of power hitters with very different styles. Cavan Biggio got displaced by Semien in 2021, but he still posted a solid 12.6% walk rate. He will return to the keystone position looking to recapture the magic of his rookie season (.234/.364/.429). Rougned Odor, meanwhile, is as a free-swinging as it gets, as evident by his career 5.8 BB rate. He signed a one-year deal with the Orioles before the lockout to provide a stopgap to a younger player.
Red Sox shortstop vs the AL East
- Bo Bichette, Blue Jays (10)
- Wander Franco, Rays (7)
- Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (5)
- Gio Urshela, Yankees (3)
- Jorge Mateo, Orioles (1)
This was the toughest decision on the list. The AL East features three top-tier shortstops, each with a solid case as the best in the division. Ultimately, I chose to give the nod to the Blue Jays’ Bo Bichette. Playing in the shadow of Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bichette is a legitimate star in his own right. He is coming off a season where he led the league with 191 hits and finished in the top ten in the AL in both average (.298) and stolen bases (25). He also played in 159 of the possible 162 games and hit 29 home runs. As he enters his age 24 season, it’s scary to think that Bichette’s best baseball is still in front of him.
As great Bichette is, he might be eclipsed as the best young shortstop in the division by Wander Franco. The number one prospect in baseball was called up in June and proved he belonged from his very first game. Franco ended the season with a terrific .288/.347/.463 slash line and somehow produced 3.5 WAR in 70 games. The sky is the limit for the 22-year-old.
Taking a backseat to the rising youngsters, Xander Bogaerts would be the top shortstop in many other divisions. He started the year on an absolute tear that earned him a starting spot in the All-Star Game. Bogaerts may have a better track record than Bichette and Franco, but a mediocre second half (.254/.346/.426 from July 1 on) and poor defense causes him to slip to third in these rankings.
Gio Urshela transformed himself from middling utilityman to top-tier shortstop with two incredible seasons from 2019-2020, but he fell back down to earth in 2021. His 96 OPS+ was a 41-point drop from 2020, while his 1.0 WAR was a third of what it was in 2019. That begs the question: Which season is more accurately a reflection of the player he really is?
Jorge Mateo was one day considered the Yankees shortstop of the future, but now he is just a journeyman middle infielder who can run a little bit. He’ll be the Orioles starting shortstop in 2022 because, well, someone has to be.
Red Sox third baseman vs the AL East
- Rafael Devers, Red Sox (10)
- D.J Lemahieu, Yankees (7)
- Yandy Diaz, Rays (5)
- Santago Espinal, Blue Jays (3)
- Kelvin Gutierrez, Orioles (1)
The fourth easy decision out of the five positions discussed thus far, Rafael Devers has steadily progressed from promising youngster to MVP candidate. His defense is up-and-down (to put it generously), but there is nothing wrong with his bat. Devers set career highs with 62 walks and 38 home runs, and he ranked in the top 5 in the AL in RBIs for the third straight season.
Like many of his Yankees teammates, D.J Lemahieu’s production fell off considerably in 2021. The 2020 batting champion saw his batting average fall 96 points and his slugging fall over 200 points. His exit velocity and hard-hit percentage both dropped, and his strikeout rate climbed four points. He gets the benefit of the doubt based on his pedigree, but there are reasons to be concerned.
Rays third baseman Yandy Diaz has had a fascinating career. He’s always hit the ball extremely hard, but because he hits the ball on the ground so often, he’s never hit more than 14 home runs in the season. He’s an elite contact hitter, but rarely walks due to his tendency to expand the zone (though he did get better in 2021). Overall, Diaz is an above-average hitter who mashes lefties and can adequately play both second and third base.
Similar to Danny Jansen, Santiago Espinal excelled in limited action for the Blue Jays, hitting .311 over his 222 at-bats. He doesn’t hit for much power, and his exit velocity stats suggest he was significantly boosted by batting ball luck. Still, it’s not every day a rookie hits .311, and the departure of Marcus Semien opens up a spot in the lineup.
Rounding out the third base position is the Orioles’ Kelvin Gutierrez. Gutierrez doesn’t do anything particularly well, and like many of his teammates, he is just there to provide a bridge to the next great Orioles team.
Red Sox left fielder vs the AL East
- Randy Arozarena, Rays (10)
- Joey Gallo, Yankees (7)
- Loudres Gurriel Jr., Blue Jays (5)
- Alex Verdugo, Red Sox (3)
- Austin Hays, Orioles (1)
By far the strongest position on the list, each team in the AL East boasts an above-average left fielder. The cream of the crop is the Rays’ Randy Arozarena, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year. Arozarena had already burst onto the scene with a record-setting ten home runs in the 2020 postseason, and he proved it was no fluke in 2021, leading all AL East left fielders in OPS+ with 131 and steals with 20.
Though Arozarena may have been the best hitting left-fielder in the division, it was Joey Gallo who totaled the highest WAR. The big left fielder had the best full season of his career, setting personal highs in OPS+ (121), walks (a league-leading 111), and WAR (4.7). Still, his performance dropped off noticeably after being shipped to the Yankees (.160/.303./.404), which causes him to slip behind Arozarena.
While he may get lost in the weeds of more flashy teammates, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. should be considered a top tier left fielder. Gurriel Jr. had shown glimpses of greatness in his first three seasons in the bigs, and he finally stayed healthy enough to prove what he could do. He set career highs with 21 home runs, 84 RBIs, and 2.7 WAR, though his free-swinging approach (5.9% walk rate) limits his overall value.
Only eleven players with as many at-bats can top Alex Verdugo’s .294 batting average over the last two seasons. His defensive numbers are dragged down by being forced to play center field last year, but he is more than adequate at either corner outfield position. The next step to taking his game to even higher levels will be hitting for more power and drawing more walks.
The Orioles’ Austin Hays is the tough-luck loser here, as he gets the number five spot in the rankings even after a breakout campaign. The 25-year-old smacked 22 home runs to go along with solid defense at the 7, accounting for 3.1 WAR. In a position this deep, however, his low on-base percentage and lack of track record lock him into the last spot.
Red Sox center fielder vs the AL East
- Cedric Mullins, Orioles (10)
- Kiké Hernández, Red Sox (7)
- George Springer, Blue Jays (5)
- Kevin Kiermaier, Rays (3)
- Aaron Hicks, Yankees (1)
Finally, an Oriole! Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins is the top center fielder in the AL East after a 30-30, All-Star campaign. He has a strong argument as the biggest breakout star in all of baseball last year, as his home runs and stolen base totals more than tripled his career totals to that point. He’ll have to prove it wasn’t a fluke, but Mullins is the centerpiece of this rebuilding Orioles team.
Another breakout AL East star, Kiké Hernández accounted for 4.9 WAR on the back of some spectacular defense. No outfielder in the game is better at getting jumps on balls, and those instincts allowed him to account for 9 OAA. Paired with 20 home runs and a career-high walk total, Hernandez was one of the most valuable outfielders in baseball in 2021.
The Blue Jays big-ticket offseason acquisition, George Springer lived up to expectations, albeit in limited action. His 143 OPS+ was the second-best of his career, and his 22 home runs in 78 games represented one of the best rates in baseball. His injury-plagued season was more of the same, though, as he had exceeded the 140-game threshold just once in his career. That and his rising strikeout total prevent him from being higher on the list.
Like Springer, Kevin Kiermaier has had a lot of trouble staying healthy. The three-time Gold Glover has only played more than 130 games once in his career and has exceeded the 100-game mark only two times in the last five seasons. His reckless abandon is part of what makes him such a great defender, but it definitely comes at a price.
Rounding out the AL East centerfielders is the Yankees’ Aaron Hicks. Hicks is basically banking off his terrific 2018 season when he slashed .248/.366/.467 with 27 home runs. In the three seasons since, however, he has averaged just 48 games a season with a line of .223/.338/.410. He could still work the occasional walk and pop the occasional home run, but there’s not much here.
Red Sox right fielder vs the AL East
- Aaron Judge, Yankees (10)
- Teoscar Hernandez, Blue Jays (7)
- Manuel Margot, Rays (5)
- Anthony Santander, Orioles (3)
- Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox (1)
Two All-Star sluggers headline right field in the AL East. The first is Aaron Judge, who finally stayed healthy and put together his best campaign since his magical rookie season. Judge has now posted an OPS+ of at least 143 in every season of his career and is firmly in the conversation of best players in baseball.
Not to be outdone, Teoscar Hernandez had an exceptional season of his own in 2021. The 28-year-old finished in the top 10 in the American League in both average and home runs. He was particularly dominant against left-hand pitchers, annihilating them to the tune of a .372/.407/.744 slash line. Over the last two years, there have been few better hitters than Hernandez, as only five players can top his 150 RBIs since 2020.
Though he can’t match Judge’s or Hernandez’s offensive production, Manuel Margot is still a valuable player due to his spectacular defense. No outfielder could match his 16 Outs Above Average in 2021. While his offense isn’t elite by any stretch of the imagination, he has been near league-average each of the last two seasons, an acceptable figure for a player with his defensive skills.
Hopes were high for Anthony Santander after posting a 135 OPS+ in 2020, but he was unable to repeat the magic. His OPS dropped 170 points, and he produced less WAR in 110 games than he did in 37 games in 2020. He’ll still get opportunities on a rebuilding Orioles team, but it’s clear the shine has worn off.
Jackie Bradley Jr. had an absolutely disastrous season at the plate in 2021, and he’ll return to the Red Sox after an offseason trade, this time as a right fielder. Bradley can still field with the best of them, as evident by his 4 OAA, but his lackluster offense will likely push the Red Sox to go after another outfielder and push Bradley into a reserve role.
Red Sox designated hitter vs the AL East
- Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (10)
- J.D Martinez, Red Sox (7)
- Trey Mancini, Orioles (5)
- Austin Meadows, Rays (3)
- Randall Grichuk, Blue Jays (1)
This was a close decision between the Red Sox’s J.D Martinez and the Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton, but an unbiased journalist, I have to go with Stanton. Like Judge, Stanton was finally able to stay healthy and put up his best numbers since 2017. Even as he enters his age 32 season, Stanton still hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, ranking in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity.
Martinez similarly had a feel-good season in 2021, bouncing back from a disastrous 2020 season to lead the league with 41 doubles and post a 126 OPS+. Martinez will likely never put up the MVP numbers of his 2017-2019 prime, but he proved he is not quite finished yet.
Austin Meadows also had a comeback season in 2021. After breaking out in 2019, Meadows slashed just .205/.296/.371 in the abbreviated 2020 season. While he didn’t quite match the heights of his breakout season, Meadows still hit 27 home runs and posted an OPS+ of 117. He’s likely not as good as his 2019 season nor as bad as his 2020 season, and 2021 should be a good baseline going forward.
After missing the entire 2020 season with colon cancer, the Orioles’ Trey Mancini returned this past season and proved to be more than just a feel-good story. The slugger slashed a respectable .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs. With a full season under his belt, Mancini should be even better in 2022.
With a lineup as strong as the Blue Jays, you would not expect their weakest spot to be DH, but that is arguably the case with Randall Grichuk. Last season, he posted the worst OPS of his career in large part due to a career-worst walk rate. With a team squarely in their contention window, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before he is replaced.
Red Sox starting rotation vs the AL East
- Blue Jays (20)
- Yankees (15)
- Red Sox (10)
- Rays (5)
- Orioles (1)
It seems almost unfair that a team with a lineup as strong as the Blue Jays can also have a stacked rotation, but that is precisely the case. Though they lost reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, they replaced him with another top-line starter in Kevin Gausman. They also locked up number two starter Jose Berrios, whom they acquired at the trade deadline and pitched well down the stretch. Former Cy Young winner Hyun-Jun Ryu fell off considerably from 2020 but is still a solid mid-rotation starter. While Ryu may be on the decline, number four starter Alex Manoah is a prime breakout candidate after posting a 3.22 over 20 starts in his rookie campaign. Ross Stripling fills out the rotation as a solid-if-unspectacular fifth starter.
The Yankees might have the best overall starting pitcher in the division in Gerrit Cole, but the rest of the rotation is filled with question marks. Number two starter Jordan Montgomery was solid in 2021, but he is just one year removed from having an ERA over 5.00 and two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Number three starter Luis Severino has made just three starts in the last three years, while number four starter Jameson Taillon has just two seasons with over 25 starts. Nestor Cortes caught attention with his 2.90 ERA, but even he has just 16 career starts.
Like the Yankees, the Red Sox have tons of questions in their starting rotation. Unlike the Yankees, those questions start at the top with Chris Sale, who missed two full years with arm injuries. Sale returned in August and showed flashes of his old self, but at 33, his health is a huge question mark. All-Star Nathan Eovaldi seems like a safe bet to give the Red Sox quality innings, as does Nick Pivetta, who made 30 capable starts in 2021. But beyond those two, the Red Sox are relying on unproven Tanner Houck, 42-year-old Rich Hill, and the inconsistent Michael Wacha. It’s good the Red Sox added depth this winter because it’s likely they’re going to need it.
The Rays starting rotation was a major reason they got upset by the Red Sox in the ALDS, and they did little to address that need this offseason. Corey Kluber has been their biggest acquisition thus far, but when you’re relying on a 36-year-old who has pitched just 112 innings in the last three years, you’re in trouble. All the Rays can hope for is that unproven youngsters Shane Baz, Shane Mclanahan, and Luis Patino pitch beyond their years and that the electric Tyler Glasnow can provide a boost in his midseason return.
Though other rotations in this division might have some questions marks, none are quite the dumpster fire that the Orioles are. Ace John Means may be an All-Star-caliber starter, but the rest of the rotation is a mess. None of the other four starters had an ERA under five last season, while Zac Lowther and Keegan Akin each had totals well over six. The Orioles are going to allow a lot of runs this year, and they will need to move the fences back a lot more than 10 feet if they want to have even an average rotation.
Red Sox bullpen vs the AL East
- Rays (20)
- Blue Jays (15)
- Yankees (10)
- Red Sox (5)
- Orioles (1)
The Rays always seem to have a great bullpen despite never really having any big names, and this year looks to be no different. They return six relievers who had sub-three ERAs in 2021, a deep and versatile bullpen that can match up against any lineup. The only question is whether they can handle the innings workload thrust on them by a lackluster rotation.
The Blue Jays Achilles heel last year was their bullpen, but there are reasons to believe that it will be better this year. Jordan Romano will have his first full season as the team’s closer after converting all 23 saves last year upon winning the role in mid-May. To give him some support, the Blue Jays signed reliever Yimi Garcia, who possesses a 3.55 ERA over the last three seasons. Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza both return off solid seasons, forming a solid back-end of the bullpen for a team that should have plenty of leads.
Like the Rays, the Yankees have had a strong bullpen in recent years, but there are reasons to be concerned. Closer Aroldis Chapman is entering his age 34 season and coming off a year in which he had his highest ERA and walk rate since 2011. Jonathan Loaisiga proved to be a solid late-inning option, but there are few other trustworthy options in the bullpen. Veteran Chad Green fell off in the second half, Zack Britton was a disaster, and the rest of the options have never been late-inning relievers.
The Red Sox have even more issues in their bullpen. All-Star closer Matt Barnes had a 10.13 ERA after August 7, a performance so bad that he was left off the postseason issues. Set-up men Hirokazu Sawamura and Darwinzon Hernandez both have struggled with control, and free agents Adam Ottavino and Hansel Robles remain unsigned. Garrett Whitlock nearly single-handily saved the bullpen as a rookie last year, but if he falls off, the Red Sox are in serious trouble.
If you thought the Orioles rotation was bad, wait until you see their bullpen. Their 2021 relief ERA was over half a run higher than any other team baseball, and the names coming out of the ‘pen are known only by the most die-hard of baseball fans. Relief pitching is usually the last piece of the puzzle a team completes before contending and given that the Orioles are a year away from being competitive, their bullpen should be a mess for the foreseeable future.
Red Sox vs the AL East results
- Blue Jays- 82
- Yankees – 82
- Rays – 81
- Red Sox – 62
- Orioles – 29
Wow. This may be a flawed way to measure which team will win the AL East, but it’s safe to say that the Red Sox have the fourth best roster in the AL East. They have a lot of work to do if they want any chance of competing in this stacked division.
Finally, just for fun, I decided to make a lineup featuring the best players at each position in the division.
- Bo Bichette, SS
- Aaron Judge, RF
- Vlad Guerrero Jr., 1B
- Rafael Devers, 3B
- Giancarlo Stanton, DH
- Randy Arozarena, LF
- Brandon Lowe, 2B
- Mike Zunino, C
- Cedric Mullins, CF
SP: Gerritt Cole
Next. 5 free agents the Red Sox should avoid. dark