Projections for Red Sox free-agent target Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki’s production should translate well with the Red Sox

When the lockout eventually ends and free agency fires back up again, finding an impact bat to fill a corner outfield spot will be among the top priorities for the Boston Red Sox.

The Hunter Renfroe trade created a void in the outfield, one that won’t entirely be filled by the anemic bat of Jackie Bradley Jr. Boston will be in the market for a right-handed bat to upgrade one of those corner outfield spots and bring balance to the lineup.

The Red Sox have been tied to several outfielders in the rumor mill but one of the more popular targets has been Japanese star Seiya Suzuki.

Suzuki is expected to make the move overseas on the heels of a career year with the Hiroshima Carp in which he hit .317/.433/.636 with 38 home runs, 88 RBI and nine stolen bases.

Those numbers would make him a superstar but we can’t expect his production to continue at that level against the quality of pitching he’ll face in MLB. How a player from a foreign league adapts to the majors is always tricky to predict but we have enough data from Japanese players, as well as major league players who spent a stint in Japan before returning stateside, to build reasonable projections.

Dan Szymbroski of FanGraphs used ZiPS to project Suzuki as a better-than-league-average corner outfielder in a neutral park. These projections are short of All-Star caliber, although there’s room for improvement from a 27-year-old entering the peak of his prime.

ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, which seems fairly reasonable for the production their projection system expects from him during that timeframe.

2022: .287/.351/.480, 81 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 12 SB, 124 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
2023: .285/.350/.488, 77 R, 23 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB, 125 OPS+, 2.5 WAR
2024: .282/.349/.479, 74 R, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 10 SB, 122 OPS+, 2.2 WAR
2025: .281/.347/.479, 72 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 9 SB, 122 OPS+, 2.1 WAR
2026: .278/.341/.466, 67 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 8 SB, 117 OPS+, 1.6 WAR

Since we don’t know where Suzuki will sign yet, these projections are based on neutral park factors without any regard to the batters around him.

Plugging him into a powerful Red Sox lineup would undoubtedly boost some of those numbers, depending on where he’s slotted in the batting order. His solid on-base skills would allow him to pile up runs if he’s hitting near the top and he has the extra-base hitting ability to drive in runs if he’s near the middle of the lineup. As long as Suzuki isn’t buried at the bottom of the lineup, the projections undersell the run production he could achieve with the Red Sox.

Fenway is a hitter-friendly park, although it doesn’t give a boost to home runs. Suzuki could still hit 20+ homers with the Red Sox but we shouldn’t expect a significant leap from the projections if he’s playing half his games at Fenway. This park is built for doubles. ZiPS projects Suzuki to tally 29 doubles in each of his first few seasons before slowly regressing near the end of the contract. That’s a very conservative estimate if his right-handed bat were taking aim at the Green Monster. We should expect Suzuki to crank out more doubles if he joins the Red Sox, which would lead to more overall hits and an uptick in his slash line numbers.

His WAR projections indicate that Suzuki will be a well above-average player but not quite a star. Any increase in offensive production from playing in Boston could push those figures up a bit. The modest WAR projections also might be selling the three-time Gold Glove award winner short on his defensive value. He might not be considered elite in the majors but Suzuki should still be a solid defensive outfielder, at least for the majority of the contract. Fenway has a challenging right field but if he managed to adapt to its unique dimensions, Suzuki could provide enough defensive value to push that WAR total into the 3.0-4.0 range.

Renfroe, the player Suzuki would essentially be replacing in the Red Sox outfield, produced a 1.8 WAR last season, per FanGraphs. Even if he doesn’t exceed his conservative ZiPS projections, Suzuki appears to be an upgrade over Renfroe.

FanGraphs also ran simulations to predict the playoff probability of all 30 teams if Suzuki replaced the club’s worst projected corner outfielder or designated hitter. The Red Sox are projected to have a 40.1% chance of making the playoffs with Suzuki, up nearly 10% from their odds without him. That differential is the eighth-highest among major league teams.

The increased playoff odds says as much about Boston’s lack of viable alternatives to fill a corner outfield spot as it does about Suzuki’s skills. Suzuki is a clear upgrade over the rapidly declining bat of Bradley Jr. or the unproven Jarren Duran. However, we can expect the Red Sox to add to their outfield before Opening Day. If it’s not Suzuki, they’ll find someone in free agency or on the trade market, which would improve their postseason odds.

Suzuki isn’t the best remaining free agent but his encouraging projections suggest he would be an impact player. Based on the team’s need and the expected price tag, Suzuki might be the best fit among the available options if he produces as well as ZiPS expects him to.