5 moves the Red Sox should make when the MLB lockout ends
Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox have work to do when the lockout ends
With the start of Spring Training games officially delayed, and the delay of regular season games becoming more of a possibility, there is still no telling when the MLB lockout will end – though meetings this week are providing reasons to be hopeful that a deal may come soon. But until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached, teams and players are not permitted to have any contact with each other. What teams can do right now is make sure they are as prepared as possible for whenever the lockout does end. If I was a betting man, and sometimes I am, I would put my money on Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom being the most prepared MLB executive for when baseball is back.
There is no doubt that Bloom and the Red Sox front office have a plan. It was ignited with the trade of Mookie Betts, and they haven’t shown any sign of changing course yet. And after an excellent 2021 season in which the team exceeded all preseason predictions by a long shot, there is no reason we shouldn’t trust that Bloom will stick to the plan, and that it will work.
There is obvious work to be done before Bloom’s Opening Day roster is complete. So, the question is – which moves will Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox make when the MLB lockout finally comes to an end?
Red Sox Free Agent Target: 1B/OF Kyle Schwarber
Bringing back Kyle Schwarber should be Bloom’s No. 1 priority. The impact he had on the clubhouse after arriving at the trade deadline is undeniable, similar to when JD Martinez arrived in Boston before the 2018 season. Bobby Dalbec – who turned his season around during the final two months – credits Schwarber with being a key reason for his second-half improvement. Schwarber is an additional coach in the locker room, and he makes the guys who hit around him better.
And of course, Schwarber absolutely mashes baseballs. He has finished in the top 10% of the league in barrel percentage in four of the past five seasons, exit velocity in each of the past three seasons, and max exit velocity each of the past five seasons, per Baseball Savant. He’s hit 30+ home runs in three of the last four years (not counting the shortened 2020 season) and set career highs in several Statcast metrics during 2021 including wOBA, xSLG, HardHit%, and wRC+.
The defensive woes are an issue, but Schwarber showed glimpses down the stretch of being a serviceable first baseman for just one season. And with the universal DH becoming official in 2022, the possibility of a JD Martinez trade doubles, which means Schwarber could become the full-time Red Sox DH sooner than originally thought.
But let’s not forget that Schwarber has never actually DH’d regularly to this point in his career. If Bloom holds onto Martinez, and worst comes to worst at first base, Schwarber could find a home in left field for the year (or form a platoon with Martinez between LF and DH). After all, the Red Sox did win two World Series with Manny patrolling the Monster.
Why it makes sense:
Schwarber has proven that he can thrive in this city. Letting him leave because of imperfect defensive positioning for one season when he can be the DH for years to come is illogical, and Bloom would not have acquired him in the first place if that was the thought. While the universal DH will likely increase his price tag, the rule change was long suspected and came as no surprise for the 2022 season.
Before Commissioner Rob Manfred announced the change, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Schwarber’s next contract would be in the range of 4 years, $70 million. With everything Schwarber brings to the lineup and clubhouse, Bloom and the Red Sox would be wise to get this deal done as soon as they are allowed to.
Red Sox Free Agent Target: OF Seiya Suzuki
Before the lockout went into effect, the offseason started with star Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki as a dark horse free agent target for several teams. Over the weeks since, Suzuki’s popularity has increased amongst MLB fans, and several teams across the league have been said to have serious interest in the possible superstar. No team, however, has been linked to Suzuki more consistently than the Red Sox.
Suzuki checks several boxes: He’s a right-handed hitting outfielder who hits for power and average (38 home runs, .317 BA in 2021), he’s a plus defender (3x gold glove winner), he’s a fit for the future (turns 28 years old in August), and he will be cost effective (MLB Trade Rumors predicts a Suzuki will land a deal in the range of 5 years, $55 million). Suzuki fits the profile of a classic Bloom signing to this point in his Red Sox tenure, and likely with the highest upside of any of them.
And unlike Schwarber, Suzuki’s fit on the Sox’ roster is obvious. He would immediately slide into right field after the departure of Hunter Renfroe, and by all accounts should be able to play the position at a high level. Right field at Fenway Park is one of the most challenging outfield positions across the league, but Suzuki’s three gold gloves in Japan give him the best combination of age and defensive accolades of any outfielder remaining on the open market.
Why it makes sense:
Adding an outfielder with Suzuki’s capabilities both at the dish and in the field would be a major win for this Red Sox club, especially at his projected contract. A move like this has Chaim Bloom written all over it.
Red Sox Free Agent Target: RHP Ryan Tepera
The 2021 Red Sox Achilles’ heel was undoubtedly its bullpen. While Garrett Whitlock was a savior and Josh Taylor was one of the best pitchers in baseball for a two month stretch, there was very little consistency throughout the rest of the relief staff.
Matt Barnes was an All-Star closer but became untrustworthy almost immediately after signing his new contract. Adam Ottavino was the definition of inconsistent, and most likely will not be back with the team in 2022 (though the door is not completely shut). Hirokazu Sawamura showed flashes of brilliance (he had a 35% whiff% – good for top 5% in the league in 2021), but was derailed by injuries down the stretch. Darwinzon Hernandez showed that his stuff can still be electric, but he has yet to develop the command needed to be an elite bullpen weapon. Ryan Brasier battled back from multiple injuries, but how effective he can be for a full season remains to be seen.
Insert Ryan Tepera. The right-handed reliever’s best pitch was his slider in 2021 – he threw it 44.9% of the time at a 50.6% whiff rate. He also completely abandoned his cutter (his most used pitch in two of the previous three seasons), and the adjustments resulted in the best season of his career at age 33.
Tepera finished 2021 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 61.1 innings. He was a top target at the trade deadline among teams in the market for bullpen help, and the Cubs ultimately sent him crosstown to the White Sox in exchange for a pitching prospect. Tepera ended the season in the top 4% of the league for xERA, xSLG and xwOBA, and threw four innings in the ALDS giving up one earned run on two hits against the Astros.
Why it makes sense:
Signing Tepera doesn’t fix the bullpen, but the move is an excellent start to the process. Tepera made just $800,000 last season and could land a multi-year deal in the $2-3 million annual range when the lockout ends.
Red Sox Trade Target: IF/OF Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte finished fourth in National League MVP voting in 2019 after slashing .329/.389/.592 with 32 home runs, 92 RBIs, and 97 runs scored. After a down season during the abbreviated 2020 campaign that still saw him end with a .287 batting average, the switch-hitter finished 2021 with a .318/.377/.532 slashline, 14 home runs and 50 RBI in 90 games. He has finished in the top 4% of the league in Max EV each of the last two seasons, and was in the top 2% for xBA last year.
Marte is also a versatile defender who can play both middle infield positions and all three outfield positions. That alone makes him an intriguing acquisition when considering how Bloom and Cora prioritize defensive versatility, as do his team-friendly club options through the 2024 season (Marte will make $8M/$10M/$12M over the next three seasons). Marte would slot seamlessly into second base for the Red Sox in 2022, and would provide insurance at shortstop if Xander Bogaerts chooses to test free agency next off season.
With SoxProspects.com estimating Marcelo Mayer’s arrival to come in late 2024, Marte’s current contract could offer the perfect transition into the Mayer era if Bogaerts does in fact depart Boston after the season.
Why would the Diamondbacks trade Marte?
Arizona finished in the basement of the NL West in each of the last two seasons and they have a long road to climb to compete with the Giants, Dodgers and Padres. Marte is entering his age 28 season and the Diamondbacks would be wise to maximize their return on him, rather than waste his prime years on what are likely to be unfulfilling seasons in Arizona. The Diamondbacks could expedite their rebuild by using Marte to bring back a package of prospects who will be entering their prime when the team will be positioned to compete.
What would the Red Sox need to trade to acquire Marte?
The Diamondbacks would likely be seeking a package of prospects in return if they are to part with Marte, perhaps something like a prospect on the fringe of being major league ready, a younger top 10 organizational prospect, and an additional lower-tier prospect. Bloom has done an incredible job of revamping the Red Sox farm system since he took over, but at some point the time will come for him to begin using some of the prospects he’s acquired to go get proven major league talent. And the time to do so may be to acquire a past MVP candidate just entering his prime to fill a glaring positional need at second base.
A package of Jeter Downs, Gilberto Jimenez, and perhaps a lower-tier pitching prospect – like Luis De La Rosa, acquired as a PTBNL in the Andrew Benintendi trade – could get the job done.
Downs projects to arrive in the majors by the end of 2022, per SoxProspects.com, and could fill the starting second base opening in Arizona left by Marte for years to come. Jimenez is the Red Sox’ No. 9 prospect and is projected to reach the majors by 2024. He can play all three outfield positions and projects to have a high ceiling with his incredible athleticism and speed. De La Rosa is a 19-year-old RHP who SoxProspects.com notes has an “Intriguing arm with advanced feel for pitching for his age… Is athletic with a fresh arm and has physical projection… has the athleticism teams look for in a pitcher.”
Why the trade makes sense for both teams:
Marte checks several boxes for Bloom, Cora, and Co. – positional need, defensive versatility, cost effectiveness, and more. Bloom has built up a treasure chest of prospects since shipping Betts and David Price to LA, but not all of them have a place in the Red Sox future. Downs and Jimenez are talented players but can be deemed dispensable to Bloom for the right return. They would both project as future starters for the Diamondbacks, with their potential prime years coming at a time that Arizona should be better positioned to compete in their division. De La Rosa is a wild card prospect with high upside who would provide organizational pitching depth and could find a home in the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff a few years down the line.
Red Sox Trade Target: RHP Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber won the AL Cy Young award during the shortened 2020 season, pacing the league with eight wins, 122 strikeouts, and a 1.63 ERA. In 2021, Bieber was named to the All-Star team for the second time, but only made two appearances after the break while dealing with a shoulder strain that forced him to miss most of the second half. He finished the season at 7-4 with a 3.17 ERA in 16 starts.
Bieber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy over the last three years. But with Francisco Lindor long gone and Jose Ramirez deemed Bleacher Report’s player most likely to be traded, the Guardians could consider fully pressing the reset button by maximizing the return they could receive for Bieber.
Bieber is entering his age 27 season and is under team control until 2025. He will make $5.5M in 2022 and is eligible for arbitration the following two years. His contract is one of the best in baseball when healthy, and if the Guardians are truly considering moving on from Ramirez, they could also be persuaded to part ways with Bieber for the right return.
What would a Shane Bieber trade return look like?
Cleveland could reasonably ask for a cost controlled major league talent, an MLB top 25 prospect, an organizational top 10 prospect, and possibly more to move on from Bieber and his team friendly contract. And with the aforementioned work that Bloom has done to overhaul the Red Sox farm system and depth of talent, he may have the pieces to make a trade happen while holding on to his most prized possessions.
A Red Sox package for Shane Bieber could look like this: Alex Verdugo , Jarren Duran (No. 4 prospect), Jay Groome (No. 8 prospect) and Victor Santos (No. 32 Prospect).
Verdugo is a fan favorite. He’s a solid corner outfielder who has proven he can hit for average and knows how to win. Duran is the Red Sox’ No. 4 prospect on SoxProspects.com, and the No. 25 prospect in baseball per MLB.com. He has elite speed with plus power and projects to be an everyday centerfielder with a high ceiling at the big-league level. Groome is the Red Sox’ No. 8 prospect on SoxProspects.com. He’s battled injuries during his young pro career (he had Tommy John surgery in 2018), but a healthy 2021 showed that the potential is still there after finishing the season at AA Portland with a 2.30 ERA in three starts with the Sea Dogs. Santos is the Red Sox’ No. 34 prospect on SoxProspects.com. At 21 years old, he currently projects to be a depth starter at the big league level.
Why the trade makes sense for both teams:
Bloom added pitching depth before the MLB lockout went into effect, but the need for a front-end starter to accompany Sale and Eovaldi still exists. Bloom has also positioned the organization well to be able trade the likes of a top prospect in Duran and young arms like Groome and Santos. And if previously mentioned moves in this article take place – namely the signings of Schwarber and Suzuki – Verdugo becomes expendable and could be the centerpiece of a trade to address other needs, like adding a former Cy Young winner.
For the Guardians, all signs point to them moving on from Ramirez after the Lindor trade last off-season. And if that’s the case, Bieber is the next logical piece to be moved as they enter full-on rebuild mode. And with his cost-effective contract over the next three seasons, Bieber’s value on the trade market will only decrease as he gets closer to free agency. Moving Bieber at the same time they move Ramirez would expedite their rebuild process.
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